88 



,THE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER IN THE UNITED STATED 



Table 78. — Inventory of sawtimber per acre in the Pacific Coast Section, by owner class and species group, 



1952, 1962, and 1970, with projections to 2020 



[Board feet] 



Owner class and species group 



1952 



1962 



1970 



Projections 





1980 



1990 



2000 



2020 



National Forests: 



Softwoods _____ ___________ 



24, 510 

 248 



23, 892 

 274 



23, 044 

 289 



21, 405 

 314 



19, 887 

 331 



18, 489 

 346 



16, 282 

 366 



Hardwoods. _ _ _ 







Total ----- . _____ 



24, 758 



24, 166 



23, 333 



21,719 



20, 218 



18, 835 



16, 648 





Other public: 



Softwoods _ - _ 



17, 381 

 403 



18, 116 

 606 



17, 578 

 804 



16, 842 

 1, 131 



16, 106 

 1,354 



15, 398 

 1,499 



14, 070 



Hardwoods. - ____ - -- 



1,657 







Total . .-. __. 



17, 784 



18, 722 



18, 382 



17, 973 



17, 460 



16, 897 



15, 727 







Forest industry: 



Softwoods. - - _--_ 



25, 433 

 636 



19, 270 

 812 



15, 870 

 973 



11, 674 

 1, 194 



9,994 

 1,325 



9,207 

 1,388 



8, 160 



Hardwoods. - 



1,400 







Total 



26, 069 



20, 082 



16, 843 



12, 868 



11, 319 



10, 595 



9, 560 







Farm and miscellaneous private: 



Softwoods. _ 



9,077 

 744 



8, 108 

 953 



8,350 

 1, 184 



8,907 

 1,538 



9, 136 

 1,780 



9,339 

 1,920 



9,745 



Hardwoods. ___ __ ______ .- 



2, 052 







Total ----- 



9,821 



9,061 



9,534 



10, 445 



10, 916 



11, 259 



11,797 







All owners: 



Softwoods . . . . . . . 



19, 842 

 455 



18, 597 

 572 



17, 661 

 686 



16, 297 



846 



15, 260 

 955 



14, 418 

 1,020 



13, 094 



Hardwoods . .. _. 



1,080 







Total .. . . 



20, 297 



19, 169 



18, 347 



17, 143 



16, 215 



15, 438 



14, 174 







This section presents some estimates of supply- 

 price relationships for softwood sawtimber, which 

 represents a major and critical part of the total 

 timber situation. No estimates of the economic 

 availability of all softwood material or of hard- 

 woods are available at this time. However, 

 comparisons of the base projections with the 

 following economic projections for softwood saw- 

 timber may cast some light on possible trends 

 in the economic availability of other material. 



Recent Supply-Price Relationships for Timber Products 



During 1971 and 1972 the reported index of 

 wholesale prices of softwood lumber relative to 

 the general price level increased about 40 percent, 

 and for softwood plywood about 25 percent. Be- 

 cause of changes in the pattern of prices of different 

 grades and sizes of these products associated with 

 price control programs, however, the industry 

 average of all sales appears to have risen some- 

 what more than these reported indexes. Reported 

 prices of pulp and paper products showed little or 

 no change in this short period. 



Total harvests of softwood sawtimber from 

 the U.S. forests for lumber, plywood, and other 

 products rose some 4.6 billion board feet between 



1970 and 1972, or a 10 percent increase (table 

 79). This included a 12 percent increase in domes- 

 tic production of softwood lumber, a 29 percent 

 increase in production of softwood plywood, and 

 some decline in estimated production of pulp- 

 wood from sawtimber resources. Imports of 

 softwood lumber increased 55 percent in this 

 period in response to price increases that were 

 reportedly greater than those prevailing under 

 U.S. price controls. 



The short-run elasticity of supply of domestic 

 softwood sawtimber products in the 1970-72 

 period — denned here as the ratio between the 

 percentage increase in total supplies of softwood 

 sawtimber products and the percentage increase 

 in weighted average U.S. wholesale prices of 

 softwood lumber and plywood — was apparently 

 between 0.2 and 0.3. This was not greatly different 

 from apparent short-run supply responses to 

 price changes for softwood sawtimber products 

 during cyclical changes in most years of the 

 1950's and 1960's. 



Longer run relationships between prices and 

 supplies of timber products, however, have been 

 quite different from short-run relationships in 

 these recent decades. Factors such as the rise in 



