Exports and prices 



Some of the characteristics of export prices of flue-cured tobacco exported by the 

 Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland, 1950-1962, are: 



(a) Prices of tobacco exported to the United Kingdom from 1950 through 1961 were 

 generally upward, an increase of about 31 percent for the period. The quantity exported 

 to the United Kingdom increased over 58 percent between 1955 and 1961. 



(b) Average prices of tobacco exported to Australia have been on a downward trend 

 since 1952, They have decreased approximately 27 percent. Quantities exported to Aus- 

 tralia have decreased since 1960, because of the "mixing regulation" and because of 

 increases in Australian tobacco production. 



(c) The trend of the average export price to "other markets" has been slightly 

 downward. This is probably caused partly by the increased quantities shipped to the 

 United Kingdom at increasing prices, enabling Federation exporters to price the remain- 

 ing portion of their tobacco at attractive prices to "Other" countries. 



(d) The average prices of exports to all countries has increased approximately 

 9 percent. This increase can be explained by larger exports to the United Kingdom at 

 increased prices. The higher prices paid Rhodesia (higher than connparable quality 

 non- Commonwealth tobacco might receive) by the United Kingdom manufacturers can 

 be attributed in large part to the "Comnnonwealth preference" of 21.6^ per pound. (The 

 preference is not granted on tobacco fronn non-Commonwealth producing countries.) 

 Rhodesian tobacco receives a duty preference also in Australia, Hong Kong, and Aden. 

 The effect of this preference tends to help the overall average price of exports. 



Prospects 



A larger harvest of Rhodesian flue-cured is planned for 1964. Some of the leaders 

 recommend a 5 percent per year increase. The 1963 harvest was much less than their goal, 

 the 1 964 crop may be in the neighborhood of 260 million to 280 million pounds, which seems 

 large when compared with the 1963 crop. The 1963 harvest of 182 million was much below 

 what was anticipated. The acreage for harvest in 1964 is currently estimated at 270,000 

 acres, 10 percent above 1963. 



There is considerable land in Southern Rhodesia for much greater production of 

 flue-cured; in addition, the present groups of growers (about 3,000) have the necessary 

 land, equipment, and "know-how". If these large-scale growers are afforded conditions 

 for expansion, they will undoubtedly take advantage of the opportunity. 



There are several causes of uncertainty, any one of thenn could adversely affect the 

 expansion of Rhodesian flue-cured. The factors which appear most formidable are: 



Increase in production costs, with the major pinch coming from rises in labor cost. 



Possible decreases or elinnination of the "Commonwealth preference". 



Table 7. --SOUTHERN RHODESIA, NORTHERN RHODESIA, AND NYASALAND: Exports of flue-cured 

 tobacco just before formation of the Federation, 1950-54 



Year 



Southern Rhodesia 



Northern Rhodesia 



Nyasaland 



Total 



1950 



1951 



1952 



1953 



1954 



Mil. lb. 



88.1 

 67.0 

 87.9 

 80.5 

 100.0 



Mil. lb. 



6.3 

 10.5 



9.0 

 10.5 



5.0 



Mil. lb. 



2.1 

 2.7 

 2.6 

 2.3 

 2.6 



Mil. lb. 



96.5 

 80.2 

 99.5 

 93.3 



107.6 



11 



