104 



THE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER IN THE UNITED STATES 



studied would return more than 5 percent on in- 

 creased management investments. 



Costs. — Additional costs required for intensifica- 

 tion on these 1.7 million acres were estimated at 

 $82 million — an average of $50 per acre. This in- 

 cluded $41 million of direct costs for on-the- 

 ground activities. Estimated costs for intensifica- 

 tion on 4.5 million acres total $356 million — an 

 average of $79 per acre. 



Harvest increases. — Increased harvest jdelds over 

 the next 50 years on the most promising 1.7 million 

 acres of National Forest land are estimated at 

 about 25 billion board feet of softwood sawtimber, 

 or an average increase of 0.5 billion board feet 

 per year. Projected yield increases total an esti- 

 mated 350 million board feet annually by the 

 fifteenth year and 780 million board feet by the 

 forty-fifth year. 



Increased harvests from the entire 4.5 million 

 acres of National Forest land included in this 

 analysis would amount to an estimated 68 billion 

 board feet over the next 5 decades or an average 

 of 1.4 billion board feet per year. These increased 

 yields would peak at about 1.8 billion board feet 

 annually in the fifth decade. 



It is possible that the allowable cut effect in- 

 volved in these estimates of increased timber 

 harvests may be overstated somewhat. One reason 

 relates to time lags in accomplishing accelerated 

 programs. Another relates to delays before effects 

 are allowed for in revised timber management 

 plans. Also, allowable cut effects in this example 

 were based upon reserves of merchantable timber 

 by geographic sections, rather than by specific 

 management units such as used in management 

 plans. If allowable cut effects are not considered, 

 and increases in harvests become available only 

 after timber from treated areas matures, the pro- 

 jected increased cuts resulting from intensification 

 of management would be deferred much further 

 into the future than shown in Appendix III, 

 table 2. 



Sensitivity to Price Assumptions 



The effect of using alternative assumptions as 

 to future relative prices of timber has also been 

 illustrated by assuming a 30-percent increase in 

 relative lumber and plywood prices over 1970-71 

 levels and related stumpage prices as shown in 

 tables 82 and 83. 



Farm and miscellaneous private lands. — At these 

 higher price levels, all 12.7 million acres of farm 

 and miscellaneous private lands studied in this 

 analysis would return more than 5 percent on 

 investments in intensified management — in con- 

 trast to 9 million acres at 1970 prices (Append. 

 Ill, table 3). By far the major part of these 

 investment opportunities were for reforestation, 

 with lesser areas meeting criteria for commercial 

 thinning and timber stand improvement. More 

 than 90 percent of the acreage of these estimated 



opportunities for intensification were located 

 in the South. 



Intensified management of the 12.7 million 

 acres studied would require an estimated $546 

 million, or about $43 per acre, and about $8, 

 excluding interest, per M board feet of increased 

 output over the next 50 years (1970-71 prices). 



Estimated increases in timber harvests from 

 12.7 million acres reach an estimated peak of 

 2.9 billion board feet in the fiftieth year, in 

 contrast to about 2.5 billion board feet from 9 

 million acres, and a total of 69 billion board feet 

 over the 50 year period. 



National Forest areas. — With the higher price 

 assumption, some 3.2 million acres of National 

 Forest land would return more than 5 percent 

 on increased reforestation and stand improve- 

 ment, compared with 1.7 million acres at 1970-71 

 prices (Append. Ill, table 4). Timber stand 

 improvement accounted for the major 

 part of the indicated investment opportunities 

 on National Forest lands, followed by reforesta- 

 tion of nonstocked lands in old cu to vers and burns. 

 Reforestation of newly harvested areas was 

 assumed to be provided for as part of 1970 levels 

 of management. 



Intensified management on 3.2 million acres 

 was estimated to cost $191 million— about $60 

 per acre. 



The 3.2 million acres of National Forest land 

 on which returns of more than 5 percent could 

 be expected at the higher prices would yield an 

 estimated additional harvest of 480 million board 

 feet annually in the first decade, and 1.3 billion 

 board feet per year by the fifth decade. These 

 estimates of yields assume significant allowable 

 cut effects on timing of harvests in western 

 regions. 



Inclusion of the entire 4.5 million acres analyzed 

 would produce increases in future harvests reach- 

 ing 1.8 billion board feet per year in the fifth 

 decade (Append. Ill, table 4). With the allowable 

 cut effect included in calculating rate of return, 

 most of this area would return more than 5 percent 

 on additional investments. 



Additional yields from commercial thinnings on 

 National Forests. — Opportunities for commercial 

 thinning on National Forest lands were not 

 evaluated in comparable detail_ in this initial 

 study of investment opportunities. However, 

 preliminary estimates based on judgments of 

 field personnel indicate that increased harvests 

 from commercial thinning and salvage operations 

 on National Forests might total about 1.1 billion 

 board feet annually (International K-inch rule) 

 by 1980, increasing to 2.3 billion board feet 

 annually by 2000. These largely represent "silvi- 

 cultural" operations that would be possible on 

 accessible areas of "standard" timber growing 

 lands, excluding eastern forests, Alaska, and 



