194 



THE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER IN THE UNITED STATES 



ances for imports, would require an increase in 

 domestic production (demand on U.S. mills) to 

 about 79 million tons by 1980 (medium projec- 

 tion), and to about 152 million tons in 2000. 



Annual growth rates for domestic production 

 of paper and board averaged about 4.4 percent in 

 the 1960's. Projected increases in demand on U.S. 

 mills (medium level — 1970 relative prices) average 

 only 3.9 percent annually in the 1970's, and 3.1 

 percent in the 1990's. 



Despite the drop in rates of growth, projected 

 increases in demand on U.S. mills would require 

 a very large expansion of the domestic paper and 

 board industry in the next three decades. In the 

 1980's the medium projection of demands, with 

 rising relative prices, increases by about 3.0 mil- 

 lion tons a year, with further growth to over 3.7 

 million tons annually in the 1990's. In the 1960's 

 production increased about 1.9 million tons a year. 



Under the alternative and higher price assump- 

 tions, demand on U.S. mills would be lowered 

 somewhat (see tabulation above) because of a 

 reduction in total demand and an increase in im- 

 ports. Demands on U.S. mills would still involve 

 a much larger expansion of the U.S. industry than 

 anything experienced in the past. 



Demand for Fibrous Material for Paper and Board 

 Manufacture 



The manufacture of 59.3 million tons of paper 

 and board in the United States in 1972 required 

 some 58.8 million tons of fibrous material, in- 

 cluding some 46.6 million tons of woodpulp, 11.3 

 million tons of wastepaper, and 0.9 million tons of 

 cotton, bagasse, and other fibers (table 145; fig. 73; 

 Append. V, table 23). The trend in consumption 

 of all fibrous material has closely paralleled the 

 trend in paper and board production, more than 



doubling since 1950 and increasing about 9 times 

 since 1919. 



In contrast to this upward trend, average use 

 of fibrous materials per ton of paper and board 

 produced has been nearly constant in recent 

 decades — varying between 0.992 and 1.092 tons 

 since the late 1920's (table 145, fig. 73; Append. 

 V, table 23). It was assumed that average use 

 would remain at a level of 1.03 tons through the 

 projection period. 44 



Although there has not been much change in 

 the use of fibrous materials per ton of production, 

 there have been large changes in the mix of fibers 

 consumed. In the last two decades, for example, 

 new woodpulp has risen from roughly 64 percent 

 of the total fibrous materials used to around 80 

 percent of the total. Use of wastepaper, on the 

 other hand, declined from 31 percent of the total 

 fibers used in 1950 to around 19 percent in 1972. 

 Use of other fibers dropped from about 5 percent 

 to less than 2 percent. 



The sharp upward trend in use of new wood- 

 pulp, and the concomitant decline in the pro- 

 portion of wastepaper used, reflect many technical 

 and economic factors. For example, use of new 

 woodpulp results in relatively stronger and light- 

 weight paper and board products. New woodpulps 

 are relatively free of biological and other contami- 

 nants. Integration of the industry with production 

 of both pulp and paper concentrated in large 

 complexes designed to fully utilize the timber 

 harvested has tended to favor production of virgin 

 pulps over wastepaper reuse. Use of rec} r cled 



44 The assumed increase in the use of wastepaper per ton 

 of paper and board produced discussed below would tend 

 to raise this average. However, it was assumed that this 

 would be offset by increasing use of nonfiber additives and 

 improvements in technology. 



Fibrous materials consumed in the manufacture of paper and board, 1920-71, 

 with projections to 2000 



