PROJECTED TIMBER SUPPLIES— 1 9 70 LEVEL OF MANAGEMENT 



Table 79.— Softwood saxotimber supplies at alternative price levels for lumber and plywood 



[Billion board feet] 



Item 



Relative price index, softwood lumber and plywood. 



West — National Forests ' 



At 1970 prices 



At 1970 prices plus 30 percent 



At 1970 prices plus 50 percent 



Base projection 



West — Other owners 



At 1970 prices 



At 1970 prices plus 30 percent 



At 1970 prices plus 50 percent 



Base projection 



West — All owners 



At 1970 prices 



At 1970 prices plus 30 percent 



At 1970 prices plus 50 percent 



Base projection 



East — National Forests 



At 1970 prices 



At 1970 prices plus 30 percent 



At 1970 prices plus 50 percent 



Base projection 



East — Other owners 



At 1970 prices 



At 1970 prices plus 30 percent 



At 1970 prices plus 50 percent 



Base projection 



East — All owners 



At 1970 prices 



At 1970 prices plus 30 percent 



At 1970 prices plus 50 percent 



Base projection 



U.S. total — National Forests 



At 1970 prices 



At 1970 prices plus 30 percent 



At 1970 prices plus 50 percent 



Base projection 



U.S. total — Other owners 



At 1970 prices 



At 1970 prices plus 30 percent 



At 1970 prices plus 50 percent 



Base projection 



U.S. total — All owners 



At 19 70 prices 



At 19 70 prices plus 30 percent 



At 19 70 prices plus 50 percent 



Base projection. 



Actual 



1970 



100 

 9.9 



12. 

 20. 



18.5 

 30. 5 



30. 5 

 0.5 



1971 



118 

 10. 2 



21. 



31.2 



1972 



135 

 11.9 



21. 1 



33.0 



0. 5 



0.6 

 15.2 



15.9 

 15.7 



16. 5 

 10. 2 



12. 5 

 36. 



34. 4 

 46. 2 



46. 9 



15. 7 



16. 2 



10. 7 



36.7 



47. 4 



0.6 



17. 2 



17.8 



12. 5 



38.3 



50.8 



1980 



10.3 

 11. 1 

 12.0 

 13.0 



17." 5" 

 19. 

 19.8 

 15.8 



27." 8 

 30. 1 

 31.8 

 28.8 



"6." 8 

 1. 1 

 1. 2 

 1.2 



18. 2 



19. 6 



20. 4 

 18.8 



19. 



20. 7 



21. 6 

 20. 



11. 1 



12. 2 



13. 2 



14. 2 



35. 7 

 38. 6 

 40. 2 

 34.6 



46. 8 

 50.8 

 53.4 

 48.8 



Projections 



1990 



10.2 

 11.0 

 12. 

 12. 8 



15." 6" 



15. 7 



16. 5 

 14. 2 



"25."2" 

 26. 7 

 28.5 

 27.0 



1.4 

 1.6 

 1.8 

 1.9 



20.8 

 21. 7 



21. 9 



22. 



22. 2 



23. 3 

 23. 7 

 23.9 



10. 

 10.9 

 11.8 

 12.5 



12." 5" 

 12. 

 11.0 

 14.0 



22." 5" 

 22. 9 

 22.8 

 26.6 



"~2."2 

 2.4 

 2. 5 

 2. 7 



22. 3 

 23.3 

 23.0 

 25. 



11.6 



12. 6 



13. 8 

 14.7 



35.8 

 37.4 

 38.4 

 36.2 



47.4 

 50. 

 52. 2 

 50.9 



24.5 

 25. 7 

 25. 5 

 27.6 



12. 2 

 13.3 

 14.3 

 15. 2 



34. 8 



35. 3 

 34. 

 39.0 



89 



2000 2020 



12. 1 



14.0 



26. 2 



2.7 



25. 1 



27. 7 



14.8 



47. 



48. 6 

 48. 3 

 54. 2 



39. 1 



53.9 



■ Projections assume 1970 proportions of operator-financed and federally financed roads as well as other practices 



17fl W'ol = 



at 1970 levels. 



relative prices of lumber and stumpage prior to 

 1950, for example, made it economically feasible 

 to develop the timber resources in previously un- 

 developed areas in National Forests in the West 

 and in British Columbia. This was also a period 

 when recovery of forests in the South permitted 

 increased timber harvesting, and when new tech- 

 nology broadened the raw material base and led to 

 more efficient and expanded production in the 

 plywood and lumber industries. 



As a result of these developments more supplies 

 of timber products became available at a given 



price level. This shift in supply-price relationships 

 for softwood sawtimber was equivalent to an ap- 

 parent long-run supply function of much greater 

 elasticity than for short periods. . 



It is anticipated that timber supply-price rela- 

 tionships will continue to shift from decade to 

 decade in the future as a result of prospective 

 changes in timber resource conditions. Some antic- 

 ipated changes represent a reversal ot past 

 trends, as in the Pacific Coast States where a 

 continued shrinkage of timber harvests on indus- 

 trial ownerships must be expected, particularly 



