PROJECTED TIMBER SUPPLIES — 1970 LEVEL OF MANAGEMENT 



87 



Table 77. — Inventory of growing stock per acre in the Pacific Coast Section, by owner class and species 



group, 1952, 1962, and 1970, with projections to 2020 



[Cubic feet] 



Owner class and species group 



1952 



1962 



1970 



Projections 





1980 



1990 



2000 



2020 



National Forests : 

 Softwoods -_ _ 



4,366 

 79 



4,348 

 82 



4,268 



85 



4, 105 

 94 



3,958 

 101 



3,836 

 107 



3,673 



Hardwoods. ____________ 



116 







Total 



4, 445 



4,430 



4,353 



4, 199 



4, 059 



3,943 



3,789 



Other public: 

 Softwoods 



3, 115 

 141 



3,328 

 206 



3,319 

 269 



3,356 

 379 



3,403 

 446 



3,458 



487 



3, 534 



Hardwoods __ _____ 



525 







Total 



3, 256 



3,534 



3,588 



3,735 



3,849 



3,945 



4, 059 







Forest industry : 

 Softwoods. 



4,278 

 199 



3,419 

 262 



2,953 

 316 



2,401 

 396 



2,271 

 447 



2,292 

 476 



2, 337 



Hardwoods _______ _ _ 



496 







Total ._- _ _- _ 



4,477 



3,681 



3,269 



2, 797 



2, 718 



2,768 



2,833 







Farm and miscellaneous private: 



Softwoods ___ __ __ _ ___ 



1,768 

 259 



1, 721 

 319 



1,850 

 383 



2,073 



488 



2, 213 

 557 



2,337 

 596 



2, 541 



Hardwoods __ _ _ 



633 







Total _ . . ._ ______ 



2, 027 



2,040 



2, 233 



2,561 



2,770 



2,933 



3, 174 







All owners: 



Softwoods. _ 



3, 533 

 151 



3,431 

 186 



3,352 

 219 



3,252 

 271 



3, 199 

 306 



3, 180 

 327 



3, 164 



Hardwoods. _ ._ _ 



348 







Total ..... .. _ . ... . 



3,684 



3,617 



3,571 



3,523 



3,505 



3,507 



3,512 







Forest industry, Farm and 



North Coast, miscellaneous, 

 California Eastern Oregon 



Tree diameter class 1970 2020 1970 2020 

 {inches) 



5 to 11 4 11 25 31 



11 to 20 19 41 38 60 



20 and larger 77 48 37 9 



Total 100 100 100 100 



ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS OF SUPPLY WITH 

 1970 LEVELS OF MANAGEMENT 



Supplies of timber products available in any 

 period depend not only on factors of timber inven- 

 tories, growth, and established harvesting prac- 

 tices and trends, but also upon various economic, 

 social, technical, and institutional factors that 

 were only partially considered in the base pro- 

 jections presented above. 8 



8 See for example: Morgan, James T. Three ways to 

 look at Lake States timber supplies. Proceedings of the 

 Society of American Foresters. Detroit, Michigan, p. 201- 

 203. 1965. 



Guttenberg, Sam. Converting forest resource statistics 

 to timber supply. Proceedings of the 7th Conf . on Southern 

 Industrial Forest Management. Duke Univ., Durham, 

 N.C. p. 46-51. 1967. 



Prices of timber and timber products in par- 

 ticular affect both the economic operability of 

 existing timber resources and owners' willingness 

 to sell. With rising prices of timber products and 

 stumpage, many timber owners and operators 

 could be expected to increase timber sales, har- 

 vests, and utilization, with resulting different 

 relationships to timber growth than assumed in 

 the base projections of timber supplies. Statistical 

 information on supply responses to price changes 

 is limited, however, and projections of econom- 

 ically available timber supplies therefore depend 

 to a major degree on judgment. 9 



9 See for example : 



Adams, D. M. The impact of changes on Federal timber 

 sales policies on the Douglas- fir region forest economy: 

 An econometric simulation. Ph.D. dissertation, Univ. of 

 California, Berkeley. 1972. 



McKillop, W. L. M. Supply and demand for forest 

 products — an econometric study. Hilgardia 38:1-132. 

 1967. 



Mills, Thomas J. An econometric analysis of market 

 factors determining supply and demand for softwood lum- 

 ber. Ph.D. dissertation, Michigan State University, East 

 Lansing. 182 p. 1972. 



Wall, Brian R. Relationship of log production in Oregon 

 and Washington to economic conditions. USDA FS Res. 

 Pap. PNW-147, 13 p. 1972. 



