116 



THE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER IN THE UNITED STATES 



Table 95. — Net change in inventories, growth, and removals with intensified management of maple-beech 



stands in the Northeast (1970 prices) 1 



Decade 



Change in 



inventory at 

 beginning of decade 



Change in 

 decadal growth 



Change in decadal removals 



Increase in decadal 





Volume 



Value 



treatment cost 



1st... _. .. 



Million cords 



Million cords 



18.0 



22. 1 



25.0 

 25.7 

 13.6 



Million cords 



50.4 



-16.3 

 50.2 



-16.3 

 28.6 



Million dollars 



2 123 



3 231 

 -237 

 -421 



790 

 1,414 

 -237 

 -421 



969 

 1,724 



Million dollars 



74.8 



2d . 



-32. 4 



6.0 



-18.2 



22.8 



7.8 





3d 



46. 1 



4th ... . 





5th ... 





6th 















1 Includes 4 intensified management opportunities on 

 5.7 million acres. 



2 With 1970 prices and costs. 



3 With a 30 percent increase in the base price of lumber 



and allocation of 75 percent of the increase to stumpage, 

 a $5 per cord increase in prices of pulpwood stumpage, 

 and 1970 management costs. 



those resulting from management intensification 

 in oak-hickory stands. 



An estimated 5.7 million acres of maple-beech- 

 birch in the region were identified as economically 

 suitable for stand improvement treatments at an 

 average cost of $21.20 per acre (table 95). With 

 intensification, inventories at the beginning of the 

 sixth decade would be almost 8 million cords 

 greater than with current management, and values 

 of the residual inventory would be $1.7 billion 

 more than with current management. Growth 

 would be over 100 million cords greater with 

 intensified management than with current man- 

 agement. Estimated increases in removals with 

 intensified management total 96.6 million cords 

 over five decades, valued at $1.4 billion at 1970 

 prices. 



AN EXAMPLE OF POTENTIALS FOR INTENSI- 

 FIED FOREST MANAGEMENT IN THE NORTH 

 CENTRAL REGION 



Detailed per acre evaluation of intensified man- 

 agement opportunities were undertaken for three 

 pilot areas: northeastern Wisconsin, southern 

 Indiana and Illinois, and southern Missouri. These 

 areas contain forest situations believed t} 7 pical of 

 the predominantly hardwood forests of this region. 

 The case study areas collectively covered 11 

 million acres, or 12 percent of the total area of 96 

 million acres of commercial timberland in the 

 region. 



Estimates of opportunities for intensified forest 

 management presented below indicate that with a 

 5 percent rate of return criterion, and 1970 price 

 levels plus 30 percent, about 6.2 million acres in 

 the region would be economically suitable for 



intensified silvicultural treatment. Increased 

 harvests resulting from intensified management of 

 these acres would total about 13.9 billion board 

 feet of sawtimber, including 12.3 billion board 

 feet of softwood, plus 4.4 billion cubic feet of 

 pulpwood, over the next 50 years. 



Selection of Areas for Analysis of Treatments 



Inclusion of individual areas for detailed evalua- 

 tion of potentials for intensification was based 

 primarily upon current stocking, current species 

 dominance, suitability for planting alternative 

 species, site class, and size of area in the oppor- 

 tunity class. 



Based upon these screening factors, a number of 

 possible situations were excluded from analysis. 

 Thus options on low sites were not considered, 

 e.g., planting red pine on nonstocked forest land 

 on site classes less than 50. Commercial thinning of 

 pine plantations was excluded because of the 

 limited area involved. Similarly, maple-beech- 

 birch stands which already had desirable stocking 

 levels 8 were excluded from this evaluation. 



This screening process left for analysis areas 

 where management intensification appeared likety 

 to have major impacts upon timber supplies in 

 the pilot areas and return more than 5 percent on 

 treatment costs. These included: 



(1) Situations having relatively high site 

 productivity but poor or nonexistent stocking 

 and apparently suitable for reforestation with 

 softwoods such as red pine and white pine. These 

 included both areas of idle cropland indicated 



8 Arbogast, Carl, Jr. Marking guides for northern hard- 

 woods under the selection system. USDA Forest Serv., 

 Lake States Forest Exp. Sta., Sta. Pap. 56, 20 p., illus. 

 St. Paul, Minn. 1957. 



