120 



THE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER IN THE UNITED STATES 



land and conversion of aspen-birch. Site prepara- 

 tion and stand improvement areas also were 

 expanded. 



Planting. — Softwood planting opportunities at 

 the higher price level were estimated to cover 

 nearly five times more area than with 1970 prices. 

 Projected harvest increases due to intensification 

 include over 1.0 billion board feet annually of soft- 

 wood sawtimber by the fifth decade, and 6.3 billion 

 board feet annuall}- during the eighth decade, plus 

 additional volumes of pulpwood size material. 



These estimated increases in softwood harvests 

 over the next eight decades are 11 times greater 

 with the higher price assumption than with 1970 

 prices. However, estimated costs of the larger pro- 

 gram with the higher price assumption are 30 times 

 greater than the program included with 1970 

 prices. 



Site preparation. — Aspen site preparation was 

 estimated to be feasible on almost three times 

 more area than with 1970 prices. Projected 

 harvest increases totaled about 300 million cubic 

 feet per year in the fifth decade. 



Marginal sites for such treatments as aspen site 

 preparation proved to *be sensitive to stumpage 

 price and treatment cost assumptions. Thus an 

 increase of a dollar a cord in aspen stumpage 

 prices had the effect of nearly doubling treatable 

 areas. On the other hand, a rise in treatment costs 

 from about $5 to $10 per acre would laigely 

 eliminate aspen site preparation at 1970 prices 

 and a 5-percent discount rate. 



Stand improvement. — Estimates of increased 

 harvests of hardwood sawtimber reach 525 million 

 board feet annually by the sixth decade, or 56 

 percent above increases estimated to be economi- 

 cally possible with 1970 price levels. 



Limitations of Current Study 



Additional research will be necessary to refine 

 these initial estimates of management opportuni- 

 ties and reduce uncertainties. Projected increases 

 in timber harvests due to treatment were estimated 

 from limited growth and yield data based upon 

 individual plot studies rather than large-scale 

 treatments. Although yields were reduced to allow 

 for this, the reduction factor used (generally about 

 20 percent) was necessarily based on judgment. 

 Prices and costs were available only from local 

 sources and may not be applicable to all areas 

 and ownerships in the region. Estimates of acres 

 suitable for treatment also must be regarded as 

 preliminar}^. 



In addition, rates of adoption of economically 

 feasible treatments by various owner classes are 

 unknown, and all the acres economical^ suitable 

 for treatment are not likely to be treated. In 

 addition to problems of financing forest^ improve- 



ments, treatments such as site preparation or 

 elimination of rough and rotten trees in northern 

 hardwood stands may conflict with other objec- 

 tives such as wildlife management. 



For this reason the estimates in this case study 

 show considerabty larger areas economically suit- 

 able for treatment than were included in the 

 national stud}^ described earlier; in that analysis 

 acreages were reduced for such factors as size and 

 location of tracts, availability of forest^ labor and 

 facilities, and willingness of owners to respond to 

 forestry assistance programs. 



AN EXAMPLE OF INTENSIFIED MANAGEMENT 

 POTENTIALS IN WASHINGTON, OREGON, 

 AND CALIFORNIA 



In this anatysis economic potentials for intensi- 

 fied management were analyzed for public owner- 

 ships other than National Forests, for forest 

 industry lands, and for other private lands in the 

 States of Washington, Oregon, and California. 

 These 3 classes of forest ownerships included some 

 35.1 million acres of commercial timberland in 

 1970, including 8.1 million acres in other public 

 ownerships, 12.2 million acres in forest industay 

 holdings, and 14.8 million acres in other private 

 holdings. 



Timber harvests on these lands in 1970 

 amounted to 16.6 billion board feet, or 65 percent 

 of the total sawtimber output on the Pacific 

 Coast. The "base" projections of future timber 

 harvests with 1970 levels of management, sum- 

 marized in Chapter II, indicate a drop in pros- 

 pective sawtimber harvests on these lands to 14.7 

 billion board feet by 1980, and to 11.8 billion 

 board feet by the year 2000. The estimates devel- 

 oped in this study indicate that with higher timber 

 prices substantial increases in these harvests 

 would be economically feasible. 



Area Classification 



Forest types considered in this analysis included : 

 (1) Douglas-fir, western hemlock, and Sitka spruce 

 in western Oregon and Washington and northwest 

 California, (2) ponderosa pine in eastern Oregon 

 and Washington and the interior of California, 

 and (3) lodgepole pine in eastern Washington, 

 Oregon, and California. It was not considered 

 possible to make a reasonable analysis of oppor- 

 tunities for management intensification in other 

 types because of absence of jdeld tables or limited 

 acreages of conditions suitable for management 

 intensification. 



Westside conifer stands were first stratified in 

 terms of site productivit}^ classes, stand age, 

 stocking, and numbers of trees per acre. 



In order for westside conifer stands to be con- 



