Table 4.2—Simulated effects of selected futures on projected softwood roundwood supplies, net annual growth, and inventories of 
growing stock on private ownerships by section or region; softwood stumpage price indexes, softwood lumber and plywood production, and 
roundwood pulpwood consumption by section or region; and softwood lumber price indexes and imports in the United States, selected 
years 1984-2030—Continued 
(All projections at equilibrium levels) 
Increased 
management 
Natural Planted All intensity on 
High High Reduced regeneration pine Economic economic _ forest industry 
Improved exports imports Reduced Reduced national on marginal on marginal opportunities opportunities timberlands in 
Base processing of timber of timber timberland — timber forest cropland cropland on private on private Douglas-fir 
Item and year projection’ efficiency* products? products* area? growth® harvest’ and pasture® and pasture? timberlands!° lands! region! 
Softwood lumber 
prices leno o—Kwwewere————er Index of prices: 1967 = 10° — SS 
1984 116.3 116.3 116.3 116.3 116.3 116.3 116.3 116.3 116.3 116.3 116.3 116.3 
1990 134.1 131.5 136.1 134.0 134.2 140.4 136.4 134.0 134.1 135.0 135.0 135.3 
2000 152.6 142.7 152.1 152.7 153.7 161.2 158.0 152.0 152.3 153.5 152.7 151.7 
2010 162.6 148.2 161.7 160.1 163.3 176.0 169.2 160.9 161.0 161.9 156.1 161.3 
2020 176.1 154.1 1725 171.1 177.8 200.4 183.4 170.0 169.3 168.6 162.3 170.8 
2030 175.9 152.9 174.3 172.2 179.6 209.3 183.1 LDS 169.0 162.3 157.6 166.6 
Softwood lumber 
imports oo _ Million board feet, lumber tally 
1984 14,093 14,093 14,093 14,093 14,093 14,093 14,093 14,093 14,093 14,093 14,093 14,093 
1990 15,320 15,164 = 15,341 15,303 15,315 15,218 15,500 15,299 15,320 15,382 15,382 15,316 
2000 16,183 16,201 16,163 16,182 16,242 16,797 16,578 16,192 16,172 16,209 16,199 16,146 
2010 15,082 15,308 14,991 14,802 15,122 16,600 16,098 14,761 14,721 14,914 14,298 14,889 
2020 12,788 12,915 12,790 = 12,433 12,705 15,751 14,075 12,411 12,285 12,258 11,764 12,490 
2030 11,748 11,090 11,058 11,221 12,021 15,720 13,138 11,267 11,130 10,935 10,371 10,535 
' The future as described by the basic assumptions and other specified and implied assumptions underlying the projections in chapter 3. 
> The future as described by the basic assumptions and other specified and implied assumptions in chapter 3 modified by increasing softwood lumber and plywood 
yields by 25 percent instead of the 10-percent increase assumed in the 1979 Assessment and the Supplement. The increase in yields will be staged in the pro- 
gression 9, 7, 5, 3, and | percent per decade. 
3 The future as described by the basic assumptions and other specified and implied assumptions in chapter 3 modified by increasing the projected exports of 
lumber, plywood, and pulpwood (includes pulpwood and the pulpwood equivalent of pulp, paper, and board) by 20 percent in 1990, 40 percent in 2000, 60 per- 
cent in 2010, 80 percent in 2020, and 100 percent in 2030. 
* The future as described by the basic assumptions and other specified and implied assumptions in chapter 3 modified by increasing the projected imports of 
plywood, pulpwood (includes pulpwood and the pulpwood equivalent of pulp, paper, and board), and hardwood lumber and logs by 20 percent in 1990, 40 per- 
cent in 2000, 60 percent in 2010, 80 percent in 2020, and 100 percent in 2030. 
° The future as described by the basic assumptions and other specified and implied assumptions in chapter 3 modified by reducing the projected area in timberland 
in the South by 2 million acres in 1990, 5 million acres in 2000, and 11 million acres in 2030. 
°The future as described by the basic assumptions and other specified and implied assumptions in chapter 3 modified by reducing the net annual growth on pine 
plantations, natural pine, and mixed pine—hardwood stands shown in the empirical yield tables used in deveioping the base level projections by 25 percent. 
’? The future as described-by the basic assumptions and other specified and implied assumptions in chapter 3 modified by reducing timber harvests on the national 
forests to 8.1 billion board feet in 1990 and maintaining this level through 2030. 
® The future as described by the basic assumptions and other specified and implied assumptions in chapter 3 modified by assuming that all the marginal cropland 
and pasture in the South that would yield higher rates of return in pine plantations would naturally revert to timberland by 2000 (70 percent natural pine, 30 per- 
cent hardwoods in the Southeast; 40 percent natural pine, 60 percent hardwoods in the South Central). 
° The future as described by the basic assumptions and other specified and implied assumptions in chapter 3 modified by assuming that all the marginal cropland 
and pasture in the South would be planted in pine. i 
'0 The future as described by the basic assumptions and other specified and implied assumptions in chapter 3 modified by assuming that all the economic opportuni- 
ties, except those involving intermediate stand treatment and those not involving area change and management types, for increasing timber supplies on timberland in 
private ownerships that yield 4 percent or more net of inflation or deflation would be utilized. 
'l The future as described by the basic assumptions and other specified and implied assumptions in chapter 3 modified by assuming that all the economic oppor- 
tunities, except those involving intermediate stand treatment and those not involving area change and management types, for increasing timber supplies on timber- 
land in private ownerships that yield 4 percent or more net of inflation or deflation would be utilized, and all the marginal cropland and pasture would be planted 
in pine. 
'2 The future as described by the basic assumptions and other specified and implied assumptions in chapter 3 modified by assuming that all the economic opportu- 
nities to increase timber supplies on forest industry timberlands in the Douglas-fir region would be utilized. 
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