DEMAND FOR TIMBER PRODUCTS 



211 



Table 153. — Summary of sawtimber consumption, exports, imports, and production from U.S. forests, 1952, 

 1962, and 1970, with projections {medium level l ) under alternative price assumptions to 2000 



[Billion board feet, International /4-inch log rule] 



Item 



1952 



1962 



1970 



Projections 



1970 relative 

 prices 



1980 1990 



2000 



Rising relative 

 prices 2 



1980 1990 2000 



Relative prices 

 above 1970 

 averages 3 



1980 1990 2000 



SOFTWOODS 



U.S. consumption 



Exports 



Imports 



Production form U.S. forests 4 ._ 



HARDWOODS 



U.S. consumption 



Exports 



Imports 



Production from U.S. forests 4 ._ 



ALL SPECIES 



U.S. consumption 



Exports 



Imports 



Production from U.S. forests 4 _. 



39. 9 



. 7 



2.4 



38. 2 



41.7 

 1.2 

 4. 6 



38. 3 



47. 6 

 4. 6 

 5.9 



46. 2 



58. 9 



5. 6 



6. 6 

 57. 9 



66. 5 



5. 6 



6. 5 

 65. 6 



72. 6 

 5. 6 

 6.4 



71. 8 



51. 5 

 5. 6 



8.9 

 48. 2 



54. 1 



5. 6 



10. 8 



48. 9 



55.0 



5.5 



11. 4 



49. 1 



48. 7 

 5.6 

 9.6 



44.7 



55. 8 



5. 6 



10. 8 



50. 6 



61. 9 



5. 6 



10. 8 



56. 7 



11. 6 

 . 2 

 . 3 



11. 5 



11.7 



. 2 



1.0 



10. 9 



12. 3 



. 2 



1. 3 



11. 2 



16. 3 



. 2 



2.0 



14. 5 



20. 3 



. 2 



2.0 



18. 5 



24. 3 



. 2 



2.0 



22. 5 



14. 5 



. 2 



2.0 



12. 7 



16. 7 



. 2 



2.3 



14 6 



19. 1 



. 2 



2. 7 



16. 6 



14.0 



. 2 



2. 4 



11. 8 



17.4 



. 2 



2.4 



15. 2 



21. 1 



. 2 



2.4 



18.9 



51. 6 



. 7 



2. 7 



49. 6 



53. 3 

 1. 4 

 5. 6 



49. 1 



59. 9 



4. 7 



7. 3 



57. 3 



75. 2 

 5.8 

 8.6 



72. 4 



86. 8 

 5.8 

 8. 5 



84. 1 



96. 9 

 5. 8 

 8.4 



94. 3 



66. 



5. 8 



10. 9 



60. 9 



70.8 



5. 8 



13. 1 



63. 5 



74 1 



5. 7 



14. 1 



65. 7 



62. 7 



5.8 



12.0 



56. 5 



73. 2 



5.8 



13. 2 



65.8 



83.0 



5.8 



13.2 



75. 6 



1 Based on the medium projections of growth in popula- 

 tion and economic activity shown in the introductory 

 section of this chapter. 



2 Relative prices rising from 1970 trend level as follows: 

 lumber — 1.5 percent per year; plywood, miscellaneous 

 products, and fuelwood — 1.0 percent per year; paper and 

 board — 0.5 percent per year. 



3 Relative prices of lumber and plywood — 30 percent, 

 miscellaneous products and fuelwood — 15 percent, and 

 paper and board — 10 percent, above the 1970 averages. 



4 The data for 1952, 1962, and 1970 are estimates of 

 actual harvests and are not directly comparable with the 

 trend level estimates of supply shown in Chapter II. 



Note: Data may not add to totals because of rounding. 



Sources: 1952-70 — Based on data published by the U.S. 

 Departments of Commerce and Agriculture. 



Projections: 

 Service. 



U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 



in imports of softwood lumber and hardwood 

 plywood. 



Projected net imports of timber products in- 

 crease moderately under the higher price assump- 

 tions. But net imports under all price assumptions 

 remain comparatively small in relation to total 

 U.S. demands for timber products. Thus, it seems 

 evident that the Nation must continue to depend 

 largely on domestic forests to supply future timber 

 markets. 



Projected Demand for Roundwood From U.S. Forests 



Production of softwood roundwood from U.S. 

 forests showed little change in the 1950's but a 

 fairly fast increase in the 1960's (table 152; 

 Append. V, tables 30-32) . Production of sawtimber 

 from U.S. forests followed similar trends (table 

 153; Append. V, tables 33-35). 



In contrast, production of hardwood — round- 

 wood and sawtimber— showed a slight downward 

 trend during both decades. 



Projected demand for timber from U.S. forests — 

 medium level and 1970 prices — rises from 11.7 

 billion cubic feet in 1970 to 21.9 billion cubic 

 feet by 2000 — a rise of 87 percent. Associated 

 demands for sawtimber rise from 57.3 to 94.3 

 billion board feet. Most of the projected increases 

 in demand is for softwoods. However, projected 

 demand for hardwoods rises sharply — roughly 

 doubling by 2000. 



As in the case of total demand, use of alternative 

 economic and price assumptions has substantial 

 impacts on projected demands for timber from 

 U.S. forests. With relative prices 30 percent above 

 the 1970 averages, for example, projected demands 

 on U.S. forests by 2000 reach 18.2 billion cubic 

 feet, including 75.6 billion board feet of sawtimber. 

 These volumes are 56 percent and 32 percent, 

 respectively, above 1970 production levels. 



Because of differences in the size of the assumed 

 price increases by product, and differences in the 

 sensitivity of demand for each product to rising 



07-045 O ■ 73 



