HIGHLIGHTS 



demand with relative prices of softwood lumber 

 and plywood in 1980 possibly 20 to 25 percent 

 above the 1970 level, and possibly 50 to 60 per- 

 cent higher in the year 2000. Related equilibrium 

 prices for paper and board by 2000 are estimated 

 to average roughly 15 to 20 percent above 1970. 



Stumpage prices associated with these increases 

 in prices of timber products, according to his- 

 torical relationships, by 2000 could be expected 

 to average more than double the level of prices 

 in 1970. 



Such prospective increases in prices for soft- 

 wood lumber would be consistent with an average 

 rise of 1.7 percent annually in lumber prices 

 relative to the general price level over the past 

 century. Relative prices of lumber leveled off 

 in the period 1950-67 — years marked by rapid 

 improvements in productivity in logging and 

 processing and by development of new sources 

 of timber in western National Forests and in 

 British Columbia. 



Relative prices of softwood plywood declined 

 dramatically during this recent period with 

 adoption of new technology and equipment. 

 Relative prices of pulp, paper, and board were 

 quite stable. Nevertheless, the timber supply 

 outlook with 1970 levels of management and 

 utilization indicates new supply problems and 

 shifts to higher price levels for all timber products. 



8. Supply and price problems appear most critical 

 for softwood lumber and plywood, but all forest 

 industries will be affected. 



Comparisons of projected timber demands 

 and supplies indicate that problems of timber 

 availability are likely to be most critical for 

 softwood sawtimber used for lumber and plywood 

 in housing, other construction, and various other 

 markets. 



The outlook for the pulp and paper industry is 

 better than for lumber and plywood, largely 

 because of the wide variety of species and qualities 

 of timber that can be used for pulpwood, However, 

 the tightening supply-demand situation for soft- 

 woods, and new developments such as installation 

 of chipping headrigs, are leading to increased 

 competition for available wood supplies and higher 

 wood costs for all industries. 



Producers of hardwood lumber and plywood who 

 depend on the higher qualities and sizes of pre- 

 ferred species, such as white oak, walnut, maple, 

 birch, and gum, also face serious supply prob- 

 lems and prospective increases in timber 

 prices. On the other hand, substantial supplies of 

 timber are prospectively available for industries 

 producing hardwood products such as pallets, 



construction timber, railroad ties, or hardwood 

 pulps. 



9. Demands for nontimber products and services and 

 for environmental protection are of growing 

 importance in the timber situation. 



Use of forest land for timber production is being 

 increasingly affected by public desires for recrea- 

 tion and other nontimber uses. Sizable areas of 

 public forest lands have been withdrawn from 

 timber use for wilderness and scenic areas, al- 

 though many of these are of relatively low site 

 productivity for timber. Extensive areas of both 

 private and public forest lands have been shifted 

 to nontimber uses such as reservoirs, highways, 

 airports, urban expansion, and recreational de- 

 velopments. Still other areas, particularly fertile 

 bottomlands capable of producing quality hard- 

 woods, have been cleared for crops and pasture. 



Until recently, reversion of abandoned agricul- 

 tural lands to forests more than offset such losses. 

 Between 1962 and 1970, however, areas classified 

 as commercial timberland declined about 8.5 

 million acres to a total of 500 million acres. Some 

 continuing net losses of commercial timberland, 

 averaging possibly 5 million acres per decade, have 

 been assumed in this analysis. 



Lands remaining in the commercial timberland 

 category also are increasingly called on to supply 

 nontimber goods and services as well as timber 

 harvests. These demands, as well as new concern 

 over protection of the natural environment, are 

 leading to numerous modifications in timber 

 harvesting and other forestry practices, particu- 

 larly on public lands. It seems clear that manage- 

 ment of forests for combinations of products and 

 uses, especially those in public ownership, will be 

 increasingly essential. 



Such constraints on land use and management 

 on public lands and to some extent on private 

 forests, together with unforeseen transfers of forest 

 lands to nontimber uses, could reduce timber 

 harvests below the projections developed in this 

 report. Impacts on timber prices and supplies of 

 wood products would be correspondingly in- 

 tensified. 



It is also possible that raw material shortages 

 could in time seriously constrain growth of the 

 Nation's economy or interfere with the achieve- 

 ment of social goals such as improvement of 

 housing. In such case forest recreation and other 

 nontimber uses could also suffer as a result of 

 efforts to alleviate materials shortages. Thus, 

 success in supplying nontimber values and products 

 may be influenced deeply by the effectiveness 

 with which industrial raw material needs can be 

 met. For such reasons, essentially all users of 

 forest land have an interest in the timber outlook. 



