DEMAND FOR TIMBER PRODUCTS 



161 



Table 124. — Timber products consumed in residential upkeep and improvements, 1970, with projections 



of demand (1970 relative prices) to WOO 1 



Year 



Lumber 



Plywood 

 (%-inch basis) 



Building board 2 

 (J^-inch basis) 



1970 



Million board feet 

 4,690 



Million square feet 

 2,510 



Million square feet 

 1,060 



Projections 



Year 



Low 



Medium 



High 



Low 



Medium 



High 



Low 



Medium 



High 



1980 



1990 



2000 



5,000 

 5,560 

 5,930 



5,060 

 5,680 

 6, 140 



5, 110 

 5,770 

 6,370 



3,060 



3, 720 



4, 190 



3, 100 

 3,800 

 4,350 



3, 130 

 3,860 

 4,510 



1,360 

 1,720 

 2,070 



1,370 



1, 760 



2, 140 



1,390 

 1, 790 

 2,220 



1 Includes both hardwoods and softwoods. Includes 

 allowance for on-site and manufacturing waste. 



(medium projection at 1970 relative prices), 

 with a further increase to 6.1 billion board feet by 

 2000 (table 124). 



Plywood use per thousand dollars of expenditures 

 in 1970 was estimated to be about 210 square feet. 

 It was assumed that this average would rise 

 slowly to about 225 square feet in 2000, with the 

 associated total demand (medium projection) 

 over 4.3 billion square feet — about 70 percent 

 above the level of use in 1970. 



Building board use averaged about 90 square 

 feet per thousand dollars of expenditures in 1970 

 and is assumed to increase to about 110 square 

 feet by 2000. Given this average use and pro- 

 jected expenditures, projected demand for build- 

 ing board in 2000 is 2.1 billion square feet — nearly 

 double the level of use in 1970. 



DEMAND FOR TIMBER PRODUCTS IN NEW 

 NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION 



Nearly 10 percent of the lumber and plywood 

 used in the United States in 1970 — plus substantial 

 volumes of building board — was consumed in a 

 wide variety of nonresidential buildings and 

 structures. 



In this study, nonresidential construction was 

 divided into five classes: (1) private commercial 

 buildings (offices, stores, warehouses, etc.) ; (2) 

 other buildings (public and private nonhouse- 

 keeping, industrial, educational, religious, hospital 

 and institutional buildings) ; (3) utility, water, and 

 sewer systems; (4) highways; and (5) all other 

 (military facilities, conservation and development 

 projects, railroad construction except track con- 

 struction, and construction not included in other 

 categories) . 



Nonresidential Construction Expenditures 



Expenditures in these classes of construction in 

 recent decades have fluctuated rather widely in 



2 Hardboard, insulation board, and particleboard. 



response to changing economic conditions (table 

 125, fig. 63). The longrun trend has been strongly 

 upward, however, with expenditures in most 

 classes rising between three and five times in the 

 50 years 1920 to 1970. Expenditures for highway 

 construction have shown even larger increases, a 

 reflection of the Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1956 

 which authorized the interstate highway system. 



Per capita expenditures also increased in the 

 1920-70 period, roughly doubling for most classes 

 of nonresidential construction (Append. V, table 

 6). 



Although growth rates for some classes are 

 dropping, substantial increases are projected for 

 each class of construction, ranging from around 2 

 times for highways to around 3 times for com- 

 mercial buildings. Per capita expenditures almost 

 double (medium projection) for all classes com- 

 bined (Append. V, table 6). Total projected ex- 

 penditures for new nonresidential construction 

 rise from $49 billion (1967 dollars) in 1970 to 

 $145 billion in 2000 (medium projection). 



Timber Products Use in Nonresidential Construction 



There have been divergent trends in the use of 

 different timber products in nonresidential con- 

 struction in recent years (table 126, fig. 64; 

 Append. V, tables 7-9). Between 1962 and 1970, 

 for example, estimated consumption of lumber 

 dropped from 3.0 to 2.6 billion board feet. Plywood 

 use, on the other hand, rose from 1.3 to 1.7 

 billion square feet (%-inch basis) and building 

 board increased from 0.4 to 0.7 billion square 

 feet (K-inch basis). 



In the post World War II years total expendi- 

 tures for nonresidential construction rose an aver- 

 age of 5.0 percent annually. During this period 

 there were close statistical relationships between 

 changes in expenditures for most classes of con- 

 struction and changes in gross national product 

 (fig. 63). 



