160 



THE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER IN THE' UNITED STATES 



Table 122. — Timber products consumed in new 

 housing, 1962 and 1970, with projections of 

 demand (1970 relative prices) to 2000 l 



Year 



Lumber 



Plywood 

 (%-inch basis) 



Building 



board 2 



02-inch basis) 



1962 



1970 



MUlion board feet 

 13, 940 

 12, 270 



Million square feet 

 4, 180 

 6,330 



Million square feet 

 1,660 

 2,070 



Low projections 



1980— 

 1990—. 

 2000—- 



16, 160 



17, 310 

 16, 000 



9,560 

 10, 900 

 10, 680 



3, 170 

 3,800 

 3,980 



Medium projections 



1980 T __. 



1990 



2000— 



17, 180 



18, 650 

 17, 950 



10, 150 



11, 750 

 11, 990 



3,360 

 4,080 

 4,440 



High projections 



1980—. 



1990 



2000 



18, 240 

 20, 000 

 20, 770 



10, 770 



12, 600 



13, 910 



3,550 

 4,370 

 5, 130 



1 Includes both hardwoods and softwoods. Includes 

 allowance for on-site and manufacturing waste. 



2 Hardboard, insulation board, and particleboard. 



in new housing would be significantly lower than 

 the estimates shown in table 122. The summary 

 section of this chapter includes estimates of the 

 effect of alternative price assumptions on total 

 demand for lumber, plywood, and building board 

 in all uses. 



DEMAND FOR TIMBER PRODUCTS IN RESI- 

 DENTIAL UPKEEP AND IMPROVEMENTS 



In addition to the timber products used in 

 construction of new residential units, substantial 

 volumes are used annually for the upkeep and 

 improvement of units in the existing housing 

 inventory. 



Expenditures for Residential Upkeep and Improve- 

 ments 



In the period 1960-72, the years for which the 

 most reliable data are available, expenditures 

 for upkeep and improvements generally fluctuated 

 between $12 and $13 billion annually (1967 

 dollars). For the purposes of this study it was 

 assumed that in the projection period expenditures 

 would grow at about the same rate as the housing 

 inventory. Under this assumption, projected 



Table 123. — Expenditures and timber products 

 use per thousand dollars of expenditure, resi- 

 dential upkeep and improvements, 1970, with 

 projections (1970 relative prices) to 2000 





Total 

 expenditures 



Use per thousand 

 dollars of expenditures 



Year 



Lumber 



Plywood 

 (%-inch 

 basis) 



Building 

 board ' 

 OS-inch 

 basis) 



1970--. 



Millions of 

 1967 dollars 

 12, 067 



Board feet 

 390 



Square feet 

 210 



Square feet 

 90 



Low projections 



1980.-. 



14, 300 



350 



215 



95 



1990.-- 



16, 740 



.330 



220 



105 



2000-.- 



18, 640 



320 



225 



110 



Medium projections 



1980..- 



14, 470 



350 



215 



95 



1990.-- 



17, 110 



330 



220 



105 



2000--. 



19, 320 



320 



225 



110 



High projections 



1980-.- 



14, 610 



350 



215 



95 



1990--. 



17, 390 



330 



220 



105 



2000-.. 



20, 040 



320 



225 



110 



1 Includes hardboard, insulation board, and particle- 

 board. 



Sources: Expenditures: U.S. Department of Commerce, 

 Bureau of the Census. Residential alterations and repairs. 

 C50-67A, Pt. 1, 1968, and C50-70A, 1971. Timber products 

 use: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. 



Projections: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

 Service. 



annual expenditures rise to about $19.3 billion 

 (medium level) by 2000 (table 123). This involves 

 a slight increase in annual expenditures per 

 household. 



Timber Products Use and Projected Demand 



Lumber consumption per thousand dollars of 

 expenditure for upkeep and improvements of 

 residential structures, based upon surveys in 

 sample cities, was estimated at about 390 board 

 feet in 1970 (table 123). It was assumed that future 

 lumber, use per dollar would decline at about the 

 same rate as per unit use in new 1- and 2-family 

 construction. 



With the assumed increases in expenditures, 

 total lumber demand rises from 4.7 billion board 

 feet in 1970 to about 5.1 billion board feet by 1980 



