Table 4.4—Simulated effects of selected futures on projected hardwood roundwood supplies, net annual growth, and inventories of growing 
stock on private ownerships by section or region; hardwood stumpage prices indexes, hardwood lumber and roundwood pulpwood consumption 
by section or region; and hardwood lumber price indexes in the United States, selected years 1984—-2030—Continued 
(All projections at equilibrium levels) 
Increased 
management 
Natural Planted All intensity on 
High High Reduced regeneration pine Economic economic forest industry 
Improved exports imports Reduced Reduced national on marginal on marginal opportunities opportunities timberlands in 
Base processing of timber of timber timberland _ timber forest cropland cropland on private on private Douglas-fir 
Item and year projection’ efficiency? products* products* area? growth® harvest’ and pasture* and pasture? timberlands'° lands!! region!” 
Hardwood roundwood 
pulpwood 
consumption Pin eee Aa ee ee Milliomicubic feet = a ee 
South 
1984 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 
1990 1,044 1,088 982 1,044 1,062 1,043 1,044 1,051 1,051 
2000 1,336 1,437 1,189 1,347 1,433 1,328 1,334 1,344 1,342 
2010 1,622 1,824 1,305 1,633 1,775 O77 1,587 1,614 1,560 
2020 1,798 2,090 1,344 1,812 2,205 1,737 1,723 1,729 1,660 
2030 1,964 2,336 1,384 2,011 2,264 1,915 1,902 1,856 1,801 
North 
1984 588 588 588 588 588 588 588 588 588 
1990 737 762 699 737 737 737 737 737 737 
2000 984 1,042 888 983 983 984 984 983 983 
2010 1,272 1,383 1,084 1272 1,272 1,273 1,272 1,271 1,271 
2020 1,572 1,744 1,295 1,571 1,571 13573 16572 1,569 1,569 
2030 1,873 2,116 1,484 1,871 1,872 1,874 1,873 1,869 1,869 
Hardwood lumber 
prices Index of prices 1967 = 100 
1984 105.9 105.9 105.9 105.9 105.9 105.9 105.9 105.9 105.9 
1990 109.1 109:2, 109.1." 409.2) 109.3 109.0 109.1 109.3 109.3 
2000 116.6 1167) ellG4s (MGS 6:8 116.0 116.6 117.5 117.6 
2010 130.2 130161 129.9 | 13058 13056 128.8 130.6 132.9 133.2 
2020 145.4 146.2 1444 146.5 146.0 143.2 145.7 149.9 149.9 
2030 157.1 1584 1554 158280 1588 154.1 156.8 162.6 161.9 
' The future as described by the basic assumptions and other specified and implied assumptions underlying the projections in chapter 3. 
? The future as described by the basic assumptions and other specified and implied assumptions in chapter 3 modified by increasing softwood lumber and plywood 
yields by 25 percent instead of the 10-percent increase assumed in the 1979 Assessment and the Supplement. The increase in yields will be staged in the 
progression 9, 7, 5, 3, and 1 percent per decade. 
3 The future as described by the basic assumptions and other specified and implied assumptions in chapter 3 modified by increasing the projected exports of lumber, 
plywood, and pulpwood (includes pulpwood and the pulpwood equivalent of pulp, paper, and board) by 20 percent in 1990, 40 percent in 2000, 60 percent in 2010, 80 
percent in 2020, and 100 percent in 2030. 
4 The future as described by the basic assumptions and other specified and implied assumptions in chapter 3 modified by increasing the projected imports of plywood, 
pulpwood (includes pulpwood and the pulpwood equivalent of pulp, paper, and board), and hardwood lumber and logs by 20 percent in 1990, 40 percent in 2000, 
60 percent in 2010, 80 percent in 2020, and 100 percent in 2030. 
5 The future as described by the basic assumptions and other specified and implied assumptions in chapter 3 modified by reducing the projected area in timberland 
in the South by 2 million acres in 1990, 5 million acres in 2000, and 11 million acres in 2030. 
© The future as described by the basic assumptions and other specified and implied assumptions in chapter 3 modified by reducing the net annual growth on 
pine plantations, natural pine, and mixed pine-hardwood stands shown in the empirical yield tables used in developing the base level projections by 25 percent. 
