36 



THE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER IN THE UNITED STATES 



This chapter presents estimates of potential 

 supplies of timber products from U.S. forests 

 during the next half century under the assumption 

 that forest management efforts will continue at 

 approximately 1970 levels. 



An initial set of basic projections of timber 

 supply was first developed based on the further 

 assumptions (1) that timber harvesting would be 

 related to prospectively available growth of 

 timber, or in the case of public lands to allowable 

 harvests, and (2) that areas of commercial timber- 

 land will decline somewhat as a result of increasing 

 use of forest lands for nontimber purposes. 



A second set of projections is also included to 

 indicate supplies of softwood sawtimber con- 

 sidered likely to be available for harvesting with 

 different price levels. These economic supply 

 projections were based in part upon the base 

 projections of softwood sawtimber supplies that 

 might be physically available and judgments as 

 to timber operability, utilization potentials, and 

 owners' willingness to sell timber at various price 

 levels. It is recognized that higher prices for 

 timber products should also lead to increased 

 investments in timber growing but it is estimated 

 that this would have only limited effects on 

 available roundwood supplies during the projec- 

 tion period used in this study. 



The projections of timber supplies in this and 

 the following chapter should be regarded as 

 conditional statements of roundwood supplies 

 likely to be available in the future if the specified 

 assumptions as to level of management, timber 

 harvesting practices, area of available timberland, 

 and other factors are actually realized. It is of 

 course apparent that many alternative projections 

 could be made depending on assumptions as to 

 to these key variables. 



Also, as in the case of demand projections, 

 cyclical variations in availability of timber 

 supplies could be significant, and differences 

 between projections and actual supplies in the 

 future could become progressively greater as the 

 projection period lengthens. Factors such as 

 environmental limitations, and impacts of non- 

 timber uses on timber supplies, have been con- 

 sidered in this analysis but unforeseen changes 

 in these factors could also have additional impacts 

 on availability of timber for industrial use. 



In the last chapter of this report the timber 

 supply projections developed in this and the 

 following chapter are compared with the pro- 

 jections of timber demands developed in Chapter 

 V. This comparison is designed to provide an 

 indication of prospective relationships between 

 timber supplies and demands, related price 

 implications, and changes in forestry programs 

 that might be adopted to achieve various 

 forestry goals. 



Estimates of prospective timber supplies have 

 been developed for a 50-year period — a very 



long period in the light of the many uncertainties 

 associated with management and response of 

 forests and forest users to changing conditions — 

 but a short period in the life of most commerical 

 timber stands. 



1970 LEVEL OF FOREST MANAGEMENT 

 DEFINED 



The average amount of forest management 

 activities prevailing in the 1960's has been assumed 

 to represent the "1970 level of management." 

 In most respects the general intensity of timber 

 management in 1970, as indicated in this section, 

 was not greatty different from the average of 

 recent years. This management level is intended 

 to provide a base level for judging the future 

 outlook with and without intensification of 

 timber growing and utilization. 



Forest management includes a varietj^ of 

 activities — protection against fire, insects and 

 disease, reforestation, stand improvement, thin- 

 nings, and harvesting practices to assure desirable 

 regeneration. Related to these on-the-ground 

 measures are additional activities in forestry 

 research, technical assistance to landowners and 

 operators, and general educational activities. 



These management activities directly influence 

 future timber supplies through their effect on 

 such variables as rates of establishment of seedlings 

 and related additions to forest growing stock, 

 rates of diameter growth, tree mortality, and 

 the amount and distribution of timber removals 

 b}' diameter and tree classes. 



Estimates for these variables in each forest 

 region, and relationships to factors such as stand 

 density and composition, were obtained from 

 forest inventory plots taken mostty during the 

 1960's. Thus the variables used in developing 

 the projections of timber supplies shown later in 

 this chapter largely reflect the timber culture, 

 protection, and utilization levels and practices 

 of this period. 



Forest Fire Control 



The most widespread forestry practice in the 

 United States, and in many ways the most 

 important and effective historically, is organized 

 protection against wildfire. 



Expenditures. — Direct expenditures _ of Federal 

 and State forestry agencies, and private coop- 

 erators for organized programs of control of 

 wildfires approximated $200 million in 1970 

 (table 25 and fig. 17). In terms of constant 1967 

 dollars, direct expenditures for fire prevention 

 and control increased about 30 percent between 

 1960 and 1970. Expenditures per acre in 1970 

 averaged about 22 cents per acre protected. 

 Federal fire control organizations averaged about 

 16 cents per acre protected and State and private 

 fire control organizations about 32 cents per acre. 



