144 



THE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER IN THE UNITED STATES 



Table 114. — Measures of population and economic growth, selected years 1920-72, with projections to 2000 



Year 



Population 



Gross national 

 product ' 



Per capita gross 

 national product 



Disposable personal 

 income ' 



Per capita disposable 

 personal income 



Index of manufacturing 

 production 



1920 



Millions 

 106.5 

 115.8 

 123.2 

 127.4 

 132.6 



Annual 

 rate of 

 increase 



Billions 

 of 1967 

 dollars 

 160.5 

 201.8 

 215.8 

 199.3 

 267.1 



Annual 

 rate of 

 increase 



1967 

 dollars 

 1,507 

 1,743 

 1,752 

 1,564 

 2,014 



Annual 

 rate of 

 increase 



Billions 

 of 1967 

 dollars 



Annual 

 rate of 

 increase 



1967 

 dollars 



Annual 

 rate of 

 increase 



1967=100 

 16.2 

 19.8 

 18.7 

 18.0 

 25.4 



Annual 

 rate of 

 increase 



1925 



1.7 



1.2 

 .7 

 .8 



3.2 



1.4 



-1.6 



3.3 



3.6 



.1 



-2.3 



5.2 











4.1 



1930 



159.1 

 150.8 

 190.3 





1,391 

 1,184 

 1,435 





-1.1 



1935 



1940 



-1.1 



4.8 



-1.7 

 3.9 



-.8 

 7.1 



1945 



1950 



1955 



1960 



1965 



140.5 

 152.3 

 165.9 

 180.7 

 194.3 



1.2 

 1.6 

 1.7 

 1.7 

 1.5 



417.6 

 417.8 

 515.0 

 573.4 

 726.4 



3.5 



.1 



4.3 



2.2 



4.8 



2,972 

 2,743 

 3,104 

 3,173 

 3,739 



8.1 



-1.6 



2.5 



.4 



3.3 



262.8 

 285.6 

 339.4 

 389.2 

 497.7 



6.7 

 1.7 

 3.5 

 2.8 

 5.0 



1,870 

 1,875 

 2,046 

 2,154 

 2,562 



5.4 

 .1 

 1.8 

 1.0 

 3.5 



42.6 

 45.0 

 58.2 

 65.4 

 89.1 



10.9 

 1.1 

 5.3 



2.4 

 6.4 



1966 



1967 



1968 



1969 



1970 



196.6 

 198.7 

 200.7 

 202.7 

 204.9 



1.2 

 1.1 

 1.0 

 1.0 

 1.1 



773.8 

 793.9 

 830.8 

 853.2 

 849.0 



6.5 

 2.6 

 4.7 

 2.7 

 -.5 



3,936 

 3,995 

 4,140 

 4,209 

 4,143 



5.3 

 1.5 

 3.6 

 1.7 

 -1.5 



525.0 

 546.3 

 570.8 

 587.6 

 610.0 



5.5 

 4.0 

 4.5 

 2.9 

 3.8 



2,670 



2,749 

 2,844 

 2,899 

 2,977 



4.3 

 3.0 

 3.4 



1.9 



2.7 



98.3 

 100.0 

 105.7 

 110.5 

 106.6 



10.3 

 1.7 

 5.7 

 4.5 



-3.7 



1971 



1972 



207.0 

 208.8 



1.1 

 .9 



872.1 

 928.3 



2.7 

 6.4 



4,213 

 4,446 



1.6 

 5.5 



634.6 

 662.0 



4.0 

 4.3 



3,066 

 3,170 



2.9 

 3.4 



106.8 

 114.4 



.2 

 7.1 















Low projections 















1980 



226 



1.0 



1,240 



3.6 



6,500 



2.6 





850 



3.5 



3,740 



2.5 



150 



3.6 



1990 



248 



.9 



1,750 



3.5 



7,080 



2.5 





1,190 



3.5 



4,810 



2.6 



210 



3.4 



2000 



266 



.7 



•2,480 



3.5 



9,310 



2.8 





1,680 



3.5 



6,330 



2.8 



290 



3.3 



Medium projections 



1980 

 1990 

 2000 



228 



1.1 



255 



1.1 



281 



1.0 



1,310 

 1,930 

 2,860 



4.0 

 4.0 

 4.0 



5,730 

 7,580 

 10, 180 



2.9 



2.8 

 3.0 



890 

 1,310 

 1,950 



4.0 

 4.0 

 4.0 



3,890 

 5,160 

 6,930 



2.9 

 2.8 

 3.0 



160 

 230 

 340 



4.1 

 4.0 

 3.9 















High projections 













1980 



1990 



2000 



232 

 266 

 301 



1.3 

 1.4 

 1.2 



1,370 

 2,130 

 3,300 



4.5 

 4.5 

 4.5 



6,910 

 8,000 

 10, 970 



3.2 

 3.1 

 3.2 



930 

 1,460 

 2,260 



4.6 

 4.5 



4.5 



4,020 

 6,440 

 7,470 



3.2 

 3.1 

 3.2 



170 

 260 

 410 



4.7 

 4.6 

 4.5 



