92 



iTHE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER IN THE UNITED STATES 



trend in timber inventories and growth on these 

 landsi resulting from past and current forestry 

 programs, this procedure resulted in a projected 

 increase of 47 percent in harvests of eastern 

 softwood sawtimber between 1970 and 2000 (fig. 

 42). 



With higher prices it was estimated, as in the 

 West, that rates of harvesting would be further 

 increased. A coefficient of supply-price elasticity 

 of 0.5 was assumed in estimating initial responses 

 to price increases for softwood lumber and 

 plywood averaging 30 percent and 50 percent 

 above 1970 levels. This meant an increase of 15 and 

 25 percent respectively in percentages of softwood 

 sawtimber inventories harvested. These higher 

 cutting rates were then used in the projection 

 system to estimate annual changes in future 

 harvests, net growth, and inventories. 



Use of this procedure resulted in a significant in- 

 crease in harvests of softwood sawtimber products 

 above output estimated with 1970 prices through- 

 out the period from the 1970's to the year 2000. 

 These higher projections also are somewhat above 

 the base projection for the 1970-1990 period. 



Total supplies from other ownerships. — Under the 

 assumption of 1970 prices and level of forest man- 

 agement, it is estimated that supplies of softwood 

 sawtimber products from other ownerships in the 

 United States would drop slightly from the actual 

 harvest of 36.0 billion board feet in 1970 (table 79 

 and fig. 43) . With price increases of 50 percent over 

 1970, on the other hand, supplies in the year 1980 

 might be roughly 5 billion board feet greater than 

 could be expected at 1970 prices. By the year 

 2000, however, all projections for these ownerships 

 show somewhat less timber available than was 

 harvested in 1970. 



Projected Supplies From All Ownerships 



Projections of economically available supplies 

 of softwood sawtimber products from all owner- 

 ships in the United States, at 1970 prices and 

 management level, remain fairly close to the 1970 

 harvest of 46.5 billion board feet. (fig. 43). Pro- 

 jected decreases in supplies in the West just about 

 offset increases in the East. 



With an assumed increase of 50 percent in soft- 

 wood lumber and plywood prices over 1970 levels, 

 projected harvests in 1980 total about 53 billion 

 board feet, but then gradually drop to less than 

 50 billion board feet by 2000, and to somewhat 

 lower levels thereafter. Projections assuming a 

 30 percent rise in prices are intermediate between 

 these two projections. 



These price-related projections indicate that 

 with increased prices roundwood supplies could 

 exceed the base projections of timber supply 

 developed earlier in this chapter at least for the 

 next couple of decades. It is readily apparent, 

 however, that with no increases over 1970 levels 

 of management, accelerated timber harvesting 

 would, in time, result in a reduction in both the 

 quantity and quality of available roundwood 

 supplies below 1970 levels of output. 



It must be recognized that these estimates 

 necessarily involve a large measure of judgment. 

 The time paths of future harvests appear consist- 

 ent with supply-price relationships in recent dec- 

 ades but could be quite different with major 

 changes in prices, a tighter timber supply situation, 

 or other factors. All the projections developed, 

 however, indicate that if forest management and 

 forestry investments are maintained at 1970 levels 

 prospects for increased supplies of softwood saw- 

 timber products are limited. 



Available supplies of softwood sawtimber in the 

 past have been used for both solid wood products 

 such as lumber and plywood and for woodpulp. 

 With higher timber prices there may be increased 

 incentives to reallocate logs used for pulp to saw- 

 mills and plywood plants, with a shift of pulpwood 

 procurement to residues and small or low-quality 

 timber. Whether this occurs depends on numerous 

 factors affecting competition for wood in many 

 local areas. 



In addition to increased timber harvesting and 

 closer utilization of available supplies expected 

 with rising prices of timber products and stumpage, 

 it seems likely that many industrial and some 

 other forest owners would intensify timber 

 management programs above 1970 levels. 



The biological potential for future timber 

 growth and harvests is considerably greater than 

 the projections of potential supplies that could be 

 anticipated with 1970 levels of management on 

 National Forests and other ownerships. More of 

 this potential could be captured by intensified 

 management and utilization. 



Some intensified management and utilization 

 practices could have early impacts on timber 

 supplies, particularly in areas with old-growth 

 timber. Because of the time required to grow 

 merchantable sizes of trees, however, such poten- 

 tial increases in timber supplies — though of major 

 importance in the long run — would largely be 

 realized beyond the projection period used in this 

 analysis. Some information on possible opportuni- 

 ties for such intensification of forest management 

 is presented in the following chapter. 



