106 



THE OUTLOOK FOR TIMBER IN THE UNITED STATES 



Table 84. — Projected increases in softwood sawtimber supplies from continuing programs oj intensified 



management oj selected areas 



Ownership 



Area 

 treated 

 annu- 

 ally 



Annual 

 costs 





Increased harvests 



, by year 







1980 



1990 



2000 



2010 



2020 



Nonindustrial private _ _ _._ 



Million 

 acres 

 1,270 



275 

 n.a. 



Million 

 dollars 

 54. 6 



14.5 



0) 



Billion 

 bd. ft. 



0. 1 



.4 



1. 1 



Billion 

 bd. ft. 

 0.2 



1. 1 

 1.4 



BUlion 

 bd. ft. 

 1.0 



2.0 

 1. 7 



Billion 

 bd. ft. 

 3.9 



3.0 

 2.0 



Billion 

 bd.ft. 



6 8 



National Forests: 



Reforestation and stand improvement .. 



4 1 



Commercial thinning __ _ _ 



2 2 







Total 



1.6 



2.7 



4.7 



8.9 



13 1 







1 Requires substantial costs for road construction and timber sale administration. 



Forest analysis of reforestation opportunities 

 that fail to yield 5 percent at 1970 prices plus 

 30 percent would raise annual costs by over 55 

 percent, while increasing harvests by an estimated 

 12 percent in year 45 after program initiation 

 (Append. Ill, table 6). 



This analysis also indicates that estimated 

 future harvest increases from the "most promis- 

 ing" opportunities studied on farm and miscel- 

 laneous private lands come mainly from reforesta- 

 tion. Almost the opposite occurs on National 

 Forests where most of the estimated harvest 

 increases possible with the specified economic 

 criteria are derived from increased timber stand 

 improvement. 



Both a higher general level of profitability on 

 farm and miscellaneous private lands, and the 

 preponderance of reforestation opportunities on 

 these ownerships, are as one would expect. Farm 

 and miscellaneous private lands generally have 

 a higher inherent productivity, especially in the 

 South where over 75 percent of the "most promis- 

 ing" private opportunities occur. Also, National 

 Forest lands are already operated at higher levels 

 of intensification than most farm and miscella- 

 neous private ownerships. 



Additional Managsvent Opportunities 



There are undoubtedly additional opportunities 

 for intensified timber management beyond those 

 indicated in this initial study that would yield 

 more than 5 percent on additional investments. 

 The judgment process of screening promising 

 situations no doubt excluded some areas where 

 intensification would be profitable. With a multi- 

 tude of situations, however, some screening process 

 is essential. Prices higher than assumed in this 

 study would also increase the attractiveness of 

 management intensification. 



In addition, increases in timber growth and 

 harvests are surely obtainable from intensified 

 management on many industrial and other public 

 lands that were not covered in this analysis. 



Further additions to timber supplies might 

 be obtained from such measures as increased 

 forest fertilization, more intensive forest pro- 

 tection against fire, insects, and diseases, and 

 accelerated genetic improvement of planting 

 stock. 



The use of criteria other than the conventional 

 rate-of-return concept used in this illustration of 

 the "most promising" opportunities could also 

 lead to adoption of different programs of forest 

 management than illustrated in this chapter. 

 These might include such economic and social 

 criteria as indirect and secondary benefits from 

 maintenance of a viable forest economy in areas 

 where forest industries are established. Other 

 criteria might include a goal of avoiding adverse 

 economic and environmental impacts resulting 

 from higher timber prices and shifts to competitive 

 materials. Still another goal could aim to assure 

 ample timber supplies than would otherwise 

 exist as a hedge against the long-range future 

 when scarcities of raw materials may be more 

 general . 



Other opportunities for extending timber sup- 

 plies through closer utilization also are outlined 

 in a later section of this chapter. 



AN EXAMPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR INTEN- 

 SIFYING FOREST MANAGEMENT IN THE 

 SOUTHEAST 



Results of this analysis of timber management 

 investment opportunities in the Southeast were 

 included in the national summary just described, 

 but are presented here in greater detail to illus- 

 trate some of the procedures that may be used in 

 investment analyses. 



The Southeast, including Florida, Georgia, 

 South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, is 

 one of the Nation's primary timber producing 

 regions, with forests occupying some 93 million 

 acres, or almost 63 percent of the land area. Be- 

 cause of differences in species composition, site 



