DEMAND FOR TIMBER PRODUCTS 



143 



This chapter presents information on recent 

 trends in consumption of timber products, to- 

 gether with projections of potential demands 

 to the year 2000. 



The projections of demand indicate the volumes 

 of timber products likely to be consumed under 

 specified or implied assumptions on population 

 and economic growth, technological and institu- 

 tional changes, and trends in prices of timber 

 products relative to the general price level and 

 to most competitive materials. 1 



BASIC ASSUMPTIONS 



In partial recognition of uncertainty, pro- 

 jections of timber demand have been prepared 

 using three alternative assumptions on population 

 and economic growth. The medium projections 

 of demand have also been presented under three 

 alternative price assumptions. Development of 

 these alternative projections was designed to 

 aid in the evaluation of timber demand-supply- 

 price relationships in the last chapter of this 

 report. 



Population Assumptions 



Changes in population have an important 

 effect on the demand for many products such as 

 houses, furniture, and paper, Population changes 

 also influence the size of the labor force, a major 

 determinant of the level of economic activity 

 and related materials usage. 



During the five decades 1920-70, the popu- 

 lation of the United States increased by nearly 

 100 million persons, rising at an average annual 

 rate of 1.3 percent (table 114, fig. 49; Append. V, 

 table 1). 



Recent projections of the Bureau of the Census 2 

 indicate that population is likely to continue to 

 grow fairly rapidly through the projection period. 

 The medium projection used in this study shows 

 population rising to 281 million in 2000 (table 

 114, fig. 49) — slightly above the median of the 

 series of projections published by the Bureau of 

 the Census in its 1972 report. The annual rate 



Population 1920 - 70, with projections to 2000 



1 For a more complete discussion of the nature and 

 meaning of longrun projections of demand for timber 

 products, problems involved in making projections, 

 principal determinants of demand, models for making 

 projections, and uses of projections, see Folia Forestalls 

 101. Forecasting in forestry and timber economy, prelimi- 

 nary report. IUFRO, Section 31, Working Group 4. 

 49 p. Metsantukimullaitos, Institutum Forestale Fenniae, 

 Helsinki, Finland. 1971. 



2 U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 

 Projections of the population of the United States, by 

 age and sex (interim revisions): 1970 to 2020. Cur. Pop. 

 Reps. Ser. P-25, No. 448, 50 p. 1970. 



Projections of the population of the United 



States, by age and sex: 1970 to 2020. Cur. Pop. Reps. 

 Ser. P-25, No. 470, 56 p. 1971. 



Projections of the population of the United 



States, by age and sex: 1972 to 2020. Cur. Pop. Reps. 

 Ser. P-25, No. 493, 26 p. 1972. 



Figure 49 



of population growth represented by this projec- 

 tion gradually declines from 1.1 percent in the 

 1970's to 1.0 percent in the 1990's. 



Projections of population shown in table 114 

 are substantially lower than similar Census pro- 

 jections made in 1964 3 and used in the preceding 

 appraisal of the timber situation made by the 

 Forest Service. 4 The medium projection in the 

 1964 Census report, for example, indicated a 

 population of 326 million in 2000. 



Fertility rates. — The revised population series 

 used in this study reflect significant reductions in 

 Census Bureau assumptions regarding future 

 fertility rates. There have been large fluctuations 

 in fertility rates in recent decades, as illustrate d 

 in figure 50, but since the late 1950's the tren d 



3 U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 

 Projections of the population of the United States, by age 

 and sex: 1964 to 1985 with extensions to 2010. Cur. Pop. 

 Reps. Ser. P-25, No. 286. 1964. 



4 U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. 

 Timber trends in the United States. Forest Resource 

 Rep. 17, 235 p. 1965. 



Total fertility rates 1920 - 68, 

 with projections to 2000 



