OPPORTUNITIES FOR INCREASING TIMBER SUPPLIES 



117 



by the USDA Conservation Needs Inventory and 

 areas of nonstocked land in Wisconsin of site 

 class 50 and better. These softwood planting 

 situations all entailed a schedule of thinnings 

 prior to final harvest. 



(2) Situations in northern hardwood stands on 

 productive sites where stand characteristics in- 

 dicated favorable responses to cull tree removal 

 or improvement cutting, and a source of thinnings 

 in poletimber and sawtimber stands. These were 

 designed to adjust stocking to an "ideal" of 87 

 square feet per acre. 



(3) Site preparation for natural regeneration 

 of aspen in recently harvested stands. 



Yields, Prices, and Costs 



Yields of natural forests to be expected with 

 current management, as in other regions, were 

 assumed to be represented by Forest Survey 

 plot information. Yield estimates for more in- 

 tensively managed stands were derived from 

 Forest Survey plot information and published 

 yield tables, or in the case of hardwood treat- 

 ments from a growth simulator. 9 Documented 

 yield information for both current and intensified 

 management is scanty and had to be augmented 

 by generous applications of judgment. No esti- 

 mates were prepared regarding the net impact 

 upon non timber resources and uses. 



Stumpage prices were derived from reports of 

 recent timber sales adjusted to approximate 

 1970 price levels. Estimates of National Forest 

 stumpage prices were used for shortleaf pine. 



A second set of stumpage prices employed in 

 this analysis assumed timber product prices 

 30 percent above 1970 levels, with an estimated 

 75 percent of the increase in products prices 

 assumed to go to stumpage. This roughly doubled 

 most 1970 stumpage prices. 



Estimated treatment costs were based largely 

 on Forest Service contract experience 10 and special 

 local studies. 



The estimates of yields, costs, and stumpage 

 returns with current and intensified management 

 of the selected situations were then evaluated to 

 sort out those that promised to return more than 

 5 percent on increased investments, both at 1970 

 timber product prices and at 1970 prices plus 

 30 percent. 



It is recognized that the forest situations selected 

 for detailed study were not necessarily the only 

 management intensification opportunities which 

 would return 5 percent or more. Some may have 

 been omitted in the screening process. Also, the 

 input data used in this analysis are subject to 

 considerable uncertainty. 



9 Skog, K. E., and R. A. Leary. A computer simu- 

 lator of northern hardwood forest stand growth and 

 management. 



10 Row, Clark. Silvicultural service contract cost study; 

 FY 1970. USDA Forest Serv., Econ. and Mark. Res., 

 Washington, D.C., preliminary report. August 8, 1971. 



Regional Estimates of Management Opportunities at 

 1970 Prices 



Once the evaluations of opportunities in the 

 pilot areas were analyzed on a per-acre basis, 

 results were generalized to the North Central 

 Region on the basis of total estimated areas of 

 each type of situation. This area expansion, 

 although based on area stratifications such as 

 shown in table 45 of Appendix I, involved con- 

 siderable judgment. It was assumed that the yield, 

 price, and cost estimates used in the analysis for 

 pilot areas, and therefore present net worths at a 

 5-percent discount rate, would apply across the 

 entire region. These regionwide extrapolations also 

 assumed that all areas meeting the 5-percent 

 criterion would be available for intensification, 

 regardless of tract size or owner objectives. 



Plantations. — At 1970 prices and costs, about 

 160 thousand acres of softwood planting in the 

 next decade would yield 5-percent or more return 

 on planting and thinning investments (table 96). 

 Estimated costs of intensified management were 

 estimated at $7.3 million, or $45.60 per acre. 



The softwood sawtimber harvest increases 

 resulting from a 10-year program of accelerated 

 planting would be minimal until the 4th decade 

 when projected increases in available harvests 

 reach 53 million board feet annually. In the 8th 

 decade a single 10-year program would produce 

 estimated final harvest increases of 567 million 

 board feet annually. This would provide a harvest 

 double the 1970 level of softwood sawtimber 

 output of 539 million board feet from all owner- 

 ships in the North Central Region. 



Site preparation.— Investments in site prepara- 

 tion of aspen areas would return 5 percent on an 

 estimated 654 thousand acres in the region at a 

 cost of $3.4 million, or $5.20 per acre. The pulp- 

 wood harvest increase due to this treatment was 

 estimated at 130 million cubic feet per year in the 

 5th decade. 



Stand improvement. — Improvement of northern 

 hardwood stands would return 5 percent at 1970 

 prices on an estimated 701 thousand acres at a 

 cost of $9.1 million, or $13 per acre. The net effect 

 upon hardwood sawtimber output would be small 

 until the 6th decade when projected increases in 

 harvests average 344 million board feet annually. 

 This would be an increase of approximately 10 

 percent above the 1970 regional output of hard- 

 wood roundwood of 3.28 billion board feet. 



Regional Estimates of Opportunities at Higher Prices 



Under the assumption that future stumpage 

 prices would be about double the 1970 level, the 

 estimate of areas that could be treated with a 

 criterion of 5 percent return on investment rose 

 sharply from 1.5 million to 6.3 million acres (table 

 97). Four additional softwood planting situations 

 were added, including planting nonstocked forest 



