TIMBER DEMAND-SUPPLY RELATIONSHIPS 



219 



Hardwood sawtimber - demand on U.S. forests 

 and domestic supply 



I . Demand at 1°70 price*. 



II - Demand at 1970 trend teve 



plui 7.5% per year tor lumber, 1 

 for plywood. mi»collaoeou> ptod< 

 ond fuelwood, ond 0.5% lor po| 

 and board. 



Figure 84 



feet in 2000, depending on the price assumption 

 specified (table 156 and fig. 84). 



Potentially available supplies of hardwood saw- 

 timber products, as indicated by the base projec- 

 tion, rise from 11.2 billion board feet in 1970 to 

 20.6 billion board feet by 2000. These projections 

 of supply also exceed projected demands, except 

 in the case of the 1970 price assumption after 1980. 



In general these projections for hardwood saw- 

 timber show a more favorable supply and price 

 outlook than for softwoods. However, it is quite 

 possible as in the case of softwoods that not all 

 of the potentially available supplies indicated by 

 the base projection will in fact be actually avail- 

 able, particularly at 1970 price levels. Recent in- 

 creases in relative prices of hardwood lumber, and 

 sharp increases in prices for certain preferred 

 species and higher grades of hardwood timber, 

 indicate that statistics on total inventories, net 

 growth, and available removals overstate volumes 

 economically accessible and available for sale by 

 the large numbers of private owners who own 

 most hardwood timber resources. 



Hardwood timber inventories and growth are 

 far from homogeneous and statistics on supply and 

 consumption do not include the same mix of 

 species and sizes of timber. Much of the growth 

 and available supply of hardwoods is in small 

 trees and in large numbers of species for which 

 markets are limited. A major part of the harvest, 

 on the other hand, is concentrated on larger sizes 

 of preferred species such as white oak, sweetgum, 

 yellow birch, hard maple, walnut, and black 

 cherry. Removals of such higher grade material 

 and species have been close to or above annual 

 growth. 



It seems likely therefore, that relative prices of 

 hardwood timber products may also continue to 

 rise, particularly for the preferred species and 



larger sizes. For some time to come, however, 

 hardwood price increases could be restrained by 

 increased imports of tropical hardwood products, 

 as indicated in Chapter IV. 



HARDWOOD SUPPLY-DEMAND VOLUMES 

 WITH INTENSIFIED MANAGEMENT 



Supplies of hardwoods from domestic forests 

 could be augmented in time by intensified forest 

 management. As indicated by the case studies 

 cited in Chapter III, hardwood supplies could be 

 significantly increased in terms of value, and to 

 lesser extent in terms of volume, by such practices 

 as cleaning and precommercial thinning of young 

 stands to improve species composition and spacing. 

 Commercial thinning of older stands would con- 

 centrate growth on the more desirable trees. In 

 many cases protection against animals such as 

 deer also is necessary to assure desirable stand 

 composition. Because of the large variety of spe- 

 cies present in many hardwood stands, such meas- 

 ures are essential to capture value potentials. 



IMPLICATIONS FOR TIMBER INDUSTRIES 



The increases in timber prices and the supply 

 problems that appear to be in prospect can be 

 expected to have significant impacts on softwood 

 lumber and plywood industries. Prospective limi- 

 tations on timber supplies and increases in prices 

 will limit expansion potentials for these products 

 in housing and other markets, and necessitate 

 greater dependence on competitive materials for 

 many uses. 



Producers of high-quality hardwood lumber 

 and hardwood plywood face a similar situation of 

 limited and higher cost wood supplies. The out- 

 look is better, however, for producers of hardwood 

 construction timber, pallet lumber, railroad ties, 

 and other products that can be manufactured 

 from the lower quality hardwoods that are in 

 relatively abundant supply. 



The outlook for the pulp and paper industry is 

 relatively favorable to the extent that this in- 

 dustry can use small and low-quality material, 

 hardwoods, plant and logging residues, and re- 

 cycled fibers as well as round softwood pulpwood. 

 Nevertheless, price increases for timber used by 

 the lumber and plywood industries can be expected 

 to have direct impacts on pulpwood prices. All the 

 forest industries compete to some extent for the 

 same sizes and species of timber, and price rises 

 for larger and higher quality trees can be expected 

 to extend to some extent to the entire timber 

 resource. The pulp and paper industry as well as 

 other timber users thus has a major interest in 

 intensifying forest management and improving 

 utilization to meet potential timber demands. 



Higher prices for timber and timber products 

 will of course improve the profitability of forest 



