TIMBER DEMAND-SUPPLY RELATIONSHIPS 



215 



This chapter presents comparisons of (1) 

 projected demands for timber in the United 

 States under alternative price assumptions and 

 (2) projected timber supplies under alternative 

 prices and levels of forest management. Some 

 implications of these comparisons in terms of 

 possible price trends and impacts on the major 

 timber industries also are included. Finally, 

 mention is made of the kinds of forestry measures 

 that could increase or extend timber supplies, 

 and thus modify economic and environmental 

 impacts of inadequate supplies and rising prices 

 of timber products. 



Projections of demand and supplies developed 

 in preceding chapters are summarized in tables 

 155 and 156 and in figures 81, 82, 83, and 84. 



SOFTWOOD DEMAND-SUPPLY BALANCES 

 WITH 1970 LEVELS OF FOREST MANAGE- 

 MENT 



Demands on U.S. forests for softwood timber 

 products — after allowances for imports and ex- 

 ports — have been projected to increase from 

 8.8 billion cubic feet in 1970 to a range of 11.1 

 to 15.1 billion cubic feet by the year 2000 with 

 the specified price assumptions used in this 

 study and the medium level of population and 

 economic growth (table 155 and fig. 81). 



The base projection of softwood timber supplies 

 from U.S. forests rises from an estimated 8.8 

 billion cubic feet in 1970 to 11.5 billion cubic feet 

 by 2000, that is, to the lower part of the projected 

 range in demand. 



Comparisons of these supply and demand pro- 

 jections indicate that under the economic and 

 other conditions assumed in this analysis fairly 

 substantial increases in prices of timber products 

 relative to the general price level will be necessar}- 



Softwood roundwood - demand on U.S. 

 forests and domestic supply 



I - Demand or 1970 prices. 



II ■ Demand or 1970 trend level p. 

 1.5% per year for lumber, t.0^ 

 plywood, miscellaneous product, 

 and fuelwood, and 0.5% far 

 paper and board. 



HI - Demand ot 1970 prices plus 30% 

 lumber and plywood, 15% for 

 miscellaneous product* and fuel' 

 and 10% lor poper and board. 



to balance demands and available supplies of 

 timber. This is illustrated below for the softwood 

 saw timber component of the timber resource. 



SOFTWOOD SAWTIMBER SUPPLY-DEMAND 

 BALANCES WITH 1970 LEVELS OF MAN- 

 AGEMENT 



Projected demands on U.S. forests for softwood 

 sawtimber products — after allowances for imports 

 and exports — rise from actual consumption of 46.2 

 billion board feet in 1970 to a range of 49.1 to 

 71.8 billion board feet by 2000 under the specified 

 price assumptions used in this analysis (table 155 

 and fig. 82). 



The base projection of available supplies of 

 softwood sawtimber from U.S. forests, assuming 

 1970 management levels and other conditions 

 such as harvesting schedules specified in Chapter 

 II, show moderate increases to 54.2 billion board 

 feet by 2000. Economic projections of supply 

 related to alternative price levels for the most 

 part are below these base projections. 



These projections of economically available 

 supplies of softwood sawtimber by 1980 range 

 from 47 billion board feet annually at 1970 

 prices to about 53 billion board feet with prices of 

 softwood lumber and plywood 50 percent above 

 1970 levels. In 2000 these economic projections of 

 supply converge to nearly the same level. Dif- 

 ferences in the time paths of timber supplies 

 with alternative prices illustrate in part conse- 

 quences of a faster increase in harvesting in the 

 1970's than assumed in the base projections. 



Possible future price paths. — It is evident from 

 these comparisons of demands and supplies that a 

 significant rise in prices of softwood lumber and 

 plywood over 1970 levels will be necessary to 

 balance supply and demand in future decades 

 under the economic and management conditions 

 assumed in this analysis. 



Softwood sawtimber - demand on U.S. forests 

 and domestic supply 



I - Demand at 1970 prices. 



11 - Oemond o» 1970 Vend level prices pi 

 1,5% per year for lumber, 1,0% for 

 plywood, miicelloneous product* 

 ond fuelwood, and 0.5% for 

 paper ond board 



III - Dom 



d at 1970 prices plus 30% foi 

 ■ ond plywood, 15% for 

 aneous products and luelwoo 

 )% For paper and board. 



Figure 81 



1970 1980 



Figure 82 



