206 



THE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER IN THE UNITED STATES 



increases from the 1970 base for lumber are 

 shown in the tabulation below: 



Percent increase in lumber yields per thousand 

 board feet of logs, International ^4-inch log rule 



Relative price assumptions 



Softwoods Hardwoods 



1980 1990 WOO 1980 1990 tOOo 



1970 relative prices _ ' 7 10 12 2 3 4 



Rising relative prices ' 8 12 15 3 4 5 



Relative prices 30 percent 



above 1970 i 11 12 13 4 4 4 



1 Includes a 5 percent increase resulting from the change in lumber 

 standards in 1970. 



It was assumed that plywood yields would also 

 in crease by roughly the same amounts. 



As indicated in the above tabulation, higher 

 relative prices of timber products would be ex- 

 pected to accelerate improvements in utilization 

 because of competition for timber and increased 

 capability of manufacturers to finance new plant 

 and equipment. 



Pulp yields, as indicated in the section on pulp- 

 wood, have been projected to rise about 7 percent 

 over the 30-year projection period in response to 

 expected increases in the use of hardwoods and 

 technological developments. It was also estimated 

 that use of plant residues and wastepaper would 

 approach the limits imposed by the amounts of 

 such material economically and physically 

 available. 



With more rapid advances in development and 

 adoption of new technology, increases in product 

 yields from available timber could, of course, be 

 higher than estimated for these projections. 



Recent Trends in Roundwood Consumption 



In 1970 total U.S. consumption of timber 

 products in terms of roundwood volume was 12.7 

 billion cubic feet (table 150; Append. V, tables 

 30-32). 52 Roundwood consumption rose to 14.2 

 billion cubic feet in 1972, a peak in a trend that 

 has risen from around 11 billion cubic feet in the 

 early 1960's. Roundwood consumption in 1972 

 was also materially above the levels attained in 

 the early 1900's when lumber use was at an all- 

 time high and record volumes of fuelwood were 

 consumed. 



A little over half of the roundwood consumed in 

 1972 consisted of saw logs used for lumber. About 

 a third was used for pulp products. Eleven percent 

 was used for veneer and plywood. The remaining 

 7 percent was about equally divided between 

 miscellaneous industrial products and fuelwood. 



In the years from 1950 to 1972 there was a 16 

 percent rise in the volume of roundwood used for 



52 Roundwood is derived both from the "growing stock" 

 component of the forest (that is, live trees on commercial 

 timberlands above 5.0 inches in diameter meeting certain 

 standards of soundness and quality) and from other 

 sources such as cull and dead trees and trees on noncom- 

 mercial and nonforest lands. Projected supplies of round- 

 wood from these sources are shown in Chapters II and III. 



lumber. Use of roundwood nearly doubled for 

 pulp products, and quadrupled for veneer and 

 plywood. 



Use of roundwood for miscellaneous industrial 

 products and fuelwood declined during the 1950's 

 and most of the 1960's. It has been assumed, 

 however, that the decline in consumption of these 

 products has bottomed out. 



Projected demand for Roundwood 



Projected roundwood demands are materially 

 affected by the assumptions on population and 

 economic activity specified in the introductory 

 section of this chapter. The range in projected 

 total demand for roundwood in 2000, for example, 

 at 1970 prices is from 19.5 billion to 27.1 billion 

 cubic feet (fig. 77). 



The medium projection of demand reaches 16.4 

 billion cubic feet in 1980, with a continuing rise to 

 22.8 billion cubic feet in 2000 — some 1.6 times 

 consumption in 1972. Most of the projected 

 growth in demand is for pulp products, and pulp- 

 wood consequently accounts for nearly half of the 

 total demand for roundwood in 2000. 



Projected demands are also materially affected 

 by the alternative price assumptions specified 

 earlier. For example, the medium projections of 

 demand by 2000 ranges between 22.8 billion cubic 

 feet at 1970 price levels and 19.2 billion cubic feet 

 with rising relative prices (that is, 1.5 percent per 

 year for lumber; 1.0 percent for plywood, miscel- 

 laneous products and fuelwood; and 0.5 percent 

 for paper and board). Nearly all of the growth in 

 demand under the latter price assumption would 

 be for pulpwood. 



With lumber and plywood prices 30 percent 

 above the 1970 average, miscellaneous products 

 and fuelwood up 15 percent, and paper and board 

 prices 10 percent higher, the medium projection 

 of demand rises relatively slowly in the 1970's, 



Roundwood consumption 1950-72, with 

 projected demand under alternative 

 assumptions to 2000 



mB^BBBB 



197C 1980 



Figure 77 



1990 2000 