' The 1970 trend level for the gross national product ($882 billion) and dis- 

 posable personal income ($600 billion) were used as the base for calculating the 

 projected values. 



NOTE: Annual rates of increase are calculated for 5-year periods from 1920 

 through 1965, for 1-year periods 1965 through 1972, and for 10-year periods 

 1970 through 2000. 



Sources: Population, U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the 

 Census. 1920-45 — Population estimates and projections. Cur. Pop. Reps. Ser. 

 P-25, No. 442. 1970; 1950-70— Estimates of the population of the United States to 

 December 1 1971. Cur. Pop. Reps. Ser. P-25, No. 474. 1972; 1971-72— Estimates 

 of the population of the United States to January 1, 1973. Cur. Pop. Reps. Ser. 

 P-25, No. 496. 1973; 1980-2000— Projections of the population of the United 

 States, by age and sex (interim revisions): 1970 to 2020. Cur. Pop. Reps. Ser. 

 P-25, No. 448. 1970. 



has fallen sharply. 5 The prevailing fertility rate 

 in the period 1968-70 would result in a popula- 

 tion close to the medium projection used in this 

 study. The much lower fertility rates of 1971 and 

 1972, would result in a population less than the 

 low projection shown in figure 49. 



Immigration. — The allowance for immigration, 

 in the Census Bureau projections of future popu- 

 lation growth averages 400,000 net immigrants 



5 These fertility rates indicate the number of births per 

 1000 women during their child bearing years. For a more 

 detailed technical definition, see U.S. Department of 

 Health, Education, and Welfare; Public Health Service. 

 Natality Statistics Analysis United States, 1965-67. 

 National Center for Health Statistics, Ser. 21, No. 19, 

 38 p. 1970. 



Gross national product and per capita gross national product derived from 

 data published in the following sources: 1920-25— U.S. Congress, Joint Com- 

 mittee on the Economic Report. Potential economic growth of the United 

 States during the next decade. 83rd Cong., 2d sess. 1954; 1930-67 and 1968-71— 

 U.S. Department of Commerce, Social and Economic Statistics, Bureau of 

 Economic Analysis. Survey of current business. 52(7). July 1972; 1930-72— 

 Council of Economic Advisers. Economic report of the President. January 1973 . 



Disposable personal income and per capita disposable personal income 

 derived from data published in the following source: 1930-72— Council of 

 Economic Advisers. Economic report of the President. January 1973. 



Index of manufacturing production derived from data published in the 

 following sources: 1920-25— Federal Reserve System. Industrial production 

 1967-1969 base. 1962; 1930-70— Council of Economic Advisers. Economic report 

 of the President. January 1972; 1971-72— U.S Department of Commerce, 

 Social and Economic Statistics. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Survey of 

 current business. 53(3). March 1973. 



per year between 1970 and 2000 — a significant 

 part of the total population growth in the medium 

 projection. Reductions in immigration, and thus 

 in projected population growth, could result 

 from mounting national concern about popula- 

 tion size and environmental impacts. 



Gross National Product Assumptions 



Changes in the consumption of many timber 

 products, as well as other industrial materials, 

 have been closely associated in recent decades 

 with changes in the Nation's gross national 

 product, i.e., the value of all goods and services 

 produced. In developing a number of the timber 

 product projections shown in this chapter, pro- 



