PROJECTED TIMBER SUPPLIES — 1970 LEVEL OF MANAGEMENT 



45 



This initial base projection of roundwood timber 

 supplies that might be biologically available over 

 the 1970-2020 period was developed with the 

 following assumptions: 



Eastern forests. — In the East, total removals of 

 both softwood and hardwood growing stock in 

 cubic feet, and sawtimber in board feet, were 

 assumed to rise from the 1970 trend level to a 

 balance with net growth in all sizes of timber by 

 the year 2000 and thereafter. The estimates of 

 growth — which in this initial assumption constrains 

 available removals and roundwood supplies — 

 assume continuing biological relationships between 

 variables such as radial growth and stand basal 

 area similar to those prevailing in the 1950's and 

 1960's as indicated by remeasured Forest Survey 

 plots. 



These assumptions do not mean that land- 

 owners would necessarily be willing and able to 

 sell all of this "available" supply of roundwood, 

 nor that plant capacity would actually be con- 

 structed to use all of this projected supply, but 

 rather that these volumes of removals would 

 be physically possible under the management, 

 area, and harvesting assumptions specified. It 

 is readily apparent that there are many possible 

 alternative trends in future removals determined 

 by such factors as owner objectives and timber 

 prices and market conditions, as indicated in 

 the final part of this chapter. 



Western public lands. — On public lands in the 

 West, it was assumed that the allowable cut of 

 timber as estimated in 1970 would be continued 

 through the projection period — even though 

 some reductions of allowable cuts might be re- 

 quired after the projection period, or even before, 

 unless management is intensified above 1970 

 levels. Extensive road construction by the public 

 and by timber operators will be required to 

 harvest the available timber on these public 

 lands, much of which was still in unroaded 

 areas in 1970. 



The rate of timber harvesting of National 

 Forests and other public lands could be modified 

 by changes in management policy, and/or by 

 intensified management as pointed out in Chapter 

 III, but for this analysis existing policies as of 

 1970 were accepted in evaluating the timber 

 supply outlook. 



The harvesting of timber on National Forests 

 and certain other public lands is influenced 

 significantly by requirements for multiple-use 

 management of forest areas. Such management 

 is designed not only to produce timber on a 

 sustained basis but also to maintain the quality 

 of waterflows, protect aesthetic values and 

 wildlife habitat, and accommodate rapidly grow- 

 ing numbers of recreational visitors. 



Harvesting timber in such a way as to achieve 

 such multiple-use goals can be expected to be of 

 increasing importance on public lands and extend 



to some degree to privately owned lands as well. 

 Such increases in emphasis on environmental 

 considerations reflect the growing values placed 

 on forest resources by an expanding population 

 with more available time, money, and mobility. 

 Although allowable harvests on public lands 

 have been set with allowances for nontimber 

 uses, it is possible that further adjustments in 

 timber management may be required. 



Timber harvesting has been especially chal- 

 lenged in the case of clearcutting, particularly on 

 public lands, because of aesthetic and environ- 

 mental impacts. From a timber growing stand- 

 point, on the other hand, clearcutting is considered 

 to be the most effective harvesting alternative in 

 many forest areas to avoid problems such as ex- 

 cessive blowdown of reserved trees and to obtain 

 satisfactory regeneration of desirable species. 

 Various studies have shown that even-aged silvi- 

 culture with some form of clearcutting favors 

 regeneration of the more desirable species such 

 as Douglas-fir in the Pacific Northwest, southern 

 pine, or Appalachian hardwoods such as yellow- 

 poplar, walnut, black cherry, and preferred oaks. 

 Such management also makes possible concen- 

 tration of logging activities and stand improve- 

 ment operations, with resulting savings in costs. 

 Complete removal of existing stands followed by 

 planting also permits reforestation with genetically 

 improved stock, and may be the only practical 

 way to convert hardwoods to more productive 

 softwood stands. 



In spite of such biological and economic con- 

 siderations, the need to balance environmental 

 and commodity uses may require additional modi- 

 fications of timber harvesting and regeneration 

 practices, particularly on National Forest and 

 other public lands. 4 Any substantial modifications 

 of harvesting or other management practices to 

 give greater emphasis to nontimber uses than 

 assumed in this study would likely require a re- 

 duction of the supply projections presented below. 

 Western private lands. — On private lands in the 

 West estimates were made of the prospective 

 removals of timber that could reasonably be ex- 

 pected with 1970 levels of management and oper- 

 ating practices. These estimated removals decline 

 rather sharply in the projection period to a rough 

 balance with growth and removals by the year 

 2020. 



Roundwood supplies. — The estimates of timber 

 supplies presented in this section are in terms of 

 roundwood products, including both products 

 from growing stock and from nongrowing stock 

 sources. Related information on logging residues 

 and other removals are also included to show total 

 removals from inventories, as well as net growth, 



4 See, for example: U.S. Department of Agriculture 

 Forest Service. National Forest management in a quality 

 environment — timber productivity. 66 p. 1971. 



