100 



THE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER IN THE UNITED STATES 



and the "base" projection of harvests shown in 

 the first part of Chapter II, and (d) calculation 

 of rates of return on increased investments and 

 an economic ranking of investment opportunities. 

 In this study it was not possible to develop 

 specific measures of relationships between treat- 

 ments and nontimber uses and environmental 

 factors. As indicated earlier, silvicultural activities 

 influence the quality and quantity of water, 

 recreation, grazing, and wildlife habitat, but 

 whether these effects represent a net benefit or 

 a net cost in given situations has been difficult to 

 determine. 



Area Classification 



A classification of forest areas in each region was 

 first made to group areas of more or less homo- 

 geneous conditions, treatment options, and po- 

 tentials for management. This classification for 

 most regions was based on factors of type, site, 

 and stand-size class, such as indicated in tables 

 45-48 of Appendix I. In other areas stand age 

 was also used in this classification. In the case of 

 National Forests on the Pacific Coast, estimates 

 were based on "project work inventories." Acreage 

 figures developed in this way applied essentially 

 to conditions existing in 1970, and did not include 

 changes to be expected from future harvesting, 

 for example, or shifts in land uses. 



The second step was to classify each of the 

 "cells" indicated above in accordance with general 

 opportunities for intensified management, in- 

 cluding the following general categories : 



a. Areas on which economic opportunities for 

 intensification of management are apparently 

 limited because forests are already in good 

 shape for timber growing. Yields may be in- 

 increased in some cases, however, by com- 

 mercial thinning, fertilization, or drainage. 

 Where management objectives can be met 

 with short rotations such as 25 to 30 years, 

 as in certain plantations in the South, no 

 treatment may be feasible because volume 

 yields appear to be about the same with or 

 without thinning. In other cases with longer 

 rotations, as in the West, thinnings were con- 

 sidered appropriate to increase both volume 

 and value growth. 



b. Areas on which stands have passed the age 

 where they would benefit appreciably from 

 thinning or other cultural measures. It was 

 assumed that such stands should merely be 

 allowed to grow until ready for final harvests, 

 although in some cases there may be oppor- 

 tunities for investments in protection, salvage 

 of dying trees, or fertilization. 



c. Areas of poor site quality which will not re- 

 spond sufficiently to cultural treatment to 

 make investments worthwhile. 



d. Areas with existing stands that would yield 

 substantial increases in timber volumes 

 and/or values as a result of cultural practices 

 such as precommercial or commercial thin- 

 ning, or other measures such as fertilization 

 or drainage. 



e. Areas having little or no present or prospec- 

 tive timber values, but suitable for reforesta- 

 tion. These included areas of low stocking 

 and poor hardwood stands that might be 

 replaced with softwoods through stand con- 

 version. 



Selection of Areas for Analyses of Management Alter- 

 natives 



From stands listed in subparagraphs above, 

 estimates were made of acreages considered eco- 

 nomically suitable for intensification of manage- 

 ment. This selection, and estimation of acreages 

 available, depended on such criteria as stand con- 

 dition, accessibility, size of forest tracts, and 

 preliminary estimates of potential returns from 

 intensification. Estimates were also made of the 

 areas being treated under on-going programs in 

 deriving estimates of potential intensification. 



In the case of farm and miscellaneous private 

 lands an additional critical judgment was also 

 made as to the area of commercial timberland 

 held by owners considered likely to make invest- 

 ments in response to cost-sharing or other in- 

 centives. Without this assumption of technical 

 assistance, areas "available" for intensification 

 would undoubtedly be less than shown by the 

 following estimates. 



In this process 278 of the "most promising" 

 classes of land were selected for detailed analysis 

 of intensification potentials. These included some 

 4.5 million acres of National Forest lands, in 

 contrast to a reported backlog of about 17 million 

 acres considered silviculturally suitable for treat- 

 ment, plus 12.7 million acres of farm and miscel- 

 laneous private lands. 



Since these selections of areas to be studied 

 were based in part on judgment, some econom- 

 ically promising areas undoubtedly were not 

 included. On the other hand, some areas were 

 included that may yield less than the indicated 

 average rate of return for a given class of land. 

 Additional areas of farm and miscellaneous 

 private land beyond those included in this analysis 

 also might be managed more intensively if "per- 

 suasion" costs could be lowered by finding more 

 efficient ways of persuading owners to be re- 

 sponsive to management opportunities. 



