DEMAND FOR TIMBER PRODUCTS 



153 



Table 117. — Average annual demand for housing, by source of demand, 1920-70, with projections to 2000 



[Thousand units] 





Total 

 demand 



Household 

 formations 



Vacancies — 



conventional 



units 



Net replacements 



Mobiles not 



Period 



Total 



Conven- 

 tional 



units 



Mobiles used 

 as primary 

 residences 



used as 



primary 



residences 



1920-29 



803.4 



365. 1 



809. 



1,522. 4 



1,648.7 



556. 6 



496. 2 



800. 5 



1,005. 2 



1,039.3 



239.0 



-22. 9 



80. 7 



227. 6 

 -23.0 



7.8 



-108. 2 



-72. 2 



267.4 



591. 3 









1930-39 









1940-49 









1950-59.- . 







22. 2 



1960-69 . 







41. 1 











Low projections 



1970-79 



1980-89 



1990-99 



2,400. 

 2,450. 

 2,290.0 



1,330.0 



1,210. 



920.0 



170.0 

 180.0 

 160.0 



800.0 



960. 



1,120.0 



650. 

 720. 

 8<jO. 



150. 

 240. 

 290.0 



100.0 



100.0 



90.0 



Medium projections 



1970-79 



1980-89 



1990-99 



2,500. 

 2,620. 

 2,560. 



1,370.0 

 1,280. 

 1,030.0 



200. 

 220. 

 220. 



820. 

 1,020.0 

 1,210. 



660.0 

 770. 

 920.0 



160.0 

 250.0 

 290.0 



110.0 

 100.0 

 100.0 



High projections 



1970-79 



1980-89 



1990-99 



2,580. 

 2,780. 

 2,930.0 



1,410. 

 1,320. 

 1 , 230. 



220. 

 260.0 

 280.0 



840. 

 1,090. 

 1,310. 



680.0 

 830. 

 990. 



160. 

 260. 

 320. 



110.0 

 110.0 

 110.0 



Sources: Household formations: U.S. Department of 

 Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 1920-60 — United 

 Stttes census of housing, 1960. HC(1)-1. 1963; 1970— 

 1970 Census of housing. Ser. HC(VI)-1. 1971. 



Vacancies, conventional units — Forest Service estimates 

 derived from data in the following sources: U.S. Depart- 

 ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Historical sta- 

 tistics of the United States, colonial times to 1957. 1960; 

 1970— Census of housing. Ser. HC(VI)-1. 1971. 



Replacements — Forest Service estimates derived from 

 data in the following sources: U.S. Department of Com- 



reflected such factors as shifts of population 

 from farms and small towns to urban areas, 

 which in turn required replacement of large 

 numbers of abandoned dwellings. Urban renewal 

 and highway construction programs have led 

 to removal of many housing units. Dwellings have 

 been lost through fire, flood, and other disasters. 

 Some dwellings have been converted to other 

 uses. Rising levels of income and public housing 

 programs have also made possible an upgrading 

 of the housing stock by replacing dilapidated units 

 earlier than would have been possible otherwise. 

 In view of the growing numbers of older units 

 in the Nation's housing stock, projected in- 

 creases in per capita income, and a rising propor- 

 tion of mobile homes with relatively short average 



merce, Bureau of the Census. Historical statistics of the 

 United States, colonial times to 1957. 1960; United States 

 census of housing, I960. Vol. IV, Pt. 1-A. 1962. 



Mobiles not used as primary residences — Forest Service 

 estimates derived from data in U.S. Department of Com- 

 merce, Bureau of the Census. United States census of hous- 

 ing, 1960. Vol. IV, Pt. 1-A. 1962. 



Projections: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

 Service. 



life, it has been assumed that replacements will 

 continue to rise during the projection period. 



With the assumed replacement rates, demand 

 for replacement units becomes the major item of 

 projected housing production by the last decade 

 of the century (table 117, fig. 61). By the 1990's 

 projected net replacements average about 1.2 

 million units a year — almost twice the average of 

 the 1960's, and about half of the projected total 

 demand for housing in that decade. 



About a quarter of the projected replacement 

 demand in the next three decades is for mobile 

 homes. This reflects in large part the compara- 

 tively short life of mobile homes. Little reliable 

 data are available on this matter and estimates of 

 probable life vary widely. In this analysis an 



