OPPORTUNITIES FOR INCREASING TIMBER SUPPLIES 



105 



lodgepole pine stands, assuming some increases 

 in prices over 1970 levels. 



Substantial road construction and increased 

 expenditures for timber sales would be necessary 

 to achieve these increases, hence these opportuni- 

 ties were not included in Chapter II under 1970 

 levels of management. Somewhat more than half 

 of these estimated thinning potentials are in the 

 Rocky Mountain area and the remainder on the 

 Pacific Coast. 



Possible Succession of Treatment Programs 



The estimates developed as described above 

 assumed one 10-year program of intensification. 

 In some areas such as the South, it seems likely 

 that programs of similar magnitude could be re- 

 peated in subsequent decades, with reasonably 

 similar increases in yields. The area involved in 

 this preliminary analysis of "most promising" 

 opportunities is a relatively small part of the total 

 commercial timberland. 



In other areas such as the Pacific Coast the ex- 

 tent and mixture of treatment opportunities might 

 be quite different. In assuming "continued" pro- 

 grams it is recognized that errors may be in the 

 direction of overstating opportunities since re- 

 peated programs should in time exhaust the best 

 opportunities, with resulting smaller additions to 

 yields and poorer investment opportunities. 



Increased harvests within the projection period 

 1970-2020 would be obtained from intensification 

 programs conducted in the 1970's and 1980's. A 

 sequence of programs would provide additional 

 harvests but most of these would become avail- 

 able beyond the 50-year projection period of this 

 stud}-. 



Increases from farm and miscellaneous private 

 lands. — An example of continuing programs of 

 intensified reforestation, stand improvement, and 

 commercial thinnings assumed treatment of an 

 estimated 1.3 million acres annually over the next 

 three decades at a cost of S54.6 million per year — 

 an average of 843 per acre (Append. Ill, table 5). 

 Estimates developed as described above indicate 

 this level of activity would return more than 5 

 percent on investments at 1970 prices plus 30 

 percent. 



Projected increases in annual harvests of soft- 

 wood sawtimber with this regime reach 1 billion 

 board feet by the twenty-fifth year and 6.8 billion 

 board feet by the forty-fifth year, as illustrated 

 in figure 45. 



Increases from National Forest lands. — A con- 

 tinuing program of intensification, including stand 

 improvement at the same rate as in the 10-year 

 program and reforestation of 0.84 million acres 

 over a 20-year period, would cover an estimated 

 275 thousand acres annually, at a total cost of 

 S14.5 million per year (Append. Ill, table 6). 

 Increased harvests of softwood sawtimber re- 

 sulting from such continuing efforts are estimated 



Softwood sawtimber supply alternatives 



7Z projected supply wifh intensified 



management of "most promising" 

 opportunities and improved utili2ation 

 (o*wm*t 1970 pricai pfci 30%. 



6C 



projected supply with 1970 management 





hm lm § 





at 1.1 billion board feet by the fifteenth j-ear, in- 

 creasing to over 4 billion board feet per year by 

 the forty-fifth year (fig. 45). 



Summary of Potentials for Intensification of Manage- 

 ment 



Possible increases in harvests from a continuing 

 series of programs of intensified management on 

 lands estimated to represent the "most promising" 

 opportunities for intensification are summarized in 

 figure 45 and table 84. These estimates assume a 

 criterion of 5 percent or more return on invest- 

 ments, prices of softwood lumber and plywood 30 

 percent above 1970 levels, and an allowable cut 

 effect in estimating increases in yields on National 

 Forest lands. 



These selected opportunities would provide an 

 additional 1.6 billion board feet by 1980 and as 

 much as 13 billion board feet by 2020. Estimated 

 annual costs (1970-71 dollars) total $73.7 million 

 for reforestation and stand improvement. Funds 

 for road construction, timber sale administration, 

 and general agency overhead are not included in 

 these figures. The estimated increases in harvests 

 from such a program amount to 3 percent more 

 than projected supplies with 1970 levels of manage- 

 ment by 1980 and 25 percent more by 2020. 



These estimates of potential increases are neces- 

 sarily preliminary. They could be extensively 

 revised as a result of continuing research underway 

 on timber yields and other factors bearing on re- 

 sponse to management. 



General Comparison of Alternatives Studied 



The data summarized in this analysis of the 

 "most promising" available opportunities for 

 intensification beyond 1970 forest management 

 levels indicate that additional program expendi- 

 tures can be made only with progressively lower 

 cost effectiveness. Thus inclusion in the National 



