154 



THE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER IN THE UNITED STATES 



Demand for new housing by source of demand 

 1920-72 with projections (medium level) to 2000 



Z 1,500 

 < 



o 



x 



1,000 



















<Q 





vacancies 



vacancies plus ! 

 net replacements i 



/ I net replacements 



household 

 formations 



1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 



Figure 61 



average life of about 12 years for mobile homes 

 was assumed for the decade of the 1970's, in- 

 creasing to about 20 years by 2000. This upward 

 trend in average life in effect assumes a general 

 upgrading in the quality of the units built. 



Vacancies 



The third major component of housing demand 

 is vacancies. For the purposes of this report, 

 vacancies have been divided into (1) units for 

 sale or rent, (2) second homes and other units not 

 for sale or rent, and (3) dilapidated units. 



The first category includes units intended for 

 year-round occupancy and on the market for sale 

 or rent, and units sold or rented and awaiting 

 occupancy. Vacancy rates for this category have 

 shown a wide range (table 119). Because the 3.5 

 percent rate of 1970 was apparently below normal, 

 an increase to 4.1 percent — about the average of 

 the_ late 1960's — was assumed for the projection 

 period. 



The second category of vacancies includes units 

 intended for seasonal occupancy, plus units held 

 for occasional use, units temporarily occupied by 

 persons who have a usual place of residence 

 elsewhere, and units held for personal reasons of 

 the owner. In recent years, such vacancies have 

 composed between 3.5 and 5.8 percent of the 

 housing inventory. 



With the increased income, leisure time, and 

 mobility that has been assumed, it was estimated 

 that demand for seasonal units would rise, so 

 that this vacancy rate would increase from 3.5 

 percent in 1970 to about 4.6 percent by 1980 

 (medium projection), with a subsequent rise to 

 about 6.3 percent in 2000 (table 119). Demand for 

 seasonal units is closel} T related to per capita 

 disposable personal income and to numbers of 



Table 118. — Housing unit replacements, 1920-70, 

 with projections to 2000 





Housing 



unit 

 inven- 

 tory l 



Replacements 



2 



Period 



Gross 1 



Net 





Number 1 



Rate 







1920-29 



1930-39 



1940-49 



1950-59 



1960-69 



Thousands 

 28, 614 

 34, 958 

 41, 731 

 52, 302 

 63, 550 



Thousands 

 115.0 

 105.0 

 210.0 

 453. 1 

 691.3 



Thousands 



7.8 



-108. 2 



-72. 2 



267.4 



591. 3 



Percent 

 ( 3 ) 

 ( 3 ) 

 ( 3 ) 



0.51 

 .93 





Low projections 







1970-79 



1980-89 



1990-99 



75, 800 



90, 200 



102, 600 



900.0 

 1, 060. 

 1, 120. 



800. 



960.0 



1, 120. 



1.06 

 1.07 

 1.09 



Medium projections 



1970-79 



1980-89 



1990-99 



76, 200 



91, 500 



105, 200 



920.0 

 1, 120. 

 1, 310. 



820.0 

 1, 020. 

 1, 210. 



1.08 

 1. 11 

 1. 15 



High projections 



1970-79 



76, 400 





940.0 





840.0 



1. 



10 



1980-89 



92, 500 



1, 



190.0 



1 



090.0 



1. 



18 



1990-99 



107, 900 



1, 



410. 



1, 



310.0 



1. 



21 



1 Average annual number for the period. 



2 Gross replacement is the total number of units lost 

 from the housing inventory. Net replacement is gross 

 replacement less the number of units added by means 

 other than new housing unit construction (that is, con- 

 version of one unit to two or more units, conversion of 

 nonresidential space to housing units, etc.). 



3 Less than 0.05 percent. 



Sources: Housing unit inventory, 1920-30 — Forest 

 Service estimated average for the decade derived by adding 

 estimated vacancies (table 119) to reported number of 

 households (table 115). 



Replacements, 1920-49 — Forest Service estimates de- 

 rived from demolition data published by U.S. Department 

 of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Historical statistics of 

 the United States, colonial times to 1957. 1960; 1950-59 — 

 United States census of housing, 1960. Vol. IV, Pt. 1-A 

 1962; 1960-69 — Forest Service estimates derived from 

 housing start vacancy change and housing inventory data. 



Projections: 

 Service. 



U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 



people in the middle to older age classes. Hence, 

 there are significant differences between pro- 

 jected high and low rates of second home de- 

 mand, especially toward the end of the centur} r . 

 Projected total vacancy rates rise from the 

 1970 level of 7.6 percent to 10.4 percent in 2000 



