130 



FORESTRY INVESTIGATIONS U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE. 



CONSUMPTION AND SUPPLIES OF CONIFEROUS WOODS. 



Ever since the publication of the statistics of the Tenth Census regarding the white pine 

 timber standing — nearly fifteen years—there has been a contention as to their correctness. Time 

 has proven their extreme inaccuracy, for, while then only eight years' supply was supposed to be 

 standing when the annual cut was 10,000,000,000 feet, we have, with an increased cut, lumbered 

 white pine for sixteen years and still there is a considerable quantity left. 



Yet at last the end is visible, and even the most sanguine can not longer hide the truth that 

 within the next decade we shall witness the practical exhaustion of this greatest staple of our 

 lumber market. 



As stated before, even now there are really no statistics upon which to base a correct prog- 

 nostication as to the date of this exhaustion. Estimates only are available, and estimates of 

 standing timber are proverbially unreliable, mostly underestimates, and always to be taken with 

 caution. Furthermore, if an estimate of the duration of supplies of a special kind is to be made, 

 it is necessary not only to know the supplies and the present cut, but also to foresee the changes 

 in the cut, the replacement in the market by other kinds, and the economies that may be prac- 

 ticed in the methods of logging ; as, for instance, by the reduction in the size acceptable for saw 

 logs, by cutting smaller trees, by the use of band saws, and by closer utilization generally, whereby 

 the duration of supplies can be lengthened. 



Thus, while the estimates of the Tenth Census were based on a minimum log of, say, 10 or 

 even 12 inches diameter, in the present practice 8-inch and even 5-inch logs are used; while in 

 1880 hemlock went begging and whitewood had not yet been found to answer as a good substitute 

 for white pine, and Southern pine had not yet begun to compete, the interchangeableness of all 

 these species in the market now renders the forecast still more complicated. 



Nevertheless, it has become apparent that while white pine will be cut in the United States 

 for many decades, as owners of the stumpage control their holdings, the enormous amounts which 

 have hitherto been cut annually can not be had beyond the next lave or six years, even with 

 Canada to help in eking out our deficiencies. 



CONSUMPTION. 



From the statistics of the cut since 1873, compiled by the Northwestern Lumberman, it 

 appears that since that year the stupendous amount of 154,000,000,000 feet, B. M., and 83,000,000,000 

 shingles, or altogether in round numbers 105,000,000,000 feet of white pine has been cut in the 

 States of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota; and this total may be readily increased, by 

 allowing for cuts in other parts of the country, to over 200,000,000,000 feet, B. M., which this 

 single species has yielded to build up our civilization in the last twenty-three years, or in the 

 last ten years at the rate of eight to nine billion feet, an amount to produce which continuously 

 at least 30,000,000 acres of well-stocked and well-kept pine foiest would be required. 



Divided for convenience and comparison into six year periods, the cut in the Northwest 

 appears to have been as follows, according to the source cited : 



White pnu sawed by mills of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Mmnebota. 

 fin billion ftet, B M. loimd numbeis J 





187 i 1878 



1879-1884 



1885-1890. 



1891-3 89G. 



44 

 2 



46 



Lnmbei 



Shingles (1 000=100 feet, B M ) 



23 

 2 



40 

 3 



48 



a 



25 



43 



51 



A total of lb% 000, 000 feet, B M 



From 1873, when the cut was about 4,000,000,000 feet, the draft on this resource was con- 

 stantly increased until 1892, when it reached its maximum, nearly 9,000,000,000 feet, B. M., and 

 4,500,000,000 shingles. Then a gradual decline began to 7,600,000,000 feet in 1893, 6,750,000,000 

 feet in 1894, rising once more to over 7,000,000,000 in 1893, and reaching the lowest output in 1896, 

 with 5,500,000,000 feet; shingle production declining similarly to 1,500,000,000, which, translated 



