PROJECTED TIMBER SUPPLIES — 1970 LEVEL OF MANAGEMENT 



91 



little change from the average of 11.2 billion board 

 feet of softwood sawtimber actually cut in the 

 period 1970-72 (table 79 and fig. 43). With price 

 increases for lumber and plywood averaging 30 

 percent above 1970 levels, potential harvests of 

 softwood sawtimber in 1980, for example, were 

 estimated at 10 percent more than with 1970 

 price assumptions. With assumed price increases 

 of 50 percent over 1970, potential harvests in 1980 

 were projected to 19 percent above the actual cut 

 of 1970. 



These economic projections of available soft- 

 wood sawtimber supplies are lower than the base 

 projections presented earlier in this chapter, 

 which represented allowable harvests on National 

 Forest lands as established in 1970. These lower 

 estimates reflect in part new classifications of 

 commercial timberlands, new environmental con- 

 straints on timber management, and particularly 

 the fact that substantial inventories of National 

 Forest timber in the Rocky Mountains and 

 Alaska would not be economically operable 

 except with timber product and stumpage prices 

 substantially above 1970 levels. 



Projected Supplies From Other Lands 



Procedures for estimating prospectively avail- 

 able supplies of softwood sawtimber products 

 from other lands varied somewhat by region and 

 ownership. 



Supplies from western areas. — Potential harvests 

 of timber from public lands in the West were 

 estimated on the_ basis of reported allowable 

 harvests and possible increases in timber utili- 

 zation in much the same way as for National 

 Forests. 



Estimates for private lands in the West were 

 made on the basis of judgment as to (1) pro- 

 spective economic operability of timber inventories 

 at different price levels, and (2) consideration 



Softwood sawtimber supplies 

 ( 1970 level of management ) 

 total United States 



all ownerships 



q other ownerships 



3 20 



1 = 1970 pr 



2 = 1970 pr 



3 = 1970 pr 



base projection 



r plut 30% 

 * plus 50% 



base projection 



national forests 





 1970 



Figure 43 



of owners' willingness to sell their timber. These 

 judgments in turn were based on such factors as 

 past responses to price increases, studies of owner 

 attitudes toward selling timber, and possible 

 impacts of changing technology on timber oper- 

 ability and utilization. The base projections of 

 timber inventories and growth presented in the 

 previous part of this chapter and several related 

 projections using different cutting assumptions 

 also provided some guides for these estimates. 

 Timber harvesting responses to increased prices 

 appear to vary widely among different owners. 

 Some farm and miscellaneous private owners, 

 for example, willingly increase timber sales as 

 prices rise, whereas other private owners hold 

 forest land and timber primarily for nontimber 

 puposes, and have little or no interest in selling 

 timber even at relatively high prices. 



On industrial forest lands, cutting is often 

 related to plant capacity or related long-term 

 objectives that tend to limit increases in harvesting 

 in response to rising prices. The time required to 

 install new plant capacity or recruit additional 

 workers also has a short-run influence on the 

 rate at which supplies of lumber or other finished 

 products can be increased in response to higher 

 demands and prices. 



With prices and management at 1970 levels, it is 

 estimated that harvests of softwood sawtimber on 

 other ownerships in the West would decline 

 steadily from about 21 billion board feet of actual 

 harvests in 1970 to possibly 12.5 billion board 

 feet by 2000 — a drop of 40 percent (table 79 and 

 fig. 41). _ 



With higher prices than in 1970, it is estimated 

 that additional harvests of roundwood could be 

 obtained by closer utilization of timber felled or 

 formerly passed up in logging operations, by 

 increased salvage of dead or dying timber, and by 

 increased harvesting of other nongrowing stock. 

 Supplies could also be increased by accelerated sale 

 and harvesting of standing timber inventories. 



At these higher prices, estimates based mainly 

 on judgment show a more sustained trend in 

 harvesting over the next couple of decades, but a 

 sharp decline thereafter to lower levels than 

 expected with 1970 prices. Holding cutting at 

 higher levels during the 1970's and 1980's in 

 response to relatively high prices would thus 

 mean an accelerated reduction of supplies by 

 2000 and thereafter. 



Supplies from eastern areas. — Projections of 

 softwood sawtimber supplies from other owner- 

 ships in the East, with prices and management at 

 1970 levels, were based on the assumption that 

 these owners would continue to sell or cut about 

 the same percentage of standing timber inventories 

 as in 1970. (Timber harvests on other ownerships 

 in that year averaged 4.8 percent of softwood 

 sawtimber inventories in eastern forests, compared 

 to 3.5 percent in the West.) Because of the upward 



