Highlight! 



This study relates primarily to the long-run 

 outlook for timber supplies and demands in the 

 United States under changing economic and 

 environmental conditions. Timber availability 

 will have a direct bearing on the economic develop- 

 ment of the Nation as well as availability of forest 

 lands for nontimber and environmental purposes. 



1. Demands for industrial timber products in the 

 United States have been increasing steadily, with 

 a 65-percent rise in use of these products during 

 the past three decades. 



Consumption of industrial wood products — such 

 as lumber, woodpulp, plywood, etc. — increased 

 65 percent between 1942 and 1972 to an annual 

 total of 125 million tons. In this period consump- 

 tion of industrial roundwood (that is, all round- 

 wood products except fuelwood) required to 

 produce these wood products increased about 56 

 percent to 13.7 billion cubic feet in 1972. The differ- 

 ence in these trends for roundwood and industrial 

 wood products consumption reflected more com- 

 plete use of the timber harvested, with a resulting 

 reduction of unused wood residues. 



In the 1942-72 period, lumber consumption 

 rose 27 percent. Use of round pulpwood climbed 

 157 percent, and consumption of veneer and ply- 

 wood over 438 percent. On the other hand, use of 

 fuelwood and minor products such as poles and 

 posts declined. 



2. Further substantial increases in future demands 

 for timber are expected. 



Projections of potential future demands for timber 

 vary widely with such factors as economic growth 

 and relative prices of timber products. A "medium" 

 projection of possible future demand was based on 

 the assumptions: (1) that the population of the 

 United States will increase nearly 40 percent 

 between 1970 and 2000 to 281 million people; (2) 

 that real gross national product will grow at an 

 average of 4.0 percent annually, or about 240 

 percent by 2000; and (3) that recent trends in 

 technology and institutional factors will continue. 



With prices of timber products relative to other 

 materials at 1970 levels, this medium projection of 

 U.S. demand for roundwood rises from a 1970 

 level of 12.7 billion cubic feet to nearly 23 billion 

 cubic feet by the year 2000. Potential demand for 

 softwoods rises from 9.7 billion cubic feet in 1970 



to 15.8 billion cubic feet by 2000. Demand for 

 hardwoods is projected to rise from 3.0 billion 

 cubic feet in 1970 to 7.0 billion cubic feet in 2000. 



With higher relative prices of timber products 

 in the future — which timber demand-supply com- 

 parisons indicate can be expected — projected 

 demands for roundwood are correspondingly lower. 

 Thus, with rising relative prices of 1.5 percent per 

 year above the 1970 trend level of lumber and 

 somewhat smaller price increases for plywood, 

 woodpulp, and other items, projected total timber 

 demand by the year 2000 approximates 19 billion 

 cubic feet. This latter projection includes increases 

 in demand of 5 percent for saw logs between 1970 

 and 2000, 58 percent for veneer logs, and 130 

 percent for round pulpwood. 



In terms of softwood sawtimber — of primary 

 importance for lumber and plywood used in 

 housing and many other markets — projected 

 demand at 1970 prices rises from 47.6 billion 

 board feet in 1970 to 73 billion board feet by 

 2000. With the specified rising prices, however, 

 projected demand reaches 55 billion board feet 

 in 2000 — a rise of 16 percent. 



Projected demand for hardwood sawtimber 

 with rising prices increases from 12.3 billion 

 board feet in 1970 to 19 billion board feet in 2000— 

 a rise of 55 percent. 



3. Timber growth in the United States has been 

 increasing as a result of recent forestry programs. 



The condition of timberlands in the United 

 States has improved materially in recent decades, 

 primarily because of expanding fire protection 

 and some increase in tree planting and other 

 forestry activities. As a result, net growth of both 

 softwoods and hardwoods increased about one- 

 third between 1952 and 1970 to a total of 10.7 

 billion cubic feet of softwoods and 7.9 billion 

 cubic feet of hardwoods. 



Roughly 60 percent of this total net growth 

 of softwoods in 1970, or about 40 billion board 

 feet, consisted of softwood sawtimber suitable 

 for lumber and plywood. Hardwood sawtimber 

 growth totaled 20 billion board feet in 1970. 



Removals of softwood sawtimber as a result 

 of timber harvesting and other factors exceeded 

 net growth in 1970 by 18 percent. In the East 

 removals were less than net growth but this was 



