DEMAND FOR TIMBER PRODUCTS 



183 



Table 138. — Plywood consumption, by major end use, species group, and per capita use, 1962 and 1970, with projections (1970 



relative prices) to 2000 



[%-inch basis] 



Item 



1962 



1970 



Low projections ' 



Medium projections ' 



High projections ' 





1980 



1990 



2000 



1980 



1990 



2000 



1980 



1990 



2000 



By end use: 



Million 

 square 

 feet 

 4,180 

 1,030 

 1,280 

 1,870 

 3,356 



Million 

 square 

 feet 

 6,330 

 2,510 

 1,700 

 1,656 

 5,626 



Million 

 square 

 feet 

 9,560 

 3,060 

 2,580 

 2,290 

 8,080 



Million 

 square 

 feet 

 10,900 

 3,720 

 3,260 

 2,950 

 9,625 



Million 

 square 

 feet 

 10, 680 

 4,190 

 4,050 

 3,760 

 10,480 



Million 

 square 

 feet 

 10, 150 

 3,100 

 2,680 

 2,400 

 8,470 



Million 

 square 

 feet 

 11,750 

 3,800 

 3,530 

 3,220 

 10, 305 



Million 

 square 

 feet 

 11,990 

 4,350 

 4,550 

 4,300 

 11,640 



Million 

 square 

 feet 

 10, 770 

 3,130 

 2,800 

 2,530 

 8,885 



Million 

 square 

 feet 

 12, 600 

 3,860 

 3,800 

 3,570 

 11,010 



34, 840 



Million 

 square 

 feet 

 13, 910 



Residential upkeep and improvements. 

 New nonresidential construction 



4,510 

 5,100 

 5,010 





13,185 







Total use 



11,716 



17, 822 



25, 570 



30, 455 



33, 160 



26, 800 



32, 605 



36,830 



28, 115 



41,715 







By species group: 

 Softwoods 



9,311 

 2,404 



14, 038 

 3,784 



19, 945 

 5,625 



23,755 

 6,700 



25, 865 

 7,295 



20, 905 

 5,895 



25, 430 

 7,175 



28, 725 

 8,105 



21, 930 

 6,185 



27, 175 

 7,665 



32, 540 



Hardwoods 



9,175 



Total use 



11,716 



17, 822 



25,570 



30, 455 



33, 160 



26,800 



32, 605 



36,830 



28,115 



34,840 



41,715 







Per capita average use. 



Square 

 feet 

 63 



Square 

 feet 

 87 



Square 

 feet 

 113 



Square 

 feet 

 123 



Square 

 feet 

 125 



Square 

 feet 

 118 



Square 

 feet 

 128 



Square 

 feet 

 131 



Square 

 feet 

 121 



Square 

 feet 

 131 



Square 

 feet 

 139 







1 Projections based on alternate assumptions about growth in population 

 and economic activity as specified in the introductory section of this chapter. 



2 Includes shipping; upkeep and improvement of nonresidential buildings 

 and structures; farm construction except housing; mining; made-at-home 

 projects such as furniture and boats; made-on-the-job products like adver- 



tising and display structures; and a wide variety of other miscellaneous 

 products and uses. 



Note: Veneer is included in the estimates for manufacturing and shipping. 



square feet in 1972 (tables 138 and 139; fig. 70; 

 Append. V, table 16). Consumption in 1972 was 

 about 6 times the volume consumed in 1950 — 

 and the peak in a trend that has been rising at 

 annual rate of 8.5 percent for more than two 

 decades. Per capita consumption in this period 

 also showed a sharp upward trend from around 

 25 square feet in 1950 to 112 square feet in 1972. 



About 36 percent of the plywood consumed in 

 1970 went into the production of new housing, 

 and 24 percent into other types of construction 

 including residential upkeep and improvements. 

 The remainder was used in manufacturing and other 

 unclassified uses. 



Data for the early 1960's indicate that several 

 billion square feet of veneer was also used at that 

 time in the manufacture of products such as furni- 

 ture and matches and in shipping containers. 

 Although separate estimates of veneer consump- 

 tion and production are not shown here because 

 of the lack of recent data, these items are included 

 in the estimates of veneer log consumption and 

 production shown later in this chapter. 



The rapid rise in plywood consumption in 

 1950's and early 1960's was caused in large part 

 by widespread substitution of softwood plywood 

 for lumber in sheathing and subflooring in resi- 

 dential construction and in concrete formwork, 

 and by the growing use of hardwood plywood 

 for paneling in residential construction and the 

 manufacture of furniture. Trends in use in the 

 late 1960's and early 1970's and data obtained 

 from studies of wood use in construction suggest 

 that most of the potential substitution of soft- 

 wood plywood for lumber in construction has taken 

 place. 



Projected demand for plywood. — Nonetheless, 

 projected growth in construction and manufac- 

 turing is large enough to result in very substantial 

 increases in projected demands for plywood. At 

 1970 relative prices, the medium projection of 

 demand in 2000 is 36.8 billion square feet (%-inch 

 basis) — slightly more than double consumption in 

 1970. Per capita demand is projected to increase 

 by 1.5 times to 131 square feet. 



As in the case of lumber, the alternative assump- 

 tions on growth in population and economic 

 activity, and on prices, have substantial impacts 

 on projected demand (tables 138 and 139, fig. 70). 

 For example, if relative prices rise 1 percent per 

 year, projected demand (medium level) in 2000 

 would be some 20 percent under the projected level 

 assuming 1970 relative prices. 



Since the late 1950's softwood plywood has com- 

 posed about four-fifths of total plywood consump- 

 tion. An analysis of prospective growth in demand 

 by major end uses indicated that this percentage 

 is likely to remain about the same through the 

 projection period. 



Plywood exports and imports. — Softwood ply- 

 wood exports have been of minor importance, 

 reaching a peak of about 200 mrMion square feet 

 (%-inch basis) in the late 1960's (table 139; 

 Append. V, table 16). Although some further 

 modest increases in exports are likely, the volume 

 is not expected to be significant in relation to 

 production or consumption. 



Exports of hardwood plywood have amounted 

 to less than 100 million square feet in recent 

 decades. Such exports are also expected to remain 

 small during the projection period. 



