188 



THE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER IN THE UNITED STATES 



lation board industry about 50 percent, Projected 

 demands for wood for such production are included 

 with pulpwood for hardboard and insulation board, 

 and with miscellaneous timber products for 

 particleboard. 



DEMAND FOR PULPWOOD 



Since 1920 pulpwood consumption in United 

 States mills has increased 12 times, rising to 5.6 

 billion cubic feet in 1972 u (72 .4 million cords). 

 Export demand, including the pulpwood equiv- 

 alent of pulp and paper, increased nineteenfold 

 to 0.7 billion cubic feet (9.5 million cords). As a 

 result of such growth, nearly half of the cubic 

 volume of timber harvested from domestic forests 

 is used as pulpwood. 



Demand for pulpwood is a derived demand in 

 the sense that it is determined by demands for 

 paper, board, and other pulp products. The analy- 

 sis below consequently first considers trends in 

 the use of these end products. Demands for paper 

 and board are then converted to requirements for 

 woodpulp, wastepaper, and other fibers. Projected 

 demands for woodpulp are, in turn, converted to 

 requirements for pulpwood. 



Demand for Paper and Board 



Consumption of paper and board increased from 

 about 8 million tons in 1920 to 64 million tons in 

 1972 (table 142; fig. 71; Append. V, table 17). 

 Annual rates of growth calculated from trend 

 values, averaged 4.8 percent in the years 1920-40 

 then fell to 4.1 percent in the 1950-70 period. 



Per capita consumption of paper and board 

 increased about 4 times in the 1920-72 period, 

 rising from 145 to 616 pounds (table 143, fig. 71). 

 Rates of growth in per capita use also showed a 

 substantial decline falling from an average of 3.7 

 percent annually in the pre-World War II decades 

 to 2.6 percent in the postwar decades. 



Factors affecting consumption. — Part of the 

 growth in paper and board consumption in past 

 decades can be attributed to increases in popula- 

 tion, economic activity, and disposable personal 

 income. Part of the growth is the result of major 

 displacement of other materials such as lumber, 

 veneer, cooperage, and metals in such products 

 as shipping containers. Development of large 

 markets for new products such as food board, milk 

 cartons, and computer paper also has contributed 

 to increases in consumption. 



The declining rate of growth in consumption, 

 on the other hand, is partly due to the fact that 



Paper and board consumption, 1920-71, with 

 projections to 2000 



1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 



Figure 71 



per capita use of some grades of paper and board 

 is beginning to level off as it moves toward a 

 saturation level. 35 It also reflects stronger com- 

 petition from materials that compete with paper 

 and board. Use of plastics for packaging foods and 

 many other products, for example, has cut into 

 the demand for several grades of paper and board. 

 Products such as synthetic writing and printing 

 paper now under development also may affect 

 demands in the future. 



In projecting demands for paper and board, 

 however, it seems likely that ultimate scarcities 

 and rising prices of raw materials such as petro- 

 leum, together with environmental factors relating 

 to manufacturing pollution, and problems of 



34 This included 3.7 billion cubic feet of roundwood used 

 directly in pulping and 1.9 billion cubic feet of chips and 

 sawdust obtained from slabs, edgings, veneer cores, and 

 other residues of primal manufacturing plants. 



as For a more complete discussion of the tendency of 

 per capita consumption to approach a saturation value see : 

 ' U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. Use ot 

 regression equations for projecting trends m demand for 

 paper and board. U.S. Dept. Agr. Forest Resource Rep. 

 18, 178 p. 1967. , _ . ,. 



United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. 

 World demand for paper to 1975. 1959 p. Rome. 1960. 



United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. 

 Pulp and paper prospects in western Europe. 456 p. Rome. 

 1963. 



