90 



THE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER IN THE UNITED STATES 



with 1970 management levels and policies. In 

 other cases, as in the South, continuing increases 

 in timber supplies from an expanding resource are 

 anticipated. Supply prospects also differ by owner- 

 ships, as pointed out below. 



Projected Supplies From National Forests 



Estimates of. potential supplies of softwood 

 sawtimber from National Forests at alternative 

 price levels, shown in table 79, were based on esti- 

 mates of allowable harvests as established in 1970, 

 modified by judgment as to timber operability, 

 utilization potentials, and recent reevaluations of 

 allowable harvests in some areas resulting from 

 new environmental constraints. 



Allowable harvest limitations. — On National For- 

 ests and on certain other Federal and State owner- 

 ships sales of timber are limited to the allowable 

 harvests set by sustained yield policies and mul- 

 tiple-use standards and guidelines. Timber sales 

 and harvests on public lands also may be re- 

 stricted, at least temporarily as in the 1970-72 

 period, by such factors as environmental studies, 

 law suits to halt timber cutting, and availability 

 of funds and manpower. 



Except for temporary increases in harvesting of 

 timber already under contract, timber sales and 

 harvests on these public lands cannot be increased 

 significantly above allowable amounts, even with 

 much higher demands and prices. Nevertheless, 

 with increased prices timber on public lands can 

 be utilized more closely, resulting in an increase in 

 roundwood output and a corresponding reduction 

 of residues on logging areas. Much of the material 

 that could be made available in this way is suitable 

 only for products such as pulp or particleboard, 

 but some material can be utilized for lumber or 

 plywood. Also, increased sales and harvesting of 

 timber that may not be in the allowable harvest, 

 such as certain thinnings, timber in remote areas, 

 and increased salvage of dead timber, become 

 more feasible with higher prices. 



The amount of such possible increases in supplies 

 of roundwood with higher prices varies in different 

 areas, depending on such factors as amounts and 

 types of materials left after logging, accessibility 

 of areas logged, attitudes of loggers, equipment 

 available, methods of pricing low-valued timber, 

 and size and nature of available markets. 



Supplies from western National Forests. — At 1970 

 prices and 1970 level of management, projected 

 supplies of softwood sawtimber products from 

 western National Forests total about 10 billion 

 board feet annually — close to the actual harvest 

 in 1970 and 1971 (table 79 and fig. 41). With prices 

 50 percent higher than in 1970, harvests are 

 estimated to reach about 12 billion board feet 

 annually. 



These estimates of potential timber harvests 

 with higher prices largely reflect an anticipated 

 increase in utilization on logging operations, 



Softwood sawtimber supplies 

 ( 1970 level of management ) 

 total Western United States 



other ownership 



base projection 



national forests 



1 = 1970 price* 



2 = 1970 prices plus 30S 



3 = 1970 prices plus 5CrT e 





 1970 



1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 



Figure 41 



increased thinnings and salvage, and — in the 

 Rocky Mountains and Alaska — greater economic 

 accessibility of some timber that would be in- 

 operable at 1970 prices. 



Supplies from eastern National Forests. — 

 Harvests of softwood sawtimber from National 

 Forests in the eastern United States, at 1970 

 prices and level of management, were estimated to 

 increase from about 0.5 billion board feet in 

 1970-72 to 2.2 billion board feet by the year 2000 

 (fig. 42). This substantial rise in output reflects a 

 continuing buildup of timber inventories that is 

 expected on these lands and resulting rises in 

 allowable harvests. With higher prices somewhat 

 closer utilization also can be expected to lead to 

 some additional modest increases in log supplies. 



Total supplies from National Forests. — At 197 

 prices and level of management, these projections 

 for all National Forests in the United States sho w 



Softwood sawtimber supplies 

 ( 1970 level of management ) 

 total Eastern United States 



1 = 1970 price* 



2 = 1970 price, plus 30% 



3 = 1970 prices plus 50% 



notorial forests 



1990 2000 



Figure 42 



base projection 

 2010 2020 



