OPPORTUNITIES FOR INCREASING TIMBER SUPPLIES 



113 



upon the objective of growing the most high- 

 quality sawtimber the site could produce in the 

 shortest reasonable time. Given this objective 

 two broad treatment regimes were assigned to 23 

 of the 36 management classes, based upon the 

 acceptable tree stocking levels. 



Nine of these 23 management classes had in- 

 sufficient stocking levels to fully utilize their sites 

 for several years to come. The intensified manage- 

 ment regimes prescribed for these areas entailed 

 an immediate regeneration harvest, stand re- 

 establishment to oak-hickory, stand cleaning at 

 an early age, periodic thinning to promote rapid 

 sawtimber growth, and final harvest. About 24 

 percent of the 1.8 million acres analyzed in the 

 case study area, or 424 thousand acres, fell into 

 this stocking class and treatment regime. 



Fourteen management classes had excess stock- 

 ing. The intensified management regime specified 

 for these stands entailed an improvement cut to 

 get stocking down to a desirable level, followed 

 by periodic thinnings and final harvest. These 

 classes contained 46 percent of the 1.8 million 

 study acres, or 827 thousand acres. 



Thirteen management classes weie judged to 

 nave sufficient stocking of acceptable trees for 

 the next 10 years, and were not assigned an in- 

 tensified management regime. These covered 31 

 percent of the study group, or 551 thousand 

 acres. 



Projecting Stand Development 



Increased }delds from intensification of manage- 

 ment were estimated by simulating stand develop- 

 ment under both current and intensified manage- 

 ment, using growth models developed by Timber 

 Management Research. Projected growth and 

 harvests under intensified management were es- 

 timated by applying the prescriptions described 

 above. Projected harvests under current manage- 

 ment were estimated by applying 1970 removal 

 rates by diameter class to the inventory in Ohio 

 and holding this constant over the projection 

 period (table 92). These were average removal 

 rates and did not provide for specific treatment 

 schedules as in the intensified regimes, but are 

 believed to provide a good proxy for results of 

 current management. 



Average diameters were employed as measures 

 of stand maturity in the analysis of intensified 

 management. These varied according to site 

 class (potential cubic feet per acre per year) as 

 follows : 



Table 92. — Projected inventories, growth, and 

 removals with continuation oj 1970 management 

 and cutting practices in oak-hickory stands oj the 

 Northeast, and values at alternative price levels 



Average diamelfr at maturity 

 {inches) 



12 

 15 

 18 

 21 



Site class 



50-59 



60-69 



70-79 

 80 plus 



In the simulation of stand development residual 

 stands of trees were left after thinnings in both 

 management regimes. The current management 



Decade 



Inventory 

 at be- 

 ginning 



of decade 



Decadal 

 growth 



Decadal removals 





Volume 



Value 



1st 



2d 



3d 



4th 



5th 



6th 



Million cords 

 481. 



530. 6 

 629. 9 

 711. 2 

 829. 2 

 835. 5 



Million 

 cords 



159. 2 



208. 9 

 190.9 

 227. 6 

 115.9 



Million 

 cords 



109. 6 

 109. 6 

 109. 6 

 109. 6 

 109. 6 



Million 

 dollars 



^007 

 2 1856 



1 1007 



2 1856 



1 1007 



2 1856 



1 1007 



2 1856 



1 1007 



2 1856 



1 With 1970 prices and costs. 



2 With a 30% increase in prices of lumber and allocation 

 of 75% of the increase to stumpage, a $5 per cord increase 

 in prices of pulpwood stumpage, and 1970 management 



costs. 



regime left stands with more small diameter trees 

 than in the case of intensified management. 



Treatment costs. — Estimated costs of intensified 

 management included costs of removing non- 

 merchantable trees in regeneration cuts, improve- 

 ment cuts, and precommercial cleanings. Any cut 

 producing less than 5 cords per acre was assumed 

 to be unmerchantable. 



Costs for removing trees in stand conversions 

 and cost of improvement cuts were based upon an 

 equation using numbers and diameter of trees 

 removed, along with other input costs. Costs of 

 stand conversion ranged from $10-$20 and 

 averaged about $15 per acre. Costs of improve- 

 ment cutting ranged from $14-$28 and averaged 

 about $19 per acre. Costs of precommercial 

 cleanings averaged $21.50 per acre. 



Stumpage values. — Values of timber harvested 

 in future thinnings and final harvest cuts were 

 calculated by a conversion surplus procedure 

 similar to that employed on National Forests in 

 timber appraisals. The saw-log portions of growing 

 stock trees were valued by diameter class based 

 on the price of 4/4 lumber that could be produced, 

 minus all costs necessary to convert stumpage to 

 lumber. These timber values were adjusted to 

 account for variations in lumber quality and costs 

 resulting from differences in species mix, site 

 productivity, and management intensity. Timber 

 sale price differences have been demonstrated to be 

 associated with such stand characteristics. 7 



7 See, for example: Anderson, Walter C. Pine sawtimber 

 price behavior in South Carolina. TJSDA Forest Serv., 

 Res. Pap. SO-42, 12 p. 1969. 



