198 



THE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER IN THE UNITED STATES 



As indicated in Chapter IV, various studies point 

 to rapid and continuing increases in world demands 

 for pulp and paper and board, as well as for other 

 wood products. These studies also indicate that 

 available timber supplies of acceptable quality 

 may not be large enough to meet these expanding 

 demands. Although expanded markets for pulp ex- 

 ports from the United States can be expected, it 

 was assumed that pulp exports will level off at 3.5 

 million tons in view of the major rise in projected 

 U.S. demands for pulp, tightening timber supply 

 situation in the United States as described in 

 Chapter VI and prospective increases in fiber sup- 

 plies from other regions of the world. 



Imports of woodpulp. — In contrast to the recent 

 rise in pulp exports, the United States has long 

 imported substantial volumes of woodpulp (table 

 147; Append. V, table 24). Pulp imports ap- 

 proached 2 million tons in the 1920's — a level that 

 with some fluctuation was maintained through the 

 1950's. In the 1960's, however, pulp imports rose 

 fairly rapidly, and in the late 60's and early 70's 

 were ranging between 3.5 and 4.0 million tons a 

 year. In earlier years Scandinavia provided much 

 of the imports, but in 1971, 96 percent of the im- 

 ported pulp came from Canada (Append. V, table 

 26). 



In view of the higher costs that would presum- 

 ably be associated with the use of unexploited 

 timber resources in Canada (see discussion Chapter 

 IV), Canadian pulp producers probably would not 

 significantly increase shipments over recent vol- 

 umes unless prices rise above 1970 levels. Hence, 

 it was assumed that at 1970 relative prices imports 

 would remain about 4 million tons annually. 



With higher prices it seems likely that Canadian 

 producers would supply much larger quantities of 

 woodpulp. Accordingly, woodpulp imports have 

 been increased substantially under the higher price 

 assumptions as shown in the following tabulation 

 of medium projections of demand under alternative 

 price assumptions: 



Projections — 1970 relative -prices 



Demand on 

 Total demand Exports Imports U.S. mills 



Year {million tons) (million tons) (million tons) (million tons) 



1980 64.3 3.5 4.0 63.8 



1990 83.5 3.5 4.0 83.0 



2000 106.3 3.5 4.0 105.8 



Projections — relative prices rising 0.5 percent per year 



1980 61.9 3.5 6.0 59.4 



1990 78.9 3.5 7.5 74.9 



2000 99.8 3.5 8.5 94.8 



Projections — relative prices 10 percent above 1970 average 



1980 61.0 3.5 6.0 58.5 



1990 79.2 3.5 7.0 75.7 



2000 101.5 3.5 7.5 97.5 



Demand on U.S. mills for woodpulp. — When 

 projected pulp imports are subtracted from total 



domestic and export demands, an estimated 64 

 million tons (medium projection) of woodpulp 

 would be demanded from U.S. mills by 1980 at 

 1970 relative prices (table 147). A further rise to 

 106 million tons by 2000 is projected. 



Under the alternative higher prices demand on 

 U.S. mills would be somewhat lower because of 

 reductions in domestic demand and increased 

 imports. 



Annual rates of growth in demand drop under 

 all assumptions. For example, with the medium 

 projection of population and economic growth and 

 1970 relative prices, rates drop from 3.8 percent in 

 the 1970's to 2.5 percent in the 1990's. Part of the 

 decline after the mid-1970's reflects an anticipated 

 fall-off in use of new woodpulp per ton of paper and 

 board manufactured (fig. 73). 



Projected increases in domestic production 

 (medium projection) at 1970 relative prices indi- 

 cate it would be necessary to expand U.S. wood- 

 pulp production by about 2 million tons a year in 

 the 1970's. This would be close to the average in- 

 crease in the 1960's. Under the rising price as- 

 sumption the projected increase (medium projec- 

 tion) would average 1.6 million tons per year. 



Pulpwood Consumption and Demand 



Consumption of pulpwood in U.S. mills to pro- 

 duce the tonnage of pulp shown in table 147 in- 

 creased from about 6 million cords in 1920 to more 

 than 72 million cords in 1972 (table 148; Append. 

 V, table 27). 



Pulpwood used per ton of pulp. — Since 1920 

 average use of pulpwood per ton of pulp produced 

 has not changed significantly, averaging about 1.6 

 cords per ton (fig. 74; Append. V, table 28). 

 During this period some technological develop- 

 ments have tended to increase yields of pulp per 

 cord of wood consumed. These have included a 

 major shift from sulfite and soda processes to 

 higher yielding sulfate and semichemical processes. 

 There has also been a large relative increase in 

 use of hardwoods which yield more pulp per cord 

 than softwoods. Offsetting these trends, however, 

 has been an increase in proportions of semi- 

 bleached and bleached grades of woodpulp which 

 require more wood per ton than unbleached grades. 



It has been assumed that the net effect of 

 technological developments in the future, together 

 with further increases in use of hardwoods, will 

 cause a slight decline in consumption of pulpwood 

 per ton of pulp produced to an average of about 1.5 

 cords by 2000. 



Multiplying assumed wood requirements per 

 ton of pulp by projected domestic production of 

 woodpulp indicates a potential demand for pulp- 

 wood in U.S. mills (medium projection at 1970 

 relative prices) of about 98 million cords by 1980, 

 and 159 million cords by 2000 (table 148). 



Exports of pulpwood. — Prior to the late 1960's 

 pulpwood exports from the United States were 



