DEMAND FOR TIMBER PRODUCTS 



191 



disposal of nonbiodegradable products, 36 will tend 

 to limit inroads of competitive materials in most 

 markets for paper and board. This appears espe- 

 cially likely over the range in which the prices of 

 paper and board can reasonably be expected to 

 increase in the next two or three decades. 



While substitution may be limited in the pro- 

 jection period, it nonetheless seems likely that the 

 rate of growth in consumption, and especially per 

 capita consumption, will continue to decline as 

 consumption approaches some maximum or sat- 

 uration level for different products and uses. 



Relationships between paper and board consump- 

 tion and economic variables. — In the past there 

 have been large differences in rates of growth in 

 consumption of the major grades of paper and 

 board. These have resulted from the development 

 of new pulp-based products, inroads of substitutes, 

 varying rates of growth in major sectors of the 

 economy, and other factors such as changes in 

 consumer tastes. 



In partial recognition of these differences the 

 various types and grades of paper and board 

 have been grouped into three categories — paper, 

 paperboard, and building board (insulation board 

 and hardboard) — which have a common relation- 

 ship to one or more of the basic determinants of 

 demand discussed in the introductory section of 

 this chapter (see Append. V, tables 18-20 for 

 historical statistics for these categories). 37 



Because most paper is consumed in one form 

 or another by individuals, with the level of use 

 a function of income, there has been a close 

 statistical relationship between changes in per 

 capita consumption of paper and changes in per 



36 For a more complete discussion of the problems 

 associated with the development and use of plastics in 

 place of paper and board see: 



Copelman, Serge, and Guy Jacqueline. Synthetic 

 paper: Japan leads the way in technological development. 

 Pulp and Paper 45(5) :1 11-1 15. 



United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. 

 Note on substitution by and for paper and paperboard. 

 FO:PAP/DST/71/1.3 of the Second Consultation on 

 World Pulp and Paper Demand, Supply and Trade. 1971. 



United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. 

 Present status of development of synthetic paper in Japan. 

 FP/PAP/DST/1.9 of the Second Consultation on World 

 Pulp and Paper Demand, Supply and Trade. 1971. 



37 In previous Forest Service reports presenting esti- 

 mates of demand for paper and board, as in Use of regres- 

 sion equations for projecting trends in demand for paper 

 and board, Op. cit., separate projections were made for a 

 number of major types of paper and board, such as news- 

 print, printing papers, packaging papers, container board, 

 etc. Such detailed projections are not presented in this 

 study because of difficulties in developing statistical series 

 as a result of extensive changes made in 1967 in the 

 definitions and classifications of various grades of paper 

 and board, and lack of recent information on the kinds 

 of fibrous materials used in the furnish of different types 

 of paper and board. 



Relationship between per capita paper 

 consumption and per capita disposable 

 personal income, 1929-70 



1500 2000 



capita disposable perso 



2500 

 i (1967 dollars) 



Relationship between per capita paper boai 

 consumption and per capita gross national 

 product, 1920-70 



2 z 



1300 WOO 2500 3100 3700 4300 



Per capita gross national product 11967 dollars) 



Fisurc 72 



capita disposable personal income 38 (fig. 72). 

 In the case of paperboard, which is used pri- 

 marily for packaging industrial and agricultural 

 commodities, per capita consumption has shown 

 a close relationship to changes in the per capita 

 gross national product. Most of the growth in 

 the consumption of building board (insulation 

 board and hardboard), which is used in construc- 

 tion for such purposes as sheathing and under- 

 layment and in manufacturing, has been associated 

 with changes in these sectors of the economy. 

 Projected demands for paper and board. — On 

 the basis of past relationships and trends in 

 use, total demand for paper and board at 1970 



38 The choice of independent variable, base time period, 

 units of measurement, form of equation, and kind of 

 equation used in this analysis for projecting demands for 

 paper and paperboard were based on guides developed 

 in the study Use of regression equations for projecting 

 trends in demand for paper and board, Op. cit. 



