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/THE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER IN THE UNITED STATES 



In this chapter estimates are presented of 

 potential increases in timber supplies, over and 

 above projected supplies with 1970 management 

 levels as described in Chapter II, that might be 

 achieved in coming decades by an acceleration of 

 certain cultural measures and by closer timber 

 utilization. The amount of such increases economi- 

 cally attainable will depend to a large degree on 

 trends in timber prices, hence some price alterna- 

 tives were considered in this analysis. 



The following material includes a general in- 

 dication of opportunities for intensified manage- 

 ment of the Nation's forests. This is followed by a 

 summary of an initial study of opportunities for 

 intensified forestry on National Forests and farm 

 and miscellaneous ownerships throughout the 

 United States. More detailed case studies are 

 then presented for the Southeast, Northeast, 

 North Central, and Pacific Northwest regions to 

 illustrate procedures for analysis and preliminary 

 findings of intensification opportunities. 



It is not possible with the data available at 

 this time to estimate with a high degree of accuracy 

 how much future timber growth and harvests 

 might be increased as a result of higher levels of 

 investment in forestry practices, nor related 

 impacts on nontimber costs and benefits. The 

 increases in timber supplies resulting from in- 

 tensified management as described in this chapter 

 are believed to be reasonable approximations, 

 but much additional study will be necessary for 

 more complete evaluations of potentials. 



GENERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR MANAGE- 

 MENT INTENSIFICATION 



With 1970 levels of forest management and re- 

 lated harvesting and area assumptions, available 

 supplies of timber from U.S. forests were projected 

 to increase moderately over the next few decades. 

 These projections, shown in Chapter II, are con- 

 siderably below yields attained in fully stocked 

 natural stands, and much less than yields attain- 

 able with intensive practices. 



Both technical opportunities for increasing 

 yields and economic returns from investments in 

 intensified management vary widely from stand 

 to stand and from place to place depending on a 

 variety of factors. The examples of intensification 

 opportunities described in later sections of this 

 chapter indicate some of the variations in quan- 

 tity, quality, and value of increased growth and 

 harvests that might be obtained from selected 

 treatments. 



Differences in treatment opportunities stem in 

 part from site and stand conditions. Thus the 

 timber-growing capacity of commercial timber- 

 lands ranges from as little as 20 cubic feet per acre 

 per year on the poorest sites included in the "com- 

 mercial timberland" category to highly productive 

 areas — mainly on the West Coast — that have the 

 capability of producing more than 200 cubic feet 

 of timber annually. 



Stocking, species composition, tree diameter 

 distribution, and regeneration requirements also 

 vary widely in different stands and directly affect 

 management opportunities. Additional factors of 

 accessibility and operability of forest areas and 

 nature of available markets also influence the 

 economic feasibility of intensified management. 



In many cases the necessity of modifying timber 

 management to enhance environmental protection 

 and to maintain recreation, wildlife, and aesthetic 

 values increases management costs or reduces 

 amounts of timber growth available for harvest. 

 Areas such as roadside zones and scenic areas on 

 the National Forests, for example, may provide 

 some timber but only incidental to management 

 for other uses. 



Increased timber production on areas suitable 

 for treatment, supplementing harvests prospec- 

 tively available with 1970 management, can be 

 achieved by a variety of measures, including 

 accelerated regeneration, stand conversion, stand 

 improvement, commercial thinning, fertilization, 

 water control, improved harvesting practices, and 

 intensified protection. 



Regeneration. — Much has been done to improve 

 regeneration following logging, both by modifying 

 harvesting practices to obtain natural regeneration 

 and by establishment of planted stands through 

 site preparation and planting, or seeding. Es- 

 tablishment of plantations on abandoned farm- 

 land or other open areas has also been of large 

 importance in the South and elsewhere. As pointed 

 out in Chapter II, planting at the "1970 level" of 

 management covered about 1.5 million acres 

 annually. 



Large additional gains in timber supplies can 

 be achieved both by expansion of planting efforts 

 and by greater use of genetically improved plant- 

 ing stock. Considerable progress has been made 

 already in use of improved stock, particularly 

 in the South where an estimated quarter of the 

 planting stock seed used by the timber industry 

 in 1970 came from selected superior trees. 



About 15 percent of the 700 million seedlings 

 produced by State and Federal nurseries in recent 

 years has been grown with seeds derived from 

 superior trees. Programs underway will steadily 

 expand this proportion in the years ahead. Re- 

 duction of the regeneration period after logging 

 also is of large importance, particularly in a 

 number of western forest types. 



