DEMAND FOR TIMBER PRODUCTS 



181 



Table 136. — Lumber consumption, by major end use, species group, and per capita use, 1962 and 1970, with projections (1970 



relative prices) to 2000 



Item 



1962 



1970 



Low projections ' 



Medium projections ' 



High projections ' 





1980 



1990 



2000 



1980 



1990 



2000 



1980 



1990 



2000 



By end use: 



Million 

 board 

 feet 

 13,940 

 4,400 

 3,930 

 4,240 

 4,340 

 6,450 



Million 

 board 

 feet 

 12,270 

 4,690 

 3,690 

 4,670 

 5,720 

 8,460 



Million 

 board 

 feet 

 16, 160 

 5,000 

 4,470 

 5,480 

 7,090 

 10,040 



Million 



board 



feet 



17,310 

 5,560 

 4,920 

 6,290 

 8,360 



11,160 



Million 



board 



feet 



16,000 

 5,930 

 5,450 

 7,140 

 9,390 



11,540 



Million 



board 



feet 



17, 180 

 5,030 

 4,700 

 5,720 

 7,710 



10, 610 



Million 



board 



feet 



18,650 

 5,680 

 5,310 

 6,850 

 9,390 



12,060 



Million 

 board 

 feet 

 17, 950 

 6,140 

 6,060 

 8,130 

 10, 910 

 12, 930 



Million 



board 



feet 



18,240 

 5,110 

 4,960 

 6,040 

 8,360 



11,230 



Million 

 board 

 feet 

 20,000 

 5,770 

 5,740 

 7,560 

 10, 530 

 13,040 



Million 

 board 

 feet 

 20,770 



Residential upkeep and improvements. 

 New nonresidential construction * 



6,370 

 6,740 

 9,360 





12,560 



All other uses s 



14, 670 







Total use 



37,300 



39, 500 



48,240 



53,600 



55, 450 



50, 980 



57,940 



62, 120 



53,940 



62,640 



70, 470 







By species group: 

 Softwoods 



30,800 

 6,500 



32,100 

 7,300 



39, 560 

 8,680 



43, 420 

 10, 180 



44,360 

 11,090 



41, 800 

 9,180 



46, 930 

 11,010 



49,700 

 12, 420 



44,230 

 9,710 



50, 740 

 11, 900 



56, 380 



Hardwoods 



14, 090 







Total use 



37,300 



39,500 



48,240 



53,600 



55, 450 



50, 980 



57,940 



62,120 



53, 940 



62,640 



70, 470 







Per capita average use 



Board 

 feet 



200 



Board 

 feet 



193 



Board 

 feet 



213 



Board 

 feet 



216 



Board 

 feet 



208 



Board 

 feet 



224 



Board 

 feet 



227 



Board 

 feet 



221 



Board 

 feet 



232 



Board 

 feet 



235 



Board 

 feet 



234 







1 Projections based on alternate assumptions about growth in population 

 and economic activity as specified in the introductory section of this chapter. 



3 In addition to new construction includes railroad ties laid as replacements 

 in existing track. 



8 Includes upkeep and improvement of nonresidential buildings and struc- 



tures; farm construction except housing; mining; made-at-home projects such 

 as furniture, boats, and picnic tables; made-on-the-job products like ad- 

 vertising and display structures; and a wide variety of other miscellaneous 

 products and uses. 



The alternative assumptions on population and 

 economic growth discussed in the introductory 

 section of this chapter have substantial impacts 

 on the demand for lumber in all end uses (table 

 136, fig. 69). As a result, by 2000 projected total 

 demand at 1970 relative prices ranges from 55.5 

 billion board feet to 70.5 billion board feet. 



Projected demand for lumber with alternative price 

 assumptions. — The alternative assumptions on 

 prices specified in the introductory section also 

 have substantial impacts on projections of demand 

 (table 137, fig. 69). Thus, with relative prices 

 rising at 1.5 percent per year, projected demands 

 for lumber (medium level) remain fairly constant 

 over the projection period at about 45 billion 

 board feet. 



With prices of softwood lumber 30 percent 

 above the 1970 average, projected demands for 

 lumber in 1980 would be about the same as 

 consumption in 1971. After 1980, however, pro- 

 jected demand under this price assumption rises 

 rapidly to 53 billion board feet in 2000. This 

 would be some 9 billion board feet below the 

 projected level at 1970 relative prices — a measure 

 of the possible loss of market share to competing 

 materials as a result of higher lumber prices. 



Lumber exports and imports. — In addition to 

 domestic demand there has been a modest export 

 demand for lumber for many decades (table 137; 

 Append. V, table 15). Lumber exports average 

 around 1.1 billion feet a year in the 1960's, and 

 this level, adjusted slightly for alternative price 

 assumptions, was assumed to continue through 

 the projection period. 



Between the late 1940's and the late 1960's 

 softwood lumber imports, nearly all from Canada, 

 rdse from less than a billion board feet to nearly 

 6 billion feet in 1970 and 9 billion board feet in 

 1972 (table 137). In years of reduced demand for 

 lumber in the United States, Canadian imports 

 have not dropped appreciably while production 

 in U.S. mills has declined. 



Findings of recent Canadian studies, sum- 

 marized in Chapter IV of this study, show that 

 Canada has the resources to support continued 

 expansion of lumber production and shipments 

 to the United States. However, in view of the 

 higher harvesting, manufacturing and transporta- 

 tion costs associated with the development of 

 the available resources, it appears that significant 

 increases in imports could not be attained without 

 a rise in relative prices of softwood lumber, as 

 occurred in 1971 and 1972. 



Accordingly, it was estimated that at 1970 

 relative prices, softwood lumber imports would 

 remain close to the 1970 level. With relative 

 lumber prices 30 percent above those of 1970, and 

 with prices rising at annual rates of 1.5 percent, 

 softwood lumber imports by 2000 were projected 

 to reach 12 and 13 billion board feet, respectively. 

 These estimates are believed to be consistent 

 with projections of softwood lumber production 

 and exports contained in Canadian reports 

 referred to in Chapter TV. 



Small volumes of hardwood lumber also have 

 been imported, mainly from Canada and various 

 tropical countries. These imports are projected 

 to range from 0.4 to 0.9 billion board feet by 2000 

 under the alternative price assumptions. 



