THE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER IN THE UNITED STATES 



more then offset by an excess of removals over 

 net growth in the West. Removals of hardwood 

 sawtimber in 1970, on the other hand, were 24 

 percent less than net growth. 



4. Projected supplies of softwood sawtimber prod- 

 ucts potentially available from U.S. forests show 

 limited increases with 1970 levels of management. 



Potential supplies of softwood timber from the 

 Nation's forests- — assuming 1970 levels of manage- 

 ment, timber cutting practices and policies similar 

 to those in recent years and only minor reductions 

 in areas of commercial timberland — are estimated 

 to increase about 31 percent by 2000, from 8.8 

 billion cubic feet in 1970 to about 11.5 billion 

 cubic feet. This is a technical potential which 

 may not be fully realized, however, because of 

 factors of operability and owners' willingness 

 to sell timber. 



Thus in the case of softwood sawtimber — of 

 particular importance for lumber, plywood and 

 various other products — projections of economi- 

 cally available future supplies show limited changes 

 from the 1970 level of output. Assuming relative 

 prices of timber products remained at 1970 levels, 

 for example, estimates of economical^ available 

 supplies of softwood sawtimber are only slightly 

 above the actual harvest of about 46.9 billion 

 board feet in 1970. With increased prices of soft- 

 wood lumber and plywood averaging 50 percent 

 above 1970, projected supplies increase to over 53 

 billion board feet over the next decade., but then 

 decline below the 1970 level. 



5. Supplies of hardwood timber are increasing al- 

 though industrial use is limited by problems of 

 quality and availability. 



The outlook for hardwoods is somewhat mixed 

 in spite of the fact that removals of all sizes and 

 species of hardwood timber in 1970 was some 25 

 percent less than total net growth. 



Projections of available supplies of hardwood 

 sawtimber over the next few decades — assuming 

 1970 levels of forest management and specified cut- 

 ting rates — increase 66-percent, from an actual 

 harvest of 12.3 billion board feet in 1970 to over 

 20 billion board feet by 2000. This approximates 

 the projection of demand associated with 1970 

 prices. 



Projected supplies of hardwood products, in 

 cubic feet, uoder these same assumptions materi- 

 ally exceed potential demands at 1970 prices. 



While these projections imply little or no in- 

 crease in hardwood prices, there are practical 

 limitations on amounts of timber available for 

 sale and industrial use at any given time. To many 

 owners of hardwood timberland use of the forest 

 for recreation or other nontimber objectives is of 

 primary importance. Problems of quality also are 

 of special significance. Much of the growth and 

 available supply of hardwoods are in small tree 



sizes or species for which markets are Minuted ; 

 whereas the larger sizes of preferred species are in 

 short supply in most areas. Other factors that 

 could produce a tighter supply situation and higher 

 prices include possible substitution of hardwoods 

 for softwoods in production of woodpulp and cer- 

 tain other timber items. 



6. The outlook for timber supplies differs widely by 

 ownerships and by regions. 



Nationwide, private holdings account for the 

 major part of the commercial timberlands, includ- 

 ing 14 percent ir forest industry and 59 percent in 

 farm and miscellaneous private holdings. National 

 Forests include about 18 percent of the total com- 

 mercial timberlands and other public holdings 9 

 percent. 



Timber harvests in 1970 reflected this pattern 

 of ownership, with 48 percent of the 12.2 billion 

 cubic feet of total roundwood harvested from U.S. 

 forests coming from farm and miscellaneous pri- 

 vate holdings. Forests industry lands supplied 28 

 percent of the total, National Forests 17 percent, 

 and other public lands 7 percent. In the projections 

 of supply the major changes in these proportions 

 include a drop for forest industries and a corres- 

 ponding increase for farm and miscellaneous pri- 

 vate owners. 



Southern forests provided about 45 percent of 

 the Nation's timber harvests in 1970, compared 

 with 32 percent for the Pacific Coast, and 23 per- 

 cent for other sections of the United States. 



In the South progress in fire control and other 

 forestry activities has improved the timber situa- 

 tion to the point where it appears that with 1970 

 levels of management, softwood timber harvests 

 could be increased gradually en both National 

 Forests and other lands by roughly 50 percent 

 over the next few decades. 



On the Pacific Coast, on the other hand, a 

 marked decline in softwood sawtimber supplies 

 of about 18 percent is projected in the 1970-2000 

 period as a result of reduced availability of timber 

 from forest industry lands. 



Sustained harvests of timber from western 

 National Forests and other public lands at levels 

 close to 1970 estimates of allowable harvests 

 appear possible for some decades, although only 

 with timber prices significantly in excess of 1970 

 levels. Also, allowable harvests on National 

 Forests can be expected to drop shortly after 

 the projection period, if not before, unless forest 

 management and utilization of timber on these 

 lands is intensified. 



7. Substantial increases in softwood timber prices 

 appear necessary to balance potential timber de- 

 mands with available timber supplies. 



With forest management continuing at 1970 

 levels, projected supplies of softwood sawtimber 

 might balance the medium projection of timber 



