ment and investments. They are all much the same as the 
base. 
Highlights of the Implications of Resource Changes 
The highlights of the implication analyses are: 
1. The base projections of resource changes are the 
product of timberland management that is much more inten- 
sive than that practiced today. They reflect what would 
happen if there continues to be major progress in forestry 
in the South and continued expansion in the technical and 
financial assistance, protection, research, education, and 
management programs that have brought about the improved 
forestry situation in the South in the past. 
Increases in timber harvests even with this more inten- 
sive management are too small to sustain present levels of 
employment in the forest industries. By 2000, employment 
is dropping; by 2030, employment will be some 21 percent, 
or 85,000 people, below 1984 levels. Wages and salaries 
also decline after 2000. 
The drop in employment and income is of great eco- 
nomic importance in the South. The effects will be multi- 
plied as they are spread through other sectors of the econ- 
omy providing goods and services to forest industries. A loss 
of employment in the lumber and wood products industry 
would be multiplied by a factor of 2.3; a loss in the pulp 
and paper industry, by 2.6. 
2. The analyses quantified the extensive interdependence 
among regions, ownerships, and time periods. Any change 
in the demand—supply situation in one region affects the 
demand-supply situation in all other regions. Likewise, any 
change on public or private lands will be offset in part by 
changes on other ownerships. Changes in the demand— 
supply situation in any one time period will affect the situa- 
tion in following periods. As a result of this interdepen- 
dence, a change, such as the recent imposition of a 
Canadian tax on softwood lumber exported to the United 
States, that may be desirable from one standpoint can have 
effects, such as higher domestic stumpage and product 
prices, that are undesirable from another standpoint. 
3. Many of the alternative futures analyzed have little 
or limited impact on the timber resource and the associated 
parts of the economy and the environment. Some, 
however, do have significant impacts. 
Improvements in processing efficiency can extend timber 
supplies and result in a substantial reduction in the rates of 
increase in softwood lumber and softwood stumpage prices. 
The reductions in timberland area simulated in this analy- 
sis have relatively little impact on the timber resource and 
the associated parts of the economy and environment. 
However, this largely reflects the timing of the assumed 
reductions in area—the changes in the first decades are too 
small to show up in a significant way. In the last decades 
of the projection period, there are significant reductions in 
both net annual growth and inventories. In the decades 
beyond 2030, the assumed loss in timberland area (II mil- 
lion acres) would have large impacts on the resource and the 
economy. 
The 25-percent reduction in net annual growth on pine 
plantations, natural pine, and mixed pine—hardwood stands 
significantly affects the resource situation and the associ- 
ated parts of the economy and environment. By 2030, 
softwood inventories are 31 billion cubic feet, or 35 percent, 
below the base projections. There are related and large 
increases in stumpage and lumber prices. These increases, 
in turn, cause a sharp drop in lumber and plywood 
production. Softwood lumber production in the South in 
2030, for example, is reduced from 18.5 billion board feet 
to 12.5 billion. This has a dramatic impact on employment 
and wages and salaries in the lumber and wood products 
industry; by the year 2030, they are only 66 percent of the 
levels in the base projections. 
The stumpage price increases have relatively little effect 
on the pulp and paper industry. Roundwood pulpwood con- 
sumption for both softwoods and hardwoods is above the 
base figures as roundwood replaces byproducts lost with 
the reduction in lumber and plywood production. There are 
very small increases in employment and wages and 
salaries. 
There are opportunities to increase net annual timber 
growth by 2.1 billion cubic feet by planting pine on mar- 
ginal cropland and pasture, including highly erodible land. 
Because of the timing of the planting, not all of this can be 
realized in the projection period. However, the impacts are 
substantial. By 2030, softwood timber inventories are 38 bil- 
lion cubic feet, or 43 percent, above those in the base 
projections. Softwood lumber and plywood production in the 
South are also up; in the case of lumber, by 1.5 billion 
board feet, or 8 percent. Employment and wages and sala- 
ries would also be above the base but still show a big de- 
cline from present levels. 
