218 



THE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER IN THE UNITED STATES. 



Supplies could be lower than projected as a 

 result of various factors such as more diversion 

 of forest lands to other uses than assumed, more 

 constraints on timber management because of 

 environmental factors, nontimber objectives of 

 forest owners, or extraordinary mortality losses. 

 Different supply responses to price changes than 

 assumed in the economic supply projections also 

 could result in higher or lower supply trends than 

 shown by these projections. Intensification of 

 forest management, or faster improvement in 

 utilization in woods and mills than assumed, could 

 add to these projections of supply. 



SOFTWOOD SAWTIMBER SUPPLIES WITH IN- 

 TENSIFIED MANAGEMENT AND UTILIZA- 

 TION 



An analysis of investment opportunities in 

 reforestation, stand improvement, thinning, and 

 other timber management practices, presented in 

 Chapter III, illustrates numerous opportunities 

 for increasing domestic timber supplies. 



An example of investment opportunities on 

 National Forests and farm and miscellaneous 

 private ownerships judged to be capable of return- 

 ing at least 5 percent on additional investments 

 indicated that intensification of management could 

 provide increases in supplies of softwood saw- 

 timber of 1.6 billion board feet in 1980, 4.7 billion 

 board feet in 2000, and 13 billion board feet in 

 2020 (table 155). Such a program of intensification 

 assumed softwood lumber and plywood prices 

 averaging 30 percent above 1970 and an estimated 

 cost of $69 million annually (at 1971 prices). 



Some increases in timber supply from closer 

 utilization, thinnings, and salvage could be 

 achieved promptly. The allowable cut effect also 

 would permit other early increases in harvesting 

 following intensification of management on many 

 public lands. Much of the increase in supply from 

 intensified management, however, would become 

 available only after 2000. 



Biological limits of timber growth and potential 

 harvests are estimated to be much in excess of 

 these initial projections of intensification op- 

 portunities. More of the growth potential of the 

 Nation's forests could be captured with similar 

 intensification of forestry practices on industrial 

 and other public lands, and with measures such 

 as fertilization that were not included in the 

 analysis in Chapter III. Use of investment criteria 

 other than a minimum rate of return of 5 percent 

 as used in this studj'" could also permit intensifi- 

 cation on more of the Nation's timberlands. 



Timber supplies could be extended by improved 

 technology, including adoption of processing 

 equipment and methods that would increase 

 recovery of usable products from available sup- 

 plies of round wood beyond amounts projected in 

 this analysis. 



If timber supplies were increased by such added 

 investments in timber management and utiliza- 

 tion, prospective rises in equilibrium prices of 

 timber products could be significantly moderated, 

 particularly after the turn of the century. 



HARDWOOD DEMAND-SUPPLY BALANCES 

 WITH 1970 LEVELS OF FOREST MANAGE- 

 MENT 



Demands on U.S. forests for hardwood timber 

 products — after allowances for imports and ex- 

 ports — have been estimated to rise from about 

 2.9 billion cubic feet in 1970 to a range of 5.3 to 6.8 

 billion cubic feet by 2000 under the alternative 

 price assumptions and the medium level of popu- 

 lation and economic growth used in this analysis 

 (table 156 and fig. 83). 



Potentially available supplies of hardwood tim- 

 ber from U.S. forests, as indicated by the base 

 projections developed in Chapter II, increase from 

 2.9 billion cubic feet in 1970 to about 7.4 billion 

 cubic feet by 2000. Thus, total supplies of hard- 

 wood potentially available in terms of cubic feet 

 exceed projected demands throughout the 1970- 

 2000 period. While this implies that increases in 

 relative prices are not likely, wide differences in 

 timber quality and availability indicate a variable 

 outlook for supply-price relationships. 



HARDWOOD SAWTIMBER SUPPLY-DEMAND 

 BALANCES WITH 1970 LEVELS OF FOREST 

 MANAGEMENT 



In the case of hardwood sawtimber, projected 

 demands on U.S. forests — after allowances for im- 

 ports and exports — rise from 11.2 billion board 

 feet in 1970 to a range of 16.6 to 22.5 billion board 



Hardwood roundwood - demand on U.S. 

 forests and domestic supply 



1 . Demand at 1970 prices. 



.1 1970 trend level pricet 

 1.5% per year rot lumber, 1.0% for 



pi.vc^o. mlfCflUani 



and fuolwood, and 0.5% for 

 paper and board. 

 Hi - Demand at 1970 



lumber and plywood, 15% far 

 miscellaneous p-rcduttj and fuelwood, 

 and 10% far paper and board. 





 1950 



industrial roundwood 



I960 1970 1980 



Figure 83 



