192 



THE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER IN THE UNITED STATES'. 



relative prices is projected to rise to 83 million 

 tons (medium level) in 1980, and to 157 million 

 tons in 2000 — some 2.7 times consumption in 

 1970 (table 142, fig. 71). Projections of per capita 

 demand also rise rapidly, reaching 729 pounds 

 in 1980 and 1,114 pounds in 2000 (table 143, 



fi g- 71 )- 



As indicated in the following tabulation, the 



medium projections of demand for paper and 



board in 1980 are close to projections shown in 



a preceding Forest Service study 39 and to those 



developed by Slatin of the American Paper 



Institute 40 and the Midwest Research Institute. 41 



Total (million tons) Per capita (pounds) 



Paper Paper 



and and 



board Paper Board board Paper Board 



This study 83 43 40 729 381 348 



Preceding FS 



study 86 44 42 728 376 352 



API study 87 45 42 



MRIstudy 83 42 41 



Annual rates of growth in both total and per 

 capita demands for paper and board show sub- 

 stantial declines over the projection period. That 

 for per capita demand, for example, falls from an 

 average of 2.4 percent in the 1960's to 2.0 percent 

 in the 1990's. 



Effects of the alternative assumptions on 

 growth in population and gross national product 

 are substantial, with projected total demand for 

 paper and board ranging from 130 million tons to 

 190 million tons in 2000 (table 143). These pro- 

 jections would, of course, be somewhat lower with 

 higher prices, as indicated in the tabulation below 

 showing the medium projections of demand under 

 alternative price assumptions. 



Projections — 1970 relative prices 



Year Total Paper Board 



(million (million (million 



tons) tons) tons) 



1980 83.1 43.4 39.7 



1990 116.1 59.2 56.9 



2000 156.6 78.0 78.6 



Projections — relative prices rising 0.5 percent per year 



1980 82.6 43.1 39.5 



1990 114.3 58.3 56.0 



2000 152.5 76.0 76.5 



Projections — relative prices 10 percent above 1970 average 



1980 81.4 42.5 38.9 



1990 113.8 58.0 55.8 



2000 153.5 76.5 77.0 



With inelastic demand, as assumed in the 

 introductorj'- section, projections would be lowered 



39 U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. 

 Use of regession equations for projecting trends in demand 

 for paper and board. Op. cit. 



40 Slatin, Benjamin. Timber requirements of the paper 

 industry in the seventies and eighties. American Paper 

 Institute. New York. 1971. 



41 Midwest Research Institute. Paper recycling the art 

 of the possible 1970-1985. Kansas City. 1973. 



appreciably only with very large increases in 

 relative prices. 



Exports of paper and board. — Exports of paper 

 and board have been small in relation to U.S. 

 consumption, but have risen rapidly in recent }'ears 

 to a 1972 total of 3 million tons (table 144; 



Table 144. — Paper and board consumption, exports, 

 imports, and domestic production, selected years 

 1920-72, with projections l (1970 relative prices) 

 to 2000 2 



[Million tons] 





Apparent 







Domestic 



Year 



consump- 

 tion 



Exports 



Imports 



produc- 

 tion 



1920 



7. 7 . 



0. 2 



0. 8 



7. 2 



1925 



10. 4 



. 1 



1. 5 



9. 



1930_ . 



12. 3 



. 2 



2.3 



10. 2 



1935 



12.8 



. 1 



2.4 



10.5 



1940 



16. 8 



. 5 



2.8 



14. 5 



1945 



19. 8 



. 4 



2. 8 



17. 4 



1950 



29. 1 



. 3 



5.0 



24. 4 



1955 



35. 



. 7 



5.5 



30. 2 



1960 



39. 3 



. 9 



5. 7 



34. 4 



1965 



49. 2 



1. 6 



6.8 



44. 1 



1966 



52. 8 



1. 8 



7. 5 



47. 1 



1967 



52. 



2.0 



7. 1 



46. 9 



1968 



55. 8 



2.5 



7.0 



51. 2 



1969__ 



59. 



2. 6 



7.4 



54. 2 



1970 



58. 1 



2.7 



7.2 



53. 5 



1971 



59. 7 



3.0 



7. 6 



55. 1 



1972 3 



64. 3 



3. 



7. 9 



59. 3 





Low 



projections 





Year 



Domestic 

 demand 



Exports 



Imports 



Demand on 

 U.S. mills 



1980 



1990 



2000. . 



78.2 

 102. 5 

 130.4 



3. 5 

 3.5 

 3.5 



8.0 

 8.0 

 8.0 



73. 7 



98.0 



125. 9 



Medium projections 



1980 



83. 1 



3. 5 



8.0 



78. 6 



1990 



116. 1 



3.5 



8. 



111. 6 



2000. ... 



156. 6 



3. 5 



8.0 



152. 1 





High projections 





1980 



1990 



2000 



89.0 

 132. 7 

 190. 2 



3. 5 

 3.5 

 3.5 



8.0 

 8.0 

 8.0 



84. 5 

 128. 2 

 185. 7 



1 Projections based on alternative assumptions about 

 growth in population and economic activity as specified in 

 the introductory section of this chapter. 



2 Data may not add to totals because of rounding. 



3 Preliminary. 



Sources: See source note, table 142. 



