timber supply assumptions for the base projections expected 
that forest industries are likely to utilize the economic op- 
portunities to increase net annual growth on their lands. 
What is likely on the forest industry ownerships in the 
South is probably equally likely on the forest industry 
ownerships in the Douglas-fir region in Oregon and 
Washington, the Nation’s other major timber-growing area. 
This simulation responds to that possibility: What would 
happen if forest industry owners took advantage of all the 
economic opportunities to increase timber growth on their 
lands in the Douglas-fir region? 
This simulation does not show much impact on timber 
resources in the South or in timber-producing regions other 
than the Pacific Northwest. There, net annual softwood tim- 
ber growth is increased by 64 percent by 2030 (fig. 4.19), 
and softwood inventories by 41 percent over the base 
projections. 
Billion cubic feet 
2.0 
Although the resource is not much affected in the South, 
softwood sawtimber and pulpwood stumpage prices decrease 
in the South Central region and increase slightly in the 
Southeast from the base. The biggest impact on softwood 
stumpage prices is in the Pacific Northwest. In 2030, those 
prices are 29 percent under the base. 
This stumpage price decline affects softwood lumber pro- 
duction in the Pacific Northwest. In 2030, it is 1.9 billion 
board feet above the base level. Softwood lumber produc- 
tion is about the same as the base levels in the South and 
in the other producing sections. Softwood lumber prices are 
reduced but are only 5 percent below the base in 2030. Soft- 
wood lumber imports are also down, by about 1.2 billion 
board feet in 2030. 
Because of the limited impacts on the timber resource 
in the South, there are no significant changes in the associ- 
ated economic and environmental measures such as employ- 
Increased management 
1990 2000 
2010 2020 2030 
Figure 4.19—Projections of softwood net annual growth on private timberland in the Pacific Northwest, with and without 
increased management intensity on forest industry ownerships in the Douglas-fir region 
227 
