PROJECTED TIMBER SUPPLIES — 19 70 LEVEL OF MANAGEMENT 



89 



Table 79. — Softwood sawtimber supplies at alternative price levels for lumber and plywood 



[Billion board feet] 



Item 



Actual 



1970 1971 1972 



Projections 



1980 1990 



2000 2020 



100 

 9.9 



12. 

 20. 6 



18.5 

 30. 5 



30. 5 

 0.5 



0. 6 

 15. 2 



Relative price index, softwood lumber and plywood 



West — National Forests ' 



At 1970 prices 



At 1970 prices plus 30 percent 



At 1970 prices plus 50 percent 



Base projection 



West — Other owners 



At 1970 prices 



At 1970 prices plus 30 percent : 



At 1970 prices plus 50 percent 



Base projection - 



West — All owners 



At 1970 prices 



At 1970 prices plus 30 percent 



At 1970 prices plus 50 percent 



Base projection 



East — National Forests 



At 1970 prices 



At 1970 prices plus 30 percent 



At 1970 prices plus 50 percent 



Base projection 



East — Other owners 



At 1970 prices * 



At 1970 prices plus 30 percent 



At 1970 prices plus 50 percent 



Base projection 



East — All owners 



At 1970 prices 



At 1970 prices plus 30 percent 



At 1970 prices plus 50 percent 



Base projection 



U.S. total — -National Forests 



At 1970 prices 



At 1970 prices plus 30 percent 



At 1970 prices plus 50 percent 



Base projection 



U.S. total — Other owners 



At 1970 prices 



At 1970 prices plus 30 percent 



At 1970 prices plus 50 percent 



Base projection 



U.S. total — All owners 



At 19 70 prices 



At 19 70 prices plus 30 percent 



At 1970 prices plus 50 percent 



Base projection I 46. 9 



118 

 10. 2 



15. 9 

 15.7 



21. 



31. 2 



0.5 



15.7 



16. 2 



16. 5 

 10. 2 



12. 5 

 36. 



34. 4 

 46. 2 



10. 7 



36.7 



47.4 



135 

 11.9 



21. 1 



33.0 



0.6 



17. 2 



17.8 



12. 5 



38. 3 



50. 8 



10.3 



11. 1 



12. 

 13.0 



17.5 

 19. 

 19.8 

 15.8 



27.8 

 30. 1 

 31.8 



28. 8 



0.8 

 1. 1 

 1. 2 

 1. 2 



18. 2 



19. 6 



20. 4 

 18.8 



19. 



20. 7 



21. 6 

 20. 



11. 1 



12. 2 



13. 2 



14. 2 



35. 7 

 38. 6 

 40. 2 

 34.6 



46. 8 

 50.8 

 53.4 



48.8 



10. 2 



11. 



12. 

 12. 8 



10. 

 10.9 

 11.8 

 12. 5 



15. 

 15.7 



16. 5 

 14. 2 



12. 5 

 12. 

 11. 

 14. 



25. 2 



26. 7 

 28. 5 

 27.0 



22. 5 

 22.9 

 22. 8 

 26. 6 



1. 4 

 1. 6 

 1.8 

 1.9 



2. 2 

 2.4 

 2.5 

 2. 7 



20. 8 



21. 7 



21. 9 



22. 



22. 2 



23. 3 

 23. 7 

 23. 9 



11. 6 



12. 6 



13. 8 



14. 7 



35.8 

 37.4 

 38. 4 

 36.2 



22. 3 



23. 3 

 23. 

 25. 



24. 5 



25. 7 

 25. 5 

 27. 6 



12. 2 

 13.3 

 14.3 

 15.2 



34. 8 



35. 3 

 34. 

 39.0 



47. 4 

 50. 

 52. 2 

 50.9 



47. 

 48.6 

 48.3 

 54. 2 



12. 1 



14.0 



26. 2 



2. 7 



25. 1 



27. 7 



14.8 



39. 1 



53.9 



1 Projections assume 1970 proportions of operator-financed and federally financed roads as well as other practices 

 at 1970 levels. 



relative prices of lumber and stumpage prior to 

 1950, for example, made it economically feasible 

 to develop the timber resources in previously un- 

 developed areas in National Forests in the West 

 and in British Columbia. This was also a period 

 when recovery of forests in the South permitted 

 increased timber harvesting, and when new tech- 

 nology broadened the raw material base and led to 

 more efficient and expanded production in the 

 plywood and lumber industries. 



As a result of these developments more supplies 

 of timber products became available at a given 



price level. This shift in supply-price relationships 

 for softwood sawtimber was equivalent to an ap- 

 parent long-run supply function of much greater 

 elasticity than for short periods. 



It is anticipated that timber supply-price rela- 

 tionships will continue to shift from decade _ to 

 decade in the future as a result of prospective 

 changes in timber resource conditions. Some antic- 

 ipated changes represent a reversal of past 

 trends, as in the Pacific Coast States where a 

 continued shrinkage of timber harvests on indus- 

 trial ownerships must be expected, particularly 



