DEMAND FOR TIMBER PRODUCTS 



193 



Append. V, tables 17-20). Exports of nearly all 

 grades of paper and board have shown some 

 increase, but kraft linerboard has accounted for 

 by far the largest part of the recent growth. 



Exports of paper and board have moved to all 

 regions of the world (Append. V, table 21). How- 

 ever, in 1971 about 44 percent of the total went to 

 Western Europe and another 23 percent to Latin 

 America. Nearly all of the remainder was shipped 

 to Japan, Canada, and Africa. Most of the growth 

 in exports in the 1960's was to Western Europe 

 and Latin America. 



A recent study by the Food and Agriculture 

 Organization of the United Nations indicates that 

 world demands for paper and board are likely to 

 continue to grow rapidly, as indicated in the 

 tabulation below: 42 



Consump- Projected demand 



tion in 



1969 1976 1980 1986 



(■million {million (million (million 



tons) tons) tons) tons) 



Western Europe. 35.0 49.4 63.0 81.4 



Japan 12.3 22.7 33.5 45.0 



Latin America 5.0 7.5 10.6 14.4 



Eastern Europe and USSR. 11.8 17.1 22.5 32.3 

 All other (except North 



America) 11.0 15.9 22.4 30.5 



Total 75.1 112.6 152.0 203.6 



This, and other similar studies, conclude that 

 forest resources in western Europe and Japan are 

 not large enough to supply prospective demands 

 for timber products. 43 (For a more detailed 

 discussion of the timber demand and supply 

 situation in western Europe and Japan see 

 Chapter IV.) This means that more and more of 

 the rapidly growing demands for paper and board 

 in these countries must be supplied from timber 

 resources in other parts of the world. 



In view of the prospective demand and resource 

 situation in the major importing areas it appears 

 likely that export demands for paper and board 

 produced in the United States will continue to 

 increase in the years immediately ahead. How- 

 ever, the United States is faced with a tightening 

 timber supply situation (see Chapter VI) and 

 consequently exports have been assumed to level 

 off at 3.5 million tons a year. 



Developments in other parts of the world 

 could also change the outlook. For example, it 

 may be technically and economically feasible 

 to use increasing quantities of pulp made from 

 tropical hardwoods, fast growing plantation 



42 United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. 

 Outlook for pulp and paper consumption, production, and 

 trade to 1985. Second Consultation on World Pulp and 

 Paper Demand Supply and Trade. Rome. 1971. 



43 United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization 

 and United Nations Economic Commission for Europe. 

 European timber trends and prospects, 1950-1980 and 

 interim review. Geneva. 1966. 



United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. 

 Wood — world trends and prospects. Rome. 1967. 



Japan Lumber Journal, Inc. Japan Lumber Journal. 

 Tokyo. Biweekly. 



species, or nonwood fibers. These sources of fiber 

 could support large increases in pulp production 

 in Latin America, Africa, and the Far East, and 

 expanded paper and board production in western 

 Europe and Japan. Also development of the 

 enormous softwood resources in the USSR could 

 add to world supplies of market pulp. 



Imports of paper and board. — U.S. imports of 

 paper and board have been substantially larger 

 than exports and have increased fairly steadily 

 to a level of 7.9 million tons in 1972 (table 144; 

 Append. V, tables 17-20). 



Newsprint has composed 70 percent or more of 

 the imports since before 1920. However, in recent 

 years some other grades, especially building 

 board, have increased in relative importance. 

 Canada provided about 95 percent of the imports 

 of newsprint in 1971 and most other grades as 

 well (Append. V, table 22). 



Although imports have increased somewhat in 

 the last few years, it appears unlikely that Canada 

 could significantly increase recent levels of ship- 

 ments to the United States unless prices rise 

 enough to cover the higher costs of utilizing 

 timber in the undeveloped northern parts of the 

 Canadian provinces (see discussion Chapter IV). 

 Thus, it was assumed that at 1970 relative prices 

 imports of paper and board would remain at about 

 the 1972 level. With higher prices Canada could 

 provide much larger volumes of paper and board, 

 with actual imports depending in part on U.S. 

 demand. 



In the 1947-70 period there was a close statis- 

 tical relationship between paper and board imports 

 and domestic consumption. Projections (medium 

 level) based on this relationship, and the rising 

 price assumption, rise to 13.5 million tons by 

 2000 — some 5.6 million tons above the 1972 volume 

 as shown in the following tabulation. 



Projections — 1970 relative -prices 



Total demand Exports Imports Demand on U.S. 



Year (million (million (million mills 



tons) tons) tons) (million tons) 



1980 83.1 3.5 8.0 78.6 



1990 116.1 3.5 8.0 111.6 



2000 156.6 3.5 8.0 152.1 



Projections — relative prices rising 0.5 percent per year 



1980 82.6 3.5 10.5 75.6 



1990 114.3 3.5 12.5 105.3 



2000 152.5 3.5 13.5 142.5 



Projections — relative prices 10 percent above 1970 average 



1980 81.4 3.5 10.5 74.4 



1990 113.8 3.5 11.5 105.8 



2000 153. 5 3. 5 12. 145. 



Demand on U.S. mills for paper and board. — 

 Production of paper and board in U.S. mills has 

 increased rapidly in recent decades to 59.3 million 

 tons in 1972 (table 144). Meeting projected domes- 

 tic and export demands at 1970 prices after allow- 



