There are economic opportunities on private timberlands 
in the South to increase net annual timber growth by 2.9 
billion cubic feet. If attained, this would increase current 
softwood growth by 50 percent. Only a part of these oppor- 
tunities have been implicitly included in the base projections. 
Another part, those from intermediate stand treatments and 
those not involving changes in management type areas, 
have been excluded. In addition, because of the timing of 
implementing the opportunities, the full increase in timber 
growth could not be realized by the end of the projection 
period. Nonetheless, there are substantial impacts from this 
simulation on the resource and the economy. 
Softwood timber harvests, net annual growth, and inven- 
tories are all higher than the base projections—42.6 billion 
cubic feet for inventories in 2030. A good part of the eco- 
nomic opportunities included involve conversion of mixed 
pine—hardwood stands or hardwood stands to pine 
plantations. Because of this, hardwood inventories are re- 
duced below the base by 30 billion cubic feet by 2030. 
Employment and wages and salaries in the lumber and 
wood products and the pulp and paper products industries 
are somewhat above the base levels. However, employment 
in both industries still declines by about 15 percent from 
1984 through 2030. 
A simulation of the combined effects of planting pine on 
marginal cropland and pasture and implementing the eco- 
nomic opportunities on private timberlands shows large im- 
pacts on the timber resource, stumpage prices, and 
employment. By 2030, the softwood inventory is nearly 
doubled, and net annual growth is increased by a third over 
the base projections. Softwood stumpage prices are sharply 
reduced, and production of softwood lumber and plywood 
is increased. 
Implementing the economic opportunities to increase tim- 
ber supplies on timberland would involve the conversion of 
large areas of mixed pine—hardwoods and upland hardwoods 
to pine. As a result, net annual hardwood growth and 
inventories are substantially below the base. Hardwood 
stumpage prices are higher. This in turn causes a reduc- 
tion in hardwood lumber production and pulpwood 
consumption. 
Employment and wages and salaries in the forest indus- 
tries are both substantially above the base levels—by about 
36,000 people in the case of employment. However, 
employment in 2030 is still about 49,000, or 12 percent, 
below the 1984 level. Increasing labor productivity and the 
drop in the output of hardwood products override the in- 
creases in softwood harvests and product production. 
4. All of the alternative futures that were run indicate 
that the South and the Nation are faced with the prospect 
of continuing real increases in stumpage prices for most spe- 
cies and sizes of timber, and in the prices of most timber 
products. The increases are likely to be largest for softwood 
sawtimber; high-quality hardwood sawtimber of preferred 
species; and the products, mainly lumber and plywood, 
made from this sawtimber. There are also substantial price 
increases for softwood pulpwood stumpage. This is a signifi- 
cant change; pulpwood stumpage prices, measured in con- 
stant dollars, have been stable for over a hundred years. The 
largest increases in stumpage prices result from reduced tim- 
ber growth; the smallest increases, from the planting of pine 
on marginal cropland and pasture combined with implement- 
ing the economic opportunities on private timberlands. 
All of the futures analyzed also showed that the South 
is facing declining employment in the lumber and wood 
products and pulp and paper products industries. This is of 
great significance because of the potential effects on the in- 
dustries supplying goods and services to the forestry sector. 
As with prices, the largest drop in employment resulted from 
All of the analyses that have been made in 
this study show that the South and the 
Nation are facing a future of continuing real 
increases in stumpage prices for most 
species and sizes of timber and timber 
products. They also show the South is 
facing declining employment in the forest 
industries. But this outlook can be changed. 
There are large opportunities to increase 
timber supplies through planting and other 
management practices. 
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