186 



THE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER IN THE "UNITED STATES 



Projected demand for plywood produced by 

 domestic industries show continued and rapid 

 growth under all price assumptions. By 2000 pro- 

 jected demands range from 25.3 billion square feet 

 (with prices rising at 1 percent per year) to 33.3 

 billion square feet (at 1970 relative prices). Most 

 of the projected increases are for softwood ply- 

 wood. 



Building Board Consumption and Demand 



Building board consumption including insulation 

 board, hardboard, and particleboard reached 14.1 

 billion square feet (%-inch basis) in 1972 — over 4 

 times the volume consumed in 1950 (tables 140 

 and 141). Per capita consumption more than 

 tripled in this period, rising from 22 to 68 square 

 feet. 



In the 1950's and 1960's particleboard consump- 

 tion showed the largest increase, rising from less 

 than 50 million square feet in 1950 to 6.3 billion 

 square feet in 1972 — an average annual rate of 

 about 25 percent. Hardboard use also rose rapidly, 

 with an average annual increase of 9.5 percent. 

 Although use of insulation board has been rela- 

 tively stable, this product still accounted for 40 

 percent of all building board consumed in 1972. 



The fast growth in use of particleboard largely 

 reflects the substitution of this product for lumber 

 and plywood used as core stock in the manu- 

 facture of furniture, doors, and cabinets. Much of 

 the growth in use since the late 1950's reflects 

 similar substitution for floor underlayment. Pres- 

 ent work on the development of structural grades 

 of particleboard also suggests the likelihood of 

 further substitution for softwood plywood used as 

 subflooring and roof sheathing in construction. 



Much of the recent increase in the use of 

 hardboard also reflects substitution for lumber 

 and plywood, especially in the furniture industry. 

 Use of insulation board, on the other hand, has 

 been closely related to construction activity. 



Projected demand for building board. — Projec- 

 tions of demand for building board (medium 

 level) at 1970 relative prices reach 28 billion 

 square feet (%-inch basis) b}^ 2000 — some 3 times 

 the volume consumed in 1970 (table 140). Pro- 

 jected per capita demand roughly doubles rising 

 from 47 to 100 square feet. Particleboard and 

 hardboard are expected to show the largest 

 increases as in recent years. 



The alternative assumptions on growth in 

 population and economic activity have substan- 

 tial impacts with projected total demands in 

 2000 ranging from about 25 to 32 billion square 

 feet (table 140). Alternative assumptions on 

 prices, on the other hand, have relatively little 

 effect, largely because of the small size of the 

 assumed price increases and the assumed inelas- 

 ticity of demand (table 141). 



Demand on U.S. mills for building board. — 

 Exports and imports of building board have been 

 relatively small, and this situation is expected to 

 continue through the projection period. By far 

 the largest part of projected demands will thus 

 have to be supplied by U.S. industries from 

 domestic timber resources. A substantial part of 

 this demand for wood is expected to be supplied 

 by plant residues. 



Meeting the medium projection of demand in 

 2000, at all assumed price levels, would involve 

 more than doubling the size of the particleboard 

 and hardboard industries and expanding the insu- 



Table 140. — Building board consumption, by major end use, type of board, and per capita use, 1970, with projections (1970 



relative prices) to 2000 



[K-inch basis] 



Item 



1970 



Low projection ' 



Medi 



um projection ' 



High projection 1 





1980 



1990 



2000 



1980 



1990 



2000 



1980 



1990 



2000 



Py end use: 

 New housing 



Million 

 square 

 feet 

 2,760 

 1,415 

 960 

 1,790 

 2,683 



Million 

 square 

 feet 

 4,225 

 1,815 

 1,375 

 3,375 

 4,615 



Million 

 square 

 feet 

 5,065 

 2,295 

 1,705 

 5,215 

 6,125 



Million 

 square 

 feet 

 5,305 

 2,760 

 1,890 

 7,590 

 7,520 



Million 

 square 

 feet 

 4,480 

 1,825 

 1,440 

 3,545 

 4,840 



Million 

 square 

 feet 

 5,440 

 2,345 

 1,840 

 5,715 

 6,575 



Million 

 square 

 feet 

 5,920 

 2,855 

 2,130 

 8,695 

 8,400 



Million 

 square 

 feet 

 4.730 

 1,855 

 1,495 

 3,750 

 5,065 



Million 

 square 

 feet 

 5,825 

 2,385 

 1,985 

 6,360 

 7,100 



Million 

 square 

 feet 

 6,840 



Residential upkeep and improvements 



2,960 



New nonresidential construction 



2,385 



Manufacturing 



10,165 



All other uses 2 



9,575 







Total 



9,608 



15, 405 



20, 405 



25,065 



16, 130 



21,915 



28,000 



16,895 



23,655 



31,925 







By type of board: 

 Insulation board 



4,552 

 1,541 

 3,515 



4,975 

 2,475 

 7,955 



5,690 

 3,430 

 11,285 



7,110 



4,380 

 13, 575 



5,330 

 2,570 

 8,230 



6,040 

 3,905 

 11,970 



7,820 

 5,430 

 14, 750 



5,690 

 2,760 

 8,445 



6,755 

 4,570 

 12, 330 



8,530 



Hardboard 



7,145 



Particleboard 



16,250 







Total use 



9,608 



15, 405 



20,405 



25,065 



16, 130 



21, 915 



2S.000 



16, 895 



23,655 



31,925 







Per capita average use 



Square 

 feet 

 47 



Square 

 feet 

 68 



Square 

 feet 

 82 



Square 

 feet 

 94 



Square 

 feet 

 71 



Square 

 feet 

 86 



Square 

 feet 

 100 



Square 

 feet 

 73 



Square 

 feet 

 89 



Square 

 feet 

 106 







1 Projections based on alternate assumptions about growth in population 

 and economic activity as specified in the introductory section of this chapter. 



2 Includes upkeep and improvement of nonresidential buildings and struc- 



tures; shipping; farm structures, except housing; mining; made-at-home projects 

 such as furniture; made-on-the-job products like advertising and display struc- 

 tures; and a wide variety of other miscellaneous products and uses. 



