196 



THE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER IN THE UNITED STATES 



fibers also has been inhibited by high costs of 

 collecting, sorting, cleaning, and transporting 

 wastepaper. 



Projected use of wastepaper. — New forces are 

 developing, however, that appear likely to change 

 the relative importance of new and rec}^cled 

 pulps. 45 Increasing concern over pollution of the 

 environment, and the growing costs and diffi- 

 culties of solid waste disposal, have stimulated 

 much interest and action by Government and 

 industry to increase recycling. 



For example, Federal and other agencies have 

 modified purchase specifications to require mini- 

 mum proportions of recycled fibers in some paper 

 and board purchases. Research also is being 

 stepped up to identify ways of increasing reuse of 

 wastepaper. Various other forms of assistance or 

 regulation are being considered. 



Although these things are underway announced 

 expansion plans of the pulp and paper industry 

 indicate that during the early 1970's use of waste- 

 paper as a proportion of total fibrous materials 

 used is not likely to increase appreciably. In the 

 longer run, however, factors favoring greater 

 recycling such as mentioned above, together with 

 increasing competition for available timber, point 

 to the likelihood of substantial growth in recycling 

 of wastepaper. 



Use of recycled fibers per ton of paper and 

 board produced has therefore been assumed to 

 rise from 0.19 ton in 1972 to 0.23 ton by 1980, 46 

 and to 0.35 ton by 2000 (table 145, fig. 73). The 

 latter level is close to rates currently achieved in 

 such countries as Japan and the Netherlands, and 

 to use achieved for a time in the United States 

 during World War II. Conversely, projected use 

 of new woodpulp drops from 0.81 ton in 1970 to 

 0.67 ton in 2000. Estimated use of other fibrous 

 materials remains unchanged at about 1 percent 

 of the total. 



45 See for example: 



American Paper Institute. 1970 a test of stamina. New 

 York. 1971. 



Joseph E. Atchison Consultants, Inc. Report on a 

 preliminary study of waste paper and prospects for its 

 increased recycling. New York. 1970. 



Midwest Research Institute. Paper recycling, the art 

 of the possible 1970-1985. Kansas City. 1973. 



Perry, Henry J. The economics of waste paper use: 

 Part I. Pulp and Paper 45(4):83-84; and The economics 

 of waste paper reuse: Part II. Pulp and Paper 45(5) :82-84. 



Tuchman, Samson G. The economics of the waste paper 

 industry. Ph.D. dissertation. Dept. of Economics, New 

 York Univ. New York. 1963. 



U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Domestic 

 Commerce. Pulp, paper and board. Industry Reps. XXVI 

 (3) . Quarterly. 1970. 



Williams, Ward C. CCA makes corrugating medium at 

 1,100 ft./min. from 100% waste paper. Pulp and Paper 

 44(12) :112-116; and Use it/reuse it! political, economic 

 pressures brighten future for waste. 44(10) :61-65. 



46 The Midwest Research Institute in its report "Paper 

 recycling the art of the possible," op. cit., estimated that 

 the recycling rate would rise to 24 percent by 1990. 



Total demands for wastepaper given the above 

 rates would rise from about 11 million tons in 1970 

 to 18 million tons by 1980 and to 53 million tons 

 by 2000. Such projected reuse in 2000 would prob- 

 ably be close to a practical maximum considering 

 availability and cost factors. Part of the paper and 

 board consumed for such purposes as books and 

 records is not available for recycling. Other parts 

 . are scattered or in locations remote from recy- 

 cling plants, so badly contaminated as to prohibit 

 reuse, or destroyed by the first use. 



Projected demand for woodpidp for paper and 

 board. — Under the above assumptions on future 

 fiber mix, the medium projection of demand for 

 woodpulp for production of paper and board in 

 the United States at 1970 relative prices rises from 

 46.6 million tons in 1972 to 62.1 million tons by 

 1980, and to 101.9 million tons by 2000. This 

 would require an average annual increase in wood- 

 pulp consumption of 1.9 million tons in the 1970's 

 and 2.2 million tons in the 1990's. 



As in the case of paper and board, rates of in- 

 crease in projected demand for woodpulp for the 

 domestic manufacture of paper and board calcu- 

 lated from trend values fall rather sharply over the 

 projection period, from 5.4 percent per year in the 

 1950-70 period to 3.1 percent in the 1970's and to 

 2.4 percent in the 1990's 



Demand for woodpidp in nonpaper products. — 

 In addition to pulp used in the manufacture of 

 paper and board, about 1.3 million tons of wood- 

 pulp was used in 1972 for products such as rayon, 

 cellulose acetate, and plastics. This was below the 

 peak of 1.5 million tons attained in 1969, but some 

 4.6 times consumption in 1940 (table 146). Per 

 capita use has also increased substantially since 

 1940. 



Since the late 1940's there has been a fairly 

 close statistical relationship between changes in 

 the consumption of woodpidp in the manufacture 

 of nonpaper products and changes in gross na- 

 tional product. Primarily on the basis of this re- 

 lationship, demand (medium level) was projected 

 to grow to 2.2 million tons in 1980, with a further 

 increase to 4.4 million tons in 2000. Average an- 

 nual rates of growth drop from 4.2 percent in the 

 1960's to 3.9 percent in the 1970's and 3.5 percent 

 in the 1990's. 



Total projected U.S. demand for woodpidp. — 

 Apparent consumption of woodpulp in the manu- 

 facture of both paper and board and nonpaper 

 products in the United States totaled 47.8 million 

 tons in 1972 (table 147 ; Append. V, table 24). The 

 medium projection of demand at 1970 prices 

 reaches 106.3 million tons by 2000— a 2.4-fold in- 

 crease over 1970. Annual rates of growth in wood- 

 pulp demand decline from an average of 5.5 per- 

 cent in the 1960's to 4.0 percent in the 1970's, and 

 2.4 percent in the 1990's. 



Exports of woodpulp. — In addition to domestic 

 demand, a significant export market for woodpulp 



