102 



THE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER IN THE UNITED STATES 



Table 82. — Sawtimber stumpage prices on National Forests, by region, 1970-71 



[Dollars per MBM, Scribner scale] 



Species 



Northern 



Rocky 

 Mountain 



Southern 



Rocky 

 Mountain 



California 



Pacific 

 Northwest 



South 



North 



Doulas-fir _. - - 



5-12 

 12-17 



8. 50 

 7-9. 50 



21 



15 



2-8 

 5-20 



3 

 3-7 



i 20 



i 24 



3 



14 



i 27 



1 14 



5 



14 

 14 







Ponderosa pine - 







Lodgepole pine_. __ ___ 







Fir-spruce _ _- - 







Larch- western white pine 







Mixed conifers 2 _ _ 











Southern pine 









52 

 30 



18 



Red pine-white pine 











25 















1 Reduced to 65 percent of reported rate based on 

 R-6 study comparing current old-growth and second- 

 growth timber prices. 



National Forest lands were based upon 1970-71 

 stumpage prices, as shown in table 82. These 

 ranged from negligible values for some hardwoods 

 removed in conversion programs, for example, to 

 as much as $52 per thousand board feet for in- 

 creased output of southern pine sawtimber and 

 $27 for Douglas-fir sawtimber. The latter figure, 

 derived by adjustments from old-growth timber 

 sales, may be conservative. 



Stumpage prices used in calculations of values 

 of increased harvests on farm and miscellaneous 

 private ownerships in the South, for example, 

 are shown in table 83. These were derived from 

 various local price reports and local studies of 

 value differentials by tree diameter class. 



A second set of estimates of values of potential 

 harvest increases also was developed assuming 

 a higher level of timber products and stumpage 

 prices. These assumed a 30 percent rise in soft- 

 wood lumber and plywood prices over 1970, and 

 an assumed $20 per M board feet increase in 

 stumpage values, except for lodgepole pine for 

 which price increases were assumed to average 

 $12 per M board feet. No adjustments were 

 made for changes in relative costs of intensi- 

 fication, partly because these occur early in the 

 investment period. 



Both price assumptions were used in evaluations 

 of rates of return on investments in intensified 

 management in order to provide some measure 

 of sensitivity to price. Because of the general 

 outlook for increasing prices of timber in future 

 years indicated in Chapter VI, the analysis with 

 the higher price assumption is believed to provide 

 a more realistic view of potential investment 

 returns. 



Ranking Opportunities 



Several indicators of economic ranking of in- 

 vestment opportunities were calculated in this 

 analysis from the schedules of treatment costs and 

 increased yields and values. These included rate of 



2 Weighted average of all conifers except lodgepole 

 pine — based on CY 1971 timber sales in R-l. 



Table 83. — Stumpage prices for timber from farm 

 and miscellaneous ownerships, 1970-71 



Average d.b.h. 

 of timber 



Southern 

 pine 



Eastern white 

 pine 



6. 



Inches 



Cents per cubic foot 



7 

 11 

 12 

 14 

 15 

 17 

 18 

 20 



Cents per cubic foot 

 2 



8 



5 



10 



8 



12 .... .. . 



12 



14 



16 



16 



18 



18. 



20 



20 - 



22 







return on increased investments before income 

 taxes, increases in present net worth, and benefit- 

 cost ratios. 



For the summaries presented below opportuni- 

 ties were evaluated and ranked in terms of rate 

 of return. Most estimates were related to a mini- 

 mum rate of return of 5 percent — an arbitrary 

 rate that might be considered reasonable to illus- 

 trate this type of investment analysis. The oppor- 

 tunities for intensification indicated by this 

 criterion have been designated "most promising," 

 in recognition of the selection process used. 



Increased Yields From Farm and Miscellaneous Private 

 Lands 



Areas. — At 1970-71 average prices and costs, 

 these estimates indicated that about 9 million 

 acres of the 12. 7 million acres studied in detail 

 would return more than 5 percent on additional 

 costs of accelerated management (Append. Ill, 

 table 1). Nearly half of the 9 million acres would 

 yield returns of more than 7.5 percent. An esti- 

 mated 3.7 million acres of the area studied would 

 yield from 2.5 to 5 percent return at 1970-71 

 prices. 



